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Quantamental
Equity Research on RALLIS INDIA LTD | Release: 20 Jan 2020 17:20:36 UTC+05:30
| Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:RALLIS and BSE CODE:500355 |
Last Close: |
INR 193.1 |
Fair Value: |
INR 197.9 |
Est. Price by Mar 20: |
INR 322.25 |
Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
3755.19 |
Industry: |
Agrochemicals |
Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
Upside: |
67% |
Company Profile |
|
Rallis India has been engaged primarily in the business of
manufacture and marketing of Agri Inputs.(Source : 201903 Annual Report Page
No: 135) |
Compounded Annual Growth |
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Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
10-Year |
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Revenue % |
11% |
9% |
3% |
9% |
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EBIT % |
-2% |
4% |
0% |
4% |
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Earnings % |
-7% |
3% |
0% |
4% |
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Book Value
% |
8% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
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Stock Total
Return % |
-31% |
-1% |
-1% |
11% |
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Share holding
pattern |
Particulars |
%age |
|
(A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
50.09 |
|
(B) FII/FPI |
4.41 |
|
(C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
17.90 |
|
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
10.23 |
|
(E) Others |
17.37 |
|
Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
Particulars |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
Price |
131 |
122 |
115 |
173 |
227 |
170 |
260 |
238 |
164 |
322 |
371 |
420 |
458 |
490 |
Return on
Equity |
25% |
18% |
19% |
21% |
19% |
16% |
27% |
14% |
12% |
15% |
16% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
Price to
Earning |
20.2 |
23.9 |
18.9 |
22.2 |
28.1 |
23.1 |
17.0 |
27.6 |
20.5 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
EVTI |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
EVTIFM |
20.2 |
23.9 |
18.9 |
22.2 |
28.1 |
23.1 |
17.0 |
27.6 |
20.5 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
Price to Book
Value |
5.1 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
2.5 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
Debt to
Equity |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividend Yield |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
Cash Flow to
Firm |
-36% |
3% |
6% |
6% |
2% |
5% |
9% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
|
Detailed Estimates |
Title |
Mar-19 |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
|
Sales |
1,983.96 |
2,299.19 |
2,601.92 |
2,873.68 |
3,095.60 |
3,250.38 |
|
EBITDA |
274.40 |
354.74 |
401.45 |
443.37 |
477.61 |
501.49 |
|
EBIT |
228.32 |
301.34 |
344.07 |
383.30 |
416.35 |
445.41 |
|
PBT |
220.26 |
293.28 |
337.24 |
382.37 |
416.35 |
445.41 |
|
NPAT |
155.38 |
220.81 |
253.91 |
287.89 |
313.47 |
335.35 |
|
Price to
Earning |
20.51 |
28.38 |
28.38 |
28.38 |
28.38 |
28.38 |
|
Price to Book
Value |
2.48 |
4.35 |
4.44 |
4.48 |
4.35 |
4.17 |
|
Debt to
Equity |
0.06 |
0.04 |
0.01 |
- |
- |
- |
|
Return on
Equity |
0.12 |
0.15 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.56 |
2.66 |
2.68 |
2.72 |
2.69 |
2.67 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
24.16 |
33.36 |
33.37 |
33.59 |
32.91 |
32.13 |
|
Price or Est.
Share Prices |
163.90 |
322.25 |
370.60 |
420.25 |
457.60 |
489.55 |
|
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DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
Title |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
|
PBT |
293.28 |
337.24 |
382.37 |
416.35 |
445.41 |
|
Interest |
8.06 |
6.84 |
0.93 |
- |
- |
|
Depreciation |
53.40 |
57.37 |
60.07 |
61.27 |
56.09 |
|
Cash Flow
Before Tax |
354.74 |
401.45 |
443.37 |
477.61 |
501.49 |
|
Tax Rate |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
|
Cash Flow
After Tax |
266.05 |
301.08 |
332.53 |
358.21 |
376.12 |
|
Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
4,768.22 |
|
Total Cash
Flow |
266.05 |
301.08 |
332.53 |
358.21 |
5,144.34 |
|
Present Value of
Cash Flow (Mar-20 E) |
3,909.75 |
|
Debt (Mar-20 E) |
61.80 |
|
Value of Equity
(Mar-20 E) |
3,847.96 |
|
Fair Value Per
Share (Mar-20 E) |
197.90 |
|
|
Equity |
|
|
|
|
3,755 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
73 |
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Beta |
Take from Reuters |
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|
0.81 |
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Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
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|
7% |
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Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
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Interest Paid |
|
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|
|
8 |
|
Tax Benefit |
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|
2 |
|
Interest Net of Tax |
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|
6 |
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Debt |
|
|
|
|
73 |
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Cost of Debt |
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|
|
8% |
|
Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
13% |
|
Debt Weight |
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|
|
|
2% |
|
Equity Weight |
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|
|
|
98% |
|
WACC |
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|
13% |
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Cash Flow of Mar-24 E |
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|
|
|
376.12 |
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Growth |
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|
5.0% |
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Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
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|
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|
4,768.22 |
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Peer Comparision |
# |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
Debt
Rs.Cr. |
Cost
of Equity % |
Kd
before tax % |
WACC
% |
Beta |
P/E |
Ann.
ROE % |
CMP
/ BV |
PE/ROE |
PE/ROE/G |
|
|
1 |
UPL |
588.10 |
44,934 |
31,066.00 |
15.10 |
7.35 |
11.80 |
-0.35 |
38.21 |
3.01 |
3.12 |
12.71 |
-21.40 |
|
|
2 |
P I Inds. |
1,465.95 |
20,257 |
0.10 |
21.90 |
7.50 |
21.90 |
1.21 |
44.21 |
25.06 |
8.17 |
1.76 |
5.84 |
|
|
3 |
Rallis India |
193.10 |
3,755 |
67.64 |
21.21 |
14.46 |
21.02 |
0.87 |
19.46 |
13.79 |
2.73 |
1.41 |
0.81 |
|
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4 |
Bharat Rasayan |
6,396.05 |
2,718 |
185.75 |
55.57 |
11.26 |
52.53 |
4.11 |
18.13 |
58.19 |
5.39 |
0.31 |
0.56 |
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5 |
Sharda Cropchem |
268.50 |
2,422 |
0.09 |
8.52 |
7.50 |
8.52 |
-0.41 |
16.93 |
-2.04 |
1.89 |
-8.31 |
6.17 |
|
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6 |
Dhanuka Agritech |
444.20 |
2,113 |
7.05 |
32.55 |
7.50 |
32.46 |
1.92 |
18.21 |
45.61 |
2.96 |
0.40 |
4.43 |
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