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Quantamental
Equity Research on GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD | Release: 30 Apr 2020
16:06:55 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GODREJCP and BSE CODE:532424 |
Last Close: |
INR 536.45 |
Fair Value: |
INR 167 |
Est. Price by Mar 20: |
INR 693.05 |
Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
54842.16 |
Industry: |
Personal Products |
Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
Upside: |
29% |
Company Profile |
|
Godrej Consumer Products is engaged in a fast moving consumer
goods Company, manufacturing and marketing Household and Personal Care
products.(Source : 201903 Annual Report Page No: 195) |
Compounded Annual Growth |
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Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
10-Year |
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Revenue % |
5% |
7% |
6% |
18% |
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EBIT % |
5% |
22% |
15% |
18% |
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Earnings % |
43% |
41% |
25% |
21% |
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Book Value
% |
16% |
19% |
14% |
23% |
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Stock Total
Return % |
-6% |
14% |
19% |
23% |
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Share holding
pattern |
Particulars |
%age |
|
(A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
63.24 |
|
(B) FII/FPI |
27.74 |
|
(C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
2.22 |
|
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
5.03 |
|
(E) Others |
1.77 |
|
Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
Particulars |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
Price |
122 |
160 |
259 |
286 |
347 |
460 |
557 |
729 |
686 |
693 |
720 |
760 |
815 |
879 |
Return on
Equity |
30% |
26% |
24% |
20% |
21% |
19% |
25% |
26% |
32% |
17% |
17% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
Price to
Earning |
23.8 |
22.5 |
33.3 |
38.5 |
39.1 |
56.8 |
43.7 |
45.6 |
29.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
EVTI |
3.8 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
6.1 |
6.4 |
7.6 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
7.1 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
EVTIFM |
23.8 |
22.5 |
33.3 |
38.5 |
39.1 |
56.8 |
43.7 |
45.6 |
29.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
50.9 |
Price to Book
Value |
7.1 |
5.8 |
8.0 |
7.8 |
8.2 |
11.0 |
10.7 |
11.9 |
9.6 |
8.9 |
8.4 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
8.0 |
Debt to
Equity |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividend Yield |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
Cash Flow to
Firm |
-35% |
1% |
1% |
6% |
3% |
6% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
Detailed Estimates |
Title |
Mar-19 |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
|
Sales |
10,314.34 |
10,176.90 |
10,202.40 |
10,389.49 |
10,744.48 |
11,281.71 |
|
EBITDA |
2,493.52 |
2,260.55 |
2,266.22 |
2,307.77 |
2,386.63 |
2,505.96 |
|
EBIT |
2,323.54 |
2,092.84 |
2,101.73 |
2,146.45 |
2,228.40 |
2,350.78 |
|
PBT |
2,085.33 |
1,854.63 |
1,926.51 |
2,034.41 |
2,180.60 |
2,350.78 |
|
NPAT |
2,341.53 |
1,390.97 |
1,444.88 |
1,525.80 |
1,635.45 |
1,763.08 |
|
Price to
Earning |
29.95 |
50.93 |
50.93 |
50.93 |
50.93 |
50.93 |
|
Price to Book
Value |
9.65 |
8.88 |
8.45 |
8.19 |
8.07 |
8.01 |
|
Debt to
Equity |
0.47 |
0.31 |
0.18 |
0.07 |
- |
- |
|
Return on
Equity |
0.32 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
6.83 |
6.92 |
7.08 |
7.25 |
7.43 |
7.55 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
32.74 |
59.33 |
60.58 |
61.87 |
63.14 |
63.86 |
|
Price or Est.
Share Prices |
686.00 |
693.05 |
719.95 |
760.30 |
814.95 |
878.60 |
|
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DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
Title |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
|
PBT |
1,854.63 |
1,926.51 |
2,034.41 |
2,180.60 |
2,350.78 |
|
Interest |
238.21 |
175.21 |
112.04 |
47.81 |
- |
|
Depreciation |
167.71 |
164.49 |
161.33 |
158.23 |
155.18 |
|
Cash Flow
Before Tax |
2,260.55 |
2,266.22 |
2,307.77 |
2,386.63 |
2,505.96 |
|
Tax Rate |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
|
Cash Flow
After Tax |
1,695.41 |
1,699.66 |
1,730.83 |
1,789.97 |
1,879.47 |
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Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
21,733.07 |
|
Total Cash
Flow |
1,695.41 |
1,699.66 |
1,730.83 |
1,789.97 |
23,612.54 |
|
Present Value of
Cash Flow (Mar-20 E) |
19,558.31 |
|
Debt (Mar-20 E) |
2,487.66 |
|
Value of Equity
(Mar-20 E) |
17,070.65 |
|
Fair Value Per
Share (Mar-20 E) |
167.00 |
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|
Equity |
|
|
|
|
54,842 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
3,382 |
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Beta |
Take from Reuters |
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|
0.58 |
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Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
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|
7% |
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Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
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Interest Paid |
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|
|
|
238 |
|
Tax Benefit |
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|
|
|
-29 |
|
Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
267 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
3,382 |
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Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
Cost of Equity |
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|
|
|
12% |
|
Debt Weight |
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|
|
|
6% |
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Equity Weight |
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|
|
|
94% |
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WACC |
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|
11% |
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Cash Flow of Mar-24 E |
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|
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|
1,879.47 |
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Growth |
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|
2.1% |
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Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
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|
|
|
21,733.07 |
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Peer Comparision |
# |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
Debt
Rs.Cr. |
Cost
of Equity % |
Kd
before tax % |
WACC
% |
Beta |
P/E |
Ann.
ROE % |
CMP
/ BV |
PE/ROE |
PE/ROE/G |
|
|
1 |
Dabur India |
478.25 |
84,510 |
697.48 |
23.55 |
6.53 |
23.40 |
1.39 |
51.28 |
32.32 |
13.74 |
1.59 |
12.07 |
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2 |
Godrej Consumer |
536.45 |
54,842 |
2,581.35 |
17.06 |
7.01 |
16.65 |
0.58 |
24.77 |
28.44 |
7.23 |
0.87 |
11.93 |
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|
3 |
Marico |
289.65 |
37,395 |
359.00 |
19.41 |
13.41 |
19.33 |
0.87 |
30.11 |
37.52 |
10.58 |
0.80 |
7.59 |
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4 |
Emami |
195.90 |
8,893 |
278.25 |
16.75 |
8.21 |
16.43 |
0.57 |
26.28 |
39.48 |
4.60 |
0.67 |
57.38 |
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5 |
Jyothy Labs |
114.00 |
4,186 |
274.39 |
14.22 |
8.43 |
13.80 |
0.21 |
19.60 |
17.81 |
3.25 |
1.10 |
-9.56 |
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6 |
Bajaj Consumer |
146.15 |
2,156 |
68.61 |
13.25 |
9.38 |
13.07 |
-0.37 |
9.74 |
40.26 |
3.72 |
0.24 |
-1.36 |
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