|
Quantamental
Equity Research on IOL CHEMICALS & PHARMACEUTICALS LTD | Release: 04 Jan
2020 15:49:20 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:IOLCP and BSE CODE:524164 |
| Last Close: |
INR 174.95 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 278.8 |
| Est. Price by Mar 20: |
INR 274.15 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
995.25 |
| Industry: |
Pharmaceuticals |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
59% |
| Company Profile |
|
| IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals is engaged in the
manufacturing and selling of APIs / bulk drugs and speciality
chemicals.(Source : 201903 Annual Report Page No: 40) |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Revenue % |
71% |
20% |
26% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| EBIT % |
305% |
1591% |
492% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Earnings % |
755% |
-691% |
7073% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Book Value
% |
120% |
156% |
151% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
140% |
150% |
888% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
0.00 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.00 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
0.00 |
|
| (E) Others |
100.00 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
| Price |
39 |
25 |
26 |
19 |
29 |
76 |
63 |
80 |
191 |
274 |
298 |
299 |
298 |
296 |
| Return on
Equity |
4% |
3% |
1% |
2% |
-33% |
-22% |
2% |
13% |
50% |
45% |
33% |
25% |
20% |
16% |
| Price to
Earning |
16.2 |
13.6 |
42.7 |
16.9 |
-2.0 |
-10.7 |
75.8 |
16.2 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
| EVTI |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
| EVTIFM |
16.2 |
13.6 |
42.7 |
16.9 |
-2.0 |
-10.7 |
75.8 |
16.2 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
| Price to Book
Value |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
| Debt to
Equity |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-7% |
-7% |
20% |
29% |
-11% |
-2% |
12% |
12% |
19% |
29% |
45% |
69% |
150% |
-751% |
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-19 |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
|
| Sales |
1,685.33 |
2,022.52 |
2,123.65 |
2,229.83 |
2,341.33 |
2,458.39 |
|
| EBITDA |
420.02 |
610.43 |
609.10 |
606.11 |
601.29 |
594.48 |
|
| EBIT |
387.57 |
571.49 |
565.82 |
566.67 |
565.36 |
561.74 |
|
| PBT |
336.15 |
520.07 |
564.69 |
566.67 |
565.36 |
561.74 |
|
| NPAT |
236.70 |
390.05 |
423.52 |
425.00 |
424.02 |
421.30 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
4.58 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.29 |
1.80 |
1.31 |
0.99 |
0.79 |
0.66 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.60 |
0.01 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.50 |
0.45 |
0.33 |
0.25 |
0.20 |
0.16 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
0.81 |
0.77 |
0.59 |
0.36 |
0.16 |
-0.03 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
5.21 |
3.79 |
3.06 |
1.98 |
0.91 |
-0.18 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
190.70 |
274.15 |
297.70 |
298.75 |
298.10 |
296.20 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
Mar-24 E |
|
| PBT |
520.07 |
564.69 |
566.67 |
565.36 |
561.74 |
|
| Interest |
51.42 |
1.13 |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
38.94 |
43.28 |
39.44 |
35.94 |
32.75 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
610.43 |
609.10 |
606.11 |
601.29 |
594.48 |
|
| Tax Rate |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
25.00 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
457.83 |
456.83 |
454.58 |
450.97 |
445.86 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
861.51 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
457.83 |
456.83 |
454.58 |
450.97 |
1,307.37 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow (Mar-20 E) |
1,592.01 |
|
| Debt (Mar-20 E) |
6.25 |
|
| Value of Equity
(Mar-20 E) |
1,585.77 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share (Mar-20 E) |
278.80 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
995 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
284 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
51 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
36 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
284 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
13% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
22% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
22% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
78% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-24 E |
|
|
|
|
445.86 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
-0.5% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
861.51 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| S.No. |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
Debt
Rs.Cr. |
Cost
of Equity % |
Kd
before tax % |
WACC
% |
Beta |
P/E |
Annualized
ROE % |
CMP
/ BV |
PE/ROE |
PE/ROE/G |
|
|
| 1 |
Sun Pharma.Inds. |
444.60 |
1,06,674 |
7,474.17 |
14.92 |
5.41 |
14.24 |
0.37 |
24.64 |
12.43 |
2.46 |
1.98 |
3.44 |
|
|
| 2 |
Dr Reddy's Labs |
2,883.90 |
47,919 |
2,559.20 |
30.88 |
2.85 |
29.45 |
1.74 |
17.50 |
38.39 |
3.11 |
0.46 |
0.40 |
|
|
| 3 |
Cipla |
469.95 |
37,889 |
3,557.40 |
17.28 |
4.89 |
16.09 |
0.57 |
22.98 |
15.25 |
2.43 |
1.51 |
6.03 |
|
|
| 4 |
Biocon |
300.95 |
36,114 |
2,317.00 |
17.39 |
2.83 |
16.48 |
0.79 |
46.27 |
16.70 |
5.66 |
2.77 |
-11.26 |
|
|
| 5 |
Piramal Enterp. |
1,523.90 |
34,371 |
35,466.31 |
12.18 |
13.34 |
9.42 |
-0.08 |
16.51 |
10.44 |
1.29 |
1.58 |
9.16 |
|
|
| 6 |
Torrent Pharma. |
1,900.10 |
32,153 |
4,309.00 |
10.67 |
9.17 |
10.21 |
0.10 |
37.92 |
25.15 |
6.34 |
1.51 |
4.15 |
|
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