|
Quantamental
Equity Research on JINDAL STAINLESS (HISAR) LTD | Release: 18 Jan 2019
11:48:59 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:JSLHISAR and BSE CODE:539597 |
| Last Close: |
INR 86.1 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 103.2 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 74.5 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
2031.40 |
| Industry: |
Iron & Steel Products |
| Rating: |
BUY |
| Upside: |
20% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Jindal Stainless (Hisar) Ltd is an India-based manufacturer of
stainless steel. The Company is a producer of stainless steel strips for
razor blades and coin blanks. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
34% |
8% |
|
|
| EBIT % |
36% |
118% |
|
|
| Earnings % |
81% |
3112% |
|
|
| Book Value
% |
46% |
128% |
|
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
29% |
|
|
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
57.66 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
21.16 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
2.89 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
9.08 |
|
| (E) Others |
9.21 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
|
|
|
|
|
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
32 |
142 |
183 |
75 |
82 |
89 |
96 |
104 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
|
|
|
|
|
2% |
4% |
25% |
32% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
|
|
|
|
|
|
30.1 |
15.4 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
|
| EVTI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
| EVTIFM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
30.1 |
15.4 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.2 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
|
|
|
|
|
1.6 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
|
|
|
|
|
-121% |
-21% |
-13% |
20% |
35% |
34% |
32% |
31% |
29% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
9,258.67 |
8,845.37 |
8,450.51 |
8,073.29 |
7,712.90 |
7,368.60 |
|
| EBITDA |
1,270.13 |
1,062.07 |
972.41 |
888.63 |
810.40 |
737.38 |
|
| EBIT |
1,003.53 |
807.37 |
747.67 |
690.33 |
635.43 |
582.99 |
|
| PBT |
608.08 |
243.99 |
267.98 |
291.49 |
315.23 |
339.90 |
|
| NPAT |
395.70 |
161.06 |
176.89 |
192.41 |
208.08 |
224.37 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
10.91 |
10.91 |
10.91 |
10.91 |
10.91 |
10.91 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
3.44 |
1.24 |
1.21 |
1.18 |
1.14 |
1.10 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
2.23 |
1.68 |
1.24 |
0.89 |
0.61 |
0.37 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.32 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
0.71 |
0.42 |
0.41 |
0.40 |
0.39 |
0.38 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
13.12 |
8.90 |
9.02 |
9.15 |
9.30 |
9.47 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
183.00 |
74.50 |
81.85 |
89.05 |
96.35 |
103.90 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
243.99 |
267.98 |
291.49 |
315.23 |
339.90 |
|
| Interest |
563.38 |
479.69 |
398.85 |
320.20 |
243.10 |
|
| Depreciation |
254.70 |
224.74 |
198.30 |
174.97 |
154.39 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
1,062.07 |
972.41 |
888.63 |
810.40 |
737.38 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
701.07 |
641.89 |
586.59 |
534.95 |
486.75 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
2,796.96 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
701.07 |
641.89 |
586.59 |
534.95 |
3,283.70 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
3,262.96 |
|
| Debt |
828.94 |
|
| Value of Equity |
2,434.02 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
103.20 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
2,031 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
2,799 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
2.65 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
395 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
138 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
257 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
2,799 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
9% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
27% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
58% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
42% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
17% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
486.75 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
-7.3% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
2,796.96 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
Unpledged
Prom Hold % |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
JSW Steel |
289.00 |
69,858 |
129.52 |
37.18 |
17.51 |
1.23 |
9.87 |
2.23 |
7.42 |
1.41 |
1.38 |
31.40 |
34.20 |
86,432 |
24.00 |
34 |
5.03 |
25.01 |
-11.79 |
148.75 |
334.52 |
| 2 |
Tata Steel |
473.15 |
53,306 |
568.22 |
26.08 |
12.78 |
0.68 |
7.93 |
0.83 |
8.49 |
1.58 |
2.15 |
23.86 |
27.04 |
176,702 |
31.96 |
21 |
15.10 |
34.13 |
59.72 |
194.42 |
1,397.74 |
| 3 |
S A I L |
49.90 |
20,611 |
89.22 |
7.90 |
2.66 |
0.96 |
16.37 |
0.56 |
10.74 |
1.27 |
- |
7.90 |
6.25 |
67,193 |
75.00 |
44 |
5.10 |
22.77 |
2.45 |
338.49 |
97.34 |
| 4 |
Jindal Stain. |
32.25 |
1,545 |
50.21 |
-6.98 |
14.22 |
0.47 |
12.17 |
0.64 |
4.25 |
2.01 |
- |
-6.98 |
-6.00 |
12,142 |
9.41 |
161 |
-2.08 |
18.16 |
-140.11 |
-12.60 |
86.09 |
| 5 |
Jindal Stain .Hi |
86.10 |
2,031 |
59.17 |
23.01 |
23.73 |
0.49 |
11.10 |
1.46 |
5.59 |
2.23 |
- |
23.01 |
43.24 |
8,990 |
7.09 |
47 |
4.51 |
-5.05 |
-22.41 |
-29.01 |
144.57 |
| 6 |
Mah. Seamless |
487.25 |
3,265 |
464.44 |
15.10 |
10.28 |
0.87 |
10.12 |
1.05 |
10.33 |
0.01 |
1.23 |
12.04 |
12.70 |
2,930 |
61.78 |
55 |
15.74 |
45.27 |
-11.82 |
160.42 |
702.16 |
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