|
Quantamental
Equity Research on TATA METALIKS LTD | Release: 15 Jan 2019 23:07:58
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:TATAMETALI and BSE CODE:513434 |
| Last Close: |
INR 625.1 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 750.2 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 562.8 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
1580.88 |
| Industry: |
Iron & Steel/Interm.Products |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
20% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Tata Metaliks is a subsidiary of Tata Steel Limited. The
Company is engaged in the manufacture and sale of pig iron and ductile iron
pipes. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
34% |
70% |
59% |
|
| EBIT % |
30% |
77% |
-829% |
|
| Earnings % |
37% |
90% |
-392% |
|
| Book Value
% |
73% |
305% |
-1189% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
23% |
545% |
1813% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
50.09 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
2.50 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
14.23 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
26.29 |
|
| (E) Others |
6.89 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
151 |
121 |
67 |
43 |
57 |
126 |
108 |
664 |
814 |
563 |
684 |
810 |
933 |
1050 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
51% |
20% |
-420% |
166% |
683% |
94% |
113% |
56% |
44% |
29% |
27% |
24% |
22% |
20% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
8.4 |
13.3 |
-1.9 |
-2.0 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
2.4 |
14.5 |
12.9 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
|
| EVTI |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
|
| EVTIFM |
8.4 |
13.3 |
-1.9 |
-2.0 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
2.4 |
14.5 |
12.9 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
4.3 |
2.7 |
7.8 |
-3.3 |
25.5 |
3.6 |
2.8 |
8.1 |
5.7 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
2.3 |
3.0 |
20.5 |
- |
43.4 |
2.4 |
4.1 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
45% |
-11% |
-11% |
29% |
60% |
24% |
-21% |
-2% |
7% |
10% |
12% |
14% |
18% |
19% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,894.21 |
2,227.77 |
2,549.83 |
2,838.08 |
3,069.45 |
3,222.92 |
|
| EBITDA |
297.54 |
327.36 |
374.69 |
417.05 |
451.05 |
473.60 |
|
| EBIT |
248.47 |
269.65 |
312.28 |
351.52 |
384.31 |
413.18 |
|
| PBT |
200.38 |
221.56 |
269.42 |
318.81 |
367.25 |
413.18 |
|
| NPAT |
159.18 |
146.25 |
177.84 |
210.45 |
242.42 |
272.74 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
12.94 |
9.73 |
9.73 |
9.73 |
9.73 |
9.73 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
5.74 |
2.86 |
2.59 |
2.36 |
2.15 |
1.95 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.33 |
0.85 |
0.48 |
0.19 |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.44 |
0.29 |
0.27 |
0.24 |
0.22 |
0.20 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.32 |
0.82 |
0.79 |
0.77 |
0.72 |
0.69 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
14.18 |
11.70 |
11.24 |
10.78 |
10.04 |
9.30 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
814.49 |
562.80 |
684.40 |
809.90 |
932.95 |
1,049.70 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
221.56 |
269.42 |
318.81 |
367.25 |
413.18 |
|
| Interest |
48.09 |
42.86 |
32.71 |
17.07 |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
57.71 |
62.41 |
65.53 |
66.73 |
60.42 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
327.36 |
374.69 |
417.05 |
451.05 |
473.60 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
216.09 |
247.33 |
275.29 |
297.74 |
312.62 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
2,317.55 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
216.09 |
247.33 |
275.29 |
297.74 |
2,630.18 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
1,897.22 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
1,897.22 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
750.20 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
1,581 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
475 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.69 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
48 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
38 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
475 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
23% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
77% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
17% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
312.62 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
3.5% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
2,317.55 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
Unpledged
Prom Hold % |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Tata Metaliks |
625.10 |
1,581 |
169.16 |
53.18 |
31.55 |
0.93 |
10.83 |
3.70 |
9.18 |
1.33 |
0.48 |
50.64 |
70.67 |
2,191 |
50.09 |
41 |
-0.19 |
11.53 |
-16.62 |
-1.78 |
509.07 |
| 2 |
Kirl. Ferrous |
87.80 |
1,206 |
44.55 |
24.00 |
9.83 |
0.59 |
11.09 |
1.97 |
19.01 |
0.12 |
1.42 |
13.16 |
10.35 |
2,164 |
59.56 |
46 |
8.88 |
31.82 |
158.89 |
148.90 |
68.05 |
| 3 |
Mideast Int. Stl |
16.85 |
232 |
30.25 |
- |
12.36 |
- |
- |
0.56 |
- |
1.18 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
46.46 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| 4 |
Sathavaha. Ispat |
9.25 |
47 |
-48.99 |
107.94 |
-20.55 |
1.82 |
-87.66 |
- |
- |
-6.40 |
- |
107.94 |
251.07 |
531 |
27.72 |
-1 |
76.33 |
205.60 |
-14.87 |
32.51 |
243.27 |
| 5 |
Jindal Stain. |
33.15 |
1,589 |
50.21 |
-6.98 |
14.22 |
0.48 |
12.26 |
0.66 |
4.36 |
2.01 |
- |
-6.98 |
-6.00 |
12,142 |
9.41 |
166 |
-2.08 |
18.16 |
-140.11 |
-12.60 |
86.09 |
| 6 |
Prakash Inds. |
96.95 |
1,584 |
190.13 |
26.07 |
14.34 |
0.57 |
3.55 |
0.51 |
2.67 |
0.30 |
- |
26.07 |
25.14 |
4,117 |
14.69 |
11 |
7.94 |
41.30 |
8.10 |
39.44 |
399.83 |
Comments
Post a Comment