L T FOODS LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on L T FOODS LTD | Release: 29 Jan 2019 14:06:11 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:DAAWAT and BSE CODE:532783
Last Close:  INR 36.2
Fair Value:  INR 72.35
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 65.65
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  1157.84
Industry:  Packaged Foods
Rating:  STRONG BUY
Upside:  100%
Company Profile
LT Foods is a branded specialty foods company. The Company is engaged in milling, processing and marketing of branded and non-branded basmati rice, and manufacturing of rice food products in the domestic and overseas market.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 11% 33% 65%  
EBIT % 3% 38% 81%  
Earnings % 15% 86% 140%  
Book Value %  77% 155% 280%  
Stock Total Return %  43% 676% 1736%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 56.03  
(B) FII/FPI 1.59  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 12.70  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 15.11  
(E) Others 14.57  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 7 5 4 5 11 12 23 65 93 66 74 86 97 108  
Return on Equity 11% 9% 0% 18% 20% 16% 13% 18% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%  
Price to Earning  6.4 6.0 -86.1 2.4 3.5 4.4 8.5 14.9 22.2 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0  
EVTI 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9  
EVTIFM 6.4 6.0 -86.1 2.4 3.5 4.4 8.5 14.9 22.2 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0  
Price to Book Value 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 2.6 2.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6  
Debt to Equity  3.4 4.4 4.8 4.5 3.8 3.7 3.0 2.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6  
Dividend Yield 3% 2% 0% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%  
Cash Flow to Firm -6% -17% -1143% -1% 7% 3% 21% 7% -1% 6% 8% 8% 9% 9%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       3,613.70       3,980.33       4,332.95       4,661.07       4,954.08       5,201.79  
EBITDA          412.50          463.96          505.07          543.31          577.47          606.34  
EBIT          362.38          408.76          449.39          492.82          531.67          564.80  
PBT          215.80          262.18          296.69          342.43          387.09          429.98  
NPAT          134.66          161.37          182.61          210.76          238.25          264.65  
Price to Earning             22.17            13.01            13.01            13.01            13.01            13.01  
Price to Book Value              2.53              1.57              1.57              1.60              1.60              1.57  
Debt to Equity               1.31              1.21              1.05              0.89              0.73              0.58  
Return on Equity              0.11              0.12              0.12              0.12              0.12              0.12  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              1.24              0.92              0.90              0.90              0.90              0.89  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            23.79            17.54            17.04            16.74            16.45            16.14  
Price or Est. Share Prices            93.33            65.65            74.30            85.80            97.00          107.75  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          262.18          296.69          342.43          387.09          429.98  
Interest          146.58          152.70          150.39          144.58          134.81  
Depreciation            55.20            55.67            50.50            45.80            41.55  
Cash Flow Before Tax          463.96          505.07          543.31          577.47          606.34  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          306.26          333.39          358.64          381.19          400.25  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                    -         3,938.66  
Total Cash Flow          306.26          333.39          358.64          381.19       4,338.91  
Present Value of Cash Flow       3,585.39  
Debt       1,272.27  
Value of Equity       2,313.12  
Fair Value Per Share            72.35  
Equity            1,158
Debt            1,548
Beta Take from Reuters 1.47
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 7%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 7%
Interest Paid               147
Tax Benefit                 48
Interest Net of Tax                 98
Debt            1,548
Cost of Debt 6%
Cost of Equity 18%
Debt Weight 57%
Equity Weight 43%
WACC 11%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E          400.25
Growth 0.0%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow       3,938.66
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income Unpledged Prom Hold % PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  KRBL           333.00            7,838          105.37            35.68            22.18              1.80            14.72              3.16            16.48              0.54              0.69            31.23            21.64            5,002            58.81                 52            67.43            74.04            57.14            52.24          218.84
   2  Varun Beverages           779.60          14,239          115.12            11.57            12.08              3.60            57.46              6.77            48.84              1.50              0.32              9.05              8.65            4,668            73.47               346          -43.39            21.00          -86.07            28.59          203.32
   3  Sanwaria Consum.               9.90               729              7.74            47.92            16.33              0.32              6.91              1.28              4.74              2.17              0.51            45.84            51.22            5,224            54.10                 17              0.79              2.29            -0.67            70.65            19.08
   4  Zydus Wellness        1,300.50            5,081          184.39            31.06            22.80              7.66            32.68              7.05            36.22              0.04              0.62            23.81            29.59               594            72.54               159            -3.38            11.87            63.86            16.40          385.01
   5  L T Foods             36.20            1,158            39.30            14.75            14.49              0.71            13.49              0.92              8.27              1.31              0.41            14.22            13.92            3,730            52.66                 38            10.45              8.80            -5.79              2.53            61.81
   6  Parag Milk Foods           213.90            1,799            91.03            21.57            16.73              0.89            14.54              2.35            16.31              0.41              0.35            20.01            18.50            2,300            39.27                 62              4.38            13.67              7.64            22.21          164.11

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