SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on SUPREME INDUSTRIES LTD | Release: 06 Jan 2019 18:19:35 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:SUPREMEIND and BSE CODE:509930
Last Close:  INR 1085.55
Fair Value:  INR 960
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 1690.1
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  13789.40
Industry:  Plastic Products
Rating:  STRONG BUY
Upside:  56%
Company Profile
 Company is engaged in manufacturing various plastic products like Plastic Piping System, Industrial and Engineering Molded products, Storage and Material Handling Products, Plastic Molded Furniture, Protective Packaging Products, Cross Laminated Film and products thereof, Performance packaging Film and Composite LPG Cylinders etc
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 11% 24% 44%  
EBIT % 2% 18% 38%  
Earnings % 0% 34% 49%  
Book Value %  12% 56% 116%  
Stock Total Return %  17% 96% 260%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 49.70  
(B) FII/FPI 7.25  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 22.06  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 14.35  
(E) Others 6.64  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 117 197 231 351 568 646 776 1081 1265 1690 2056 2380 2636 2854  
Return on Equity 38% 36% 35% 33% 27% 27% 17% 25% 23% 26% 26% 25% 24% 22%  
Price to Earning  9.5 12.8 12.1 15.4 25.5 25.5 44.5 31.9 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2  
EVTI 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.0 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8  
EVTIFM 9.5 12.8 12.1 15.4 25.5 25.5 44.5 31.9 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2  
Price to Book Value 3.6 4.6 4.2 5.1 7.0 6.8 7.5 8.1 8.5 9.5 9.7 9.5 8.9 8.3  
Debt to Equity  0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
Dividend Yield 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%  
Cash Flow to Firm 7% 4% 14% 4% 5% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       4,966.29       5,963.62       6,936.37       7,806.26       8,490.90       8,915.45  
EBITDA          796.38       1,030.82       1,198.96       1,349.32       1,467.67       1,541.05  
EBIT          629.23          830.10          986.14       1,131.69       1,253.32       1,356.83  
PBT          602.79          803.66          977.60       1,131.69       1,253.32       1,356.83  
NPAT          431.75          576.80          701.64          812.24          899.53          973.82  
Price to Earning             37.22            37.22            37.22            37.22            37.22            37.22  
Price to Book Value              8.48              9.53              9.71              9.47              8.92              8.32  
Debt to Equity               0.13              0.04                  -                    -                    -                    -    
Return on Equity              0.23              0.26              0.26              0.25              0.24              0.22  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              3.24              3.57              3.70              3.76              3.75              3.80  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            36.53            36.60            37.07            36.93            36.24            35.59  
Price or Est. Share Prices       1,265.07       1,690.10       2,055.90       2,380.00       2,635.80       2,853.50  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          803.66          977.60       1,131.69       1,253.32       1,356.83  
Interest            26.44              8.54                  -                    -                    -    
Depreciation          200.72          212.82          217.63          214.34          184.22  
Cash Flow Before Tax       1,030.82       1,198.96       1,349.32       1,467.67       1,541.05  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          680.44          791.43          890.69          968.81       1,017.25  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                      -       16,475.02  
Total Cash Flow          680.44          791.43          890.69          968.81     17,492.26  
Present Value of Cash Flow     12,194.56  
Debt                  -    
Value of Equity     12,194.56  
Fair Value Per Share          960.00  
Equity          13,789
Debt               248
Beta Take from Reuters 0.71
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 7%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 7%
Interest Paid                 26
Tax Benefit                   9
Interest Net of Tax                 17
Debt               248
Cost of Debt 7%
Cost of Equity 13%
Debt Weight 2%
Equity Weight 98%
WACC 12%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E       1,017.25
Growth 6.2%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow     16,475.02
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income Unpledged Prom Hold % PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  Supreme Inds.        1,085.55          13,789          157.60            27.71            30.41              2.61            31.65              6.89            28.19              0.13              1.11            17.93            20.32            5,287            49.70               135             -2.20            24.75           -21.33            51.48          383.24
   2  Finolex Inds.           533.50            6,621          216.56            13.76            16.88              2.32            19.04              2.46            17.06              0.04              1.87              8.04            25.90            2,220            52.46               103           -34.45            14.17           -26.02          170.23          381.25
   3  Jain Irrigation             66.35            3,385            85.28              2.38              9.32              0.95            21.09              0.78            12.67              1.02              1.52              1.82              1.75            7,686            20.87              -635             -8.05            20.35           -74.12            98.87            99.79
   4  Astral Poly        1,178.90          14,124            97.67            22.11            23.51              5.63            70.50            12.07            72.87              0.19              0.05            21.20            18.33            2,535            58.49               347            31.91            21.66            21.20            15.86          188.45
   5  Time Technoplast           103.35            2,337            68.16            10.48            15.72              0.92            15.43              1.52            13.21              0.53              0.77              9.43              8.26            3,311            44.35                 74              5.89            14.17           -27.02           -24.71          109.58
   6  Nilkamal Ltd        1,457.65            2,175          561.15            15.34            23.23              0.90            23.76              2.60            17.75              0.12              0.89            12.79            11.08            2,473            63.97               107              7.32            32.06           -18.95           -10.56       1,018.07

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