Commodities - Price Vs AISC Cost Analysis
📊 Mining Margins Dashboard
AISC vs Prices (Dec 2025)
Industry-level snapshot of all-in sustaining costs versus recent spot prices. Focus: margin risk and supply response signals for key mined metals.
Data reflects late Dec 2025 spot/3M prices and 2024–25 cost benchmarks from producer reports and industry surveys. Figures are indicative averages; many AISCs net out by-product credits.
Margin Heatmap
High margin (>80%) Mid margin (15–80%) Near/below AISC| Metal | AISC | Price | Abs. Margin | % Margin | Cost Curve | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | ~1,450–1,500 USD/oz | ~4,430 USD/oz | +2,980 | 205% | Mid | High |
| Silver | ~16–18 USD/oz | ~69 USD/oz | +53 | 330% | Mid-high | High |
| Platinum | ~950–1,050 USD/oz | ~2,080 USD/oz | +1,130 | 120% | Mid | High |
| Palladium | ~900–1,100 USD/oz | ~1,760 USD/oz | +860 | 95% | Mid | High |
| Copper | ~6,000–6,600 USD/t | ~11,900 USD/t | +5,900 | 95% | Mid | High |
| Aluminium | ~2,000–2,200 USD/t | ~2,950 USD/t | +950 | 45% | Mid | Mid |
| Iron ore (62% Fe) | ~40–55 USD/t | ~130 USD/t | +90 | 200% | Low Q | High |
| Zinc | ~2,400–2,700 USD/t | ~3,100 USD/t | +700 | 30% | Mid-high | Mid |
| Nickel | ~10,500–12,000 USD/t | ~18,000 USD/t | +7,500 | 70% | Mid | Mid |
| Lead | ~1,900–2,100 USD/t | ~2,000 USD/t | ~0 | ~0% | High | Near AISC |
| Tin | ~18,000–22,000 USD/t | ~43,000 USD/t | +25,000 | 135% | Mid | High |
| Lithium (LCE) | ~7,000–12,000 USD/t | ~13,700 USD/t | +6,700 | 90% | Mid-high | Mid |
| Cobalt | ~30,000–40,000 USD/t | ~35,000 USD/t | ~0 | ~0% | Mid-high | Near AISC |
| Manganese (44%) | ~100–140 USD/t | ~190 USD/t | +90 | 65% | Mid | Mid |
| Graphite | ~600–900 USD/t | ~900 USD/t | ~0 | ~0% | Mid-high | Near AISC |
| Uranium (U₃O₈) | ~45–60 USD/lb | ~95 USD/lb | +50 | 110% | Mid | High |
| Chromium | ~3,000–4,000 USD/t | ~4,500 USD/t | +1,500 | 50% | Mid | Mid |
| Molybdenum | ~8,000–10,000 USD/t | ~22,000 USD/t | +14,000 | 175% | Low-mid | High |
| Vanadium | ~20,000–25,000 USD/t | ~30,000 USD/t | +10,000 | 50% | Mid-high | Mid |
| Rare earths (NdPr) | ~25,000–35,000 USD/t | ~50,000 USD/t | +25,000 | 80% | Mid-high | Mid |
🚨 Investor Signals
💰 Widest Margins (Cash Flow Kings)
- Gold, silver, tin, copper, iron ore: prices 2–4x AISC → aggressive expansion likely
- Uranium, molybdenum: structural deficits driving multi-year FCF
⚠️ Cost Pressure Zones
- Lead, cobalt, graphite: high-cost supply at risk of curtailment → price floor forming
- Marginal lithium/nickel: capex freeze → future supply crunch risk
Portfolio angle: Own low-quartile producers in high-margin metals. High-cost battery/niche = options on supply discipline + policy demand.
Comments
Post a Comment