|
Quantamental
Equity Research on GUJARAT AMBUJA EXPORTS LTD | Release: 19 Feb 2019 16:38:01
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GAEL and BSE CODE:524226 |
Last Close: |
INR 208.1 |
Fair Value: |
INR 279.85 |
Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 259.35 |
Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
2386.23 |
Industry: |
Other Agricultural Products |
Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
Upside: |
34% |
Company Profile |
|
|
Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited offers Raw and Refine Soya Oil,
Maize Starch, Soya De-Oiled Cake and Liquid Glucose. The Company's segments
include Cotton Yarn, Maize Processing, Agro Processing, Power and
Others.
|
Growth Per Share |
|
|
Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
Revenue % |
1% |
50% |
60% |
|
EBIT % |
13% |
122% |
49% |
|
Earnings % |
13% |
114% |
59% |
|
Book Value
% |
20% |
24% |
56% |
|
Stock Total
Return % |
112% |
562% |
1013% |
|
|
Share holding
pattern |
Particulars |
%age |
|
(A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
63.76 |
|
(B) FII/FPI |
1.50 |
|
(C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.79 |
|
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
22.40 |
|
(E) Others |
11.55 |
|
Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
Price |
20 |
34 |
22 |
24 |
32 |
41 |
47 |
129 |
272 |
259 |
294 |
336 |
374 |
402 |
|
Return on
Equity |
14% |
19% |
9% |
17% |
15% |
10% |
11% |
19% |
18% |
18% |
17% |
16% |
15% |
14% |
|
Price to
Earning |
4.5 |
5.0 |
6.1 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
9.3 |
17.4 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
|
EVTI |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
|
EVTIFM |
4.5 |
5.0 |
6.1 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
9.3 |
17.4 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
|
Price to Book
Value |
0.6 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
Debt to
Equity |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Dividend
Yield |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Cash Flow to
Firm |
-23% |
5% |
-20% |
53% |
-20% |
19% |
5% |
-2% |
2% |
7% |
10% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
|
|
Detailed
Estimates |
Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
Sales |
3,364.43 |
3,735.98 |
4,092.11 |
4,420.37 |
4,708.17 |
4,943.58 |
|
EBITDA |
326.39 |
429.51 |
470.46 |
508.20 |
541.28 |
568.35 |
|
EBIT |
250.10 |
344.80 |
385.07 |
431.57 |
472.52 |
506.63 |
|
PBT |
232.16 |
326.86 |
370.13 |
423.01 |
471.21 |
506.63 |
|
NPAT |
179.88 |
215.76 |
244.32 |
279.23 |
311.04 |
334.43 |
|
Price to
Earning |
17.36 |
13.78 |
13.78 |
13.78 |
13.78 |
13.78 |
|
Price to Book
Value |
3.05 |
2.43 |
2.31 |
2.24 |
2.13 |
1.98 |
|
Debt to
Equity |
0.63 |
0.44 |
0.21 |
0.03 |
- |
- |
|
Return on
Equity |
0.18 |
0.18 |
0.17 |
0.16 |
0.15 |
0.14 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.10 |
0.93 |
0.88 |
0.87 |
0.85 |
0.81 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
20.18 |
16.14 |
15.13 |
14.31 |
13.57 |
12.66 |
|
Price or Est.
Share Prices |
272.38 |
259.35 |
293.70 |
335.70 |
373.95 |
402.10 |
|
|
DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
PBT |
326.86 |
370.13 |
423.01 |
471.21 |
506.63 |
|
Interest |
17.94 |
14.94 |
8.56 |
1.31 |
- |
|
Depreciation |
84.72 |
85.38 |
76.63 |
68.77 |
61.72 |
|
Cash Flow
Before Tax |
429.51 |
470.46 |
508.20 |
541.28 |
568.35 |
|
Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
Cash Flow
After Tax |
283.52 |
310.55 |
335.46 |
357.30 |
375.17 |
|
Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
4,191.50 |
|
Total Cash
Flow |
283.52 |
310.55 |
335.46 |
357.30 |
4,566.66 |
|
Present Value of
Cash Flow |
3,208.77 |
|
Debt |
- |
|
Value of Equity |
3,208.77 |
|
Fair Value Per
Share |
279.85 |
|
|
Equity |
|
|
|
|
2,386 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
647 |
|
|
Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
18 |
|
Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
14 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
647 |
|
Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
2% |
|
Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
18% |
|
Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
21% |
|
Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
79% |
|
WACC |
|
|
|
|
15% |
|
|
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
375.17 |
|
Growth |
|
|
|
|
5.6% |
|
Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
4,191.50 |
|
|
Peer Comparision |
# |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
Unpledged
Prom Hold % |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
1 |
Guj. Ambuja Exp |
208.10 |
2,386 |
95.61 |
40.78 |
15.80 |
0.63 |
9.09 |
2.18 |
9.72 |
0.63 |
0.38 |
38.70 |
30.99 |
4,718 |
63.76 |
30 |
51.68 |
15.74 |
142.79 |
27.31 |
214.66 |
2 |
BCL Industries |
93.35 |
163 |
94.79 |
44.72 |
12.70 |
0.35 |
7.27 |
0.98 |
4.16 |
1.69 |
- |
44.72 |
51.68 |
981 |
60.24 |
18 |
20.05 |
4.39 |
-34.05 |
137.45 |
223.54 |
3 |
Agro Tech Foods. |
574.85 |
1,401 |
143.68 |
14.80 |
14.78 |
1.56 |
38.86 |
4.00 |
42.35 |
- |
0.43 |
11.95 |
12.08 |
867 |
51.77 |
162 |
2.12 |
0.39 |
9.80 |
10.41 |
213.88 |
4 |
AVT Natural Prod |
22.05 |
336 |
16.30 |
10.93 |
12.85 |
0.95 |
13.52 |
1.35 |
16.75 |
0.09 |
1.81 |
7.82 |
7.99 |
331 |
74.36 |
73 |
8.09 |
20.60 |
32.68 |
18.68 |
21.92 |
5 |
Kriti Nutrients |
31.65 |
159 |
12.46 |
50.01 |
38.83 |
0.38 |
8.70 |
2.54 |
8.54 |
0.55 |
0.57 |
47.16 |
65.49 |
485 |
66.06 |
31 |
5.08 |
-5.97 |
27.32 |
-19.52 |
32.25 |
6 |
Gokul Refoils |
11.70 |
154 |
20.71 |
- |
7.20 |
- |
- |
0.56 |
9.61 |
1.13 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
74.47 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
17.93 |
Comments
Post a Comment