NILKAMAL LTD - Quantamental Equity Research Report

Quantamental Equity Research on NILKAMAL LTD | Release: 06 Jan 2019 18:34:46 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:NILKAMAL and BSE CODE:523385
Last Close:  INR 1457.65
Fair Value:  INR 1487.8
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 1116.8
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  2174.81
Industry:  Plastic Products
Rating:  NEUTRAL
Upside:  2%
Company Profile
Nilkamal Limited is a holding company engaged in the manufacturing of plastic products and retail sales.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 6% 29% 15%  
EBIT % 6% 110% 124%  
Earnings % -1% 176% 275%  
Book Value %  14% 62% 86%  
Stock Total Return %  -17% 284% 881%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 63.97  
(B) FII/FPI 3.52  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 12.83  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 11.93  
(E) Others 7.75  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 267 312 224 172 209 440 1231 2042 1688 1117 1344 1597 1864 2209  
Return on Equity 19% 15% 14% 7% 9% 9% 18% 17% 15% 12% 13% 14% 14% 15%  
Price to Earning  7.2 8.9 6.0 8.2 7.8 15.5 17.5 25.7 21.5 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4  
EVTI 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8  
EVTIFM 7.2 8.9 6.0 8.2 7.8 15.5 17.5 25.7 21.5 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4  
Price to Book Value 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.3 3.1 4.4 3.2 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2  
Debt to Equity  1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0  
Dividend Yield 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%  
Cash Flow to Firm 12% -2% 3% 8% 27% 23% 10% 3% 3% 2% 4% 7% 10% 10%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       2,071.17       2,578.33       3,084.06       3,538.75       3,888.09       4,082.49  
EBITDA          242.67          240.03          287.11          329.44          361.96          380.06  
EBIT          194.20          179.69          222.85          264.13          298.77          328.24  
PBT          178.75          164.24          197.62          234.91          274.12          324.85  
NPAT          117.11          108.42          130.46          155.08          180.96          214.45  
Price to Earning             21.52            15.37            15.37            15.37            15.37            15.37  
Price to Book Value              3.16              1.87              2.00              2.11              2.16              2.25  
Debt to Equity               0.12              0.17              0.18              0.13              0.02                  -    
Return on Equity              0.15              0.12              0.13              0.14              0.14              0.15  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              1.24              0.69              0.70              0.71              0.71              0.76  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            21.65            16.08            15.59            15.29            14.98            15.26  
Price or Est. Share Prices       1,688.50       1,116.80       1,343.85       1,597.45       1,864.10       2,209.10  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          164.24          197.62          234.91          274.12          324.85  
Interest            15.45            25.23            29.22            24.65              3.39  
Depreciation            60.34            64.26            65.31            63.19            51.82  
Cash Flow Before Tax          240.03          287.11          329.44          361.96          380.06  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          158.44          189.52          217.46          238.93          250.88  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                      -         3,376.06  
Total Cash Flow          158.44          189.52          217.46          238.93       3,626.93  
Present Value of Cash Flow       2,219.78  
Debt                  -    
Value of Equity       2,219.78  
Fair Value Per Share       1,487.80  
Equity            2,175
Debt                 93
Beta Take from Reuters 1.31
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 7%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 7%
Interest Paid                 15
Tax Benefit                   5
Interest Net of Tax                 10
Debt                 93
Cost of Debt 11%
Cost of Equity 17%
Debt Weight 4%
Equity Weight 96%
WACC 17%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E          250.88
Growth 8.3%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow       3,376.06
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income Unpledged Prom Hold % PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  Supreme Inds.        1,085.55          13,789          157.60            27.71            30.41              2.61            31.65              6.89            28.19              0.13              1.11            17.93            20.32            5,287            49.70               135             -2.20            24.75           -21.33            51.48          383.24
   2  Finolex Inds.           533.50            6,621          216.56            13.76            16.88              2.32            19.04              2.46            17.06              0.04              1.87              8.04            25.90            2,220            52.46               103           -34.45            14.17           -26.02          170.23          381.25
   3  Jain Irrigation             66.35            3,385            85.28              2.38              9.32              0.95            21.09              0.78            12.67              1.02              1.52              1.82              1.75            7,686            20.87              -635             -8.05            20.35           -74.12            98.87            99.79
   4  Astral Poly        1,178.90          14,124            97.67            22.11            23.51              5.63            70.50            12.07            72.87              0.19              0.05            21.20            18.33            2,535            58.49               347            31.91            21.66            21.20            15.86          188.45
   5  Time Technoplast           103.35            2,337            68.16            10.48            15.72              0.92            15.43              1.52            13.21              0.53              0.77              9.43              8.26            3,311            44.35                 74              5.89            14.17           -27.02           -24.71          109.58
   6  Nilkamal Ltd        1,457.65            2,175          561.15            15.34            23.23              0.90            23.76              2.60            17.75              0.12              0.89            12.79            11.08            2,473            63.97               107              7.32            32.06           -18.95           -10.56       1,018.07

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