GNA AXLES LTD - Quantamental Equity Research Report

	Quantamental Equity Research on GNA AXLES LTD | Release: 15 Jan 2019 23:04:07 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GNA and BSE CODE:540124
	Last Close:	INR 368.75
	Fair Value:	INR 541.2
	Est. Price by Mar 19:	INR 328.15
	Market Capitalization (INR Crs):	791.54
	Industry:	Auto Parts & Equipment
	Rating:	STRONG BUY
	Upside:	47%
	Company Profile
	GNA Axles is manufactures auto components for the four-wheeler industry, primary product being Rear Axles, Shaft s, Spindles & other Automobiles Components for sale in domestic and foreign market.
	Growth Per Share
	Particulars	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year
	Revenue %	31%	60%	115%
	EBIT %	37%	113%	167%
	Earnings %	72%	136%	958%
	Book Value %	15%	203%	335%
	Stock Total Return %	134%
	Share holding pattern
	Particulars	%age
	(A) Promoter & Promoter Group	65.86
	(B) FII/FPI	0.69
	(C) DII/Insurance Companies	13.51
	(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap.	13.20
	(E) Others	6.74
	Grand Total	100.00
	Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
	Particulars	#REF!	Mar-11	Mar-12	Mar-13	Mar-14	Mar-15	Mar-16	Mar-17	Mar-18	Mar-19 E	Mar-20 E	Mar-21 E	Mar-22 E	Mar-23 E
	Price								223	522	328	403	478	545	614
	Return on Equity	#REF!	13%	23%	6%	14%	19%	19%	10%	15%	15%	16%	16%	16%	15%
	Price to Earning								16.2	22.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7
	EVTI								1.2	1.9	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.0	1.0
	EVTIFM								16.2	22.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7
	Price to Book Value								1.6	3.3	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.8	1.8
	Debt to Equity	#REF!	1.4	1.1	1.4	1.5	1.4	1.0	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
	Dividend Yield								0%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
	Cash Flow to Firm	#DIV/0!	-134%	26%	8%	4%	-3%	40%	-12%	1%	2%	4%	7%	11%	13%
	Detailed Estimates
	Title	Mar-18	Mar-19 E	Mar-20 E	Mar-21 E	Mar-22 E	Mar-23 E
	Sales	670.14	828.80	986.32	1,127.74	1,236.78	1,298.62
	EBITDA	105.92	128.70	153.16	175.12	192.06	201.66
	EBIT	81.12	98.03	120.16	141.16	158.69	173.66
	PBT	74.03	90.94	111.72	132.43	151.13	170.03
	NPAT	50.88	60.02	73.73	87.40	99.74	112.22
	Price to Earning	22.01	11.74	11.74	11.74	11.74	11.74
	Price to Book Value	3.28	1.77	1.85	1.87	1.82	1.76
	Debt to Equity	0.42	0.43	0.38	0.28	0.11	-
	Return on Equity	0.15	0.15	0.16	0.16	0.16	0.15
	Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)	1.88	1.05	1.05	1.04	1.00	0.98
	Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)	23.87	14.27	13.87	13.35	12.54	11.83
	Price or Est. Share Prices	521.73	328.15	403.15	477.90	545.40	613.65
	DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
	Title	Mar-19 E	Mar-20 E	Mar-21 E	Mar-22 E	Mar-23 E
	PBT	90.94	111.72	132.43	151.13	170.03
	Interest	7.09	8.44	8.73	7.56	3.63
	Depreciation	30.67	33.00	33.96	33.37	28.00
	Cash Flow Before Tax	128.70	153.16	175.12	192.06	201.66
	Tax Rate	33.99	33.99	33.99	33.99	33.99
	Cash Flow After Tax	84.96	101.10	115.60	126.78	133.12
	Terminal Cash Flow	-				1,792.64
	Total Cash Flow	84.96	101.10	115.60	126.78	1,925.76
Present Value of Cash Flow					1,161.71
Debt					-
Value of Equity					1,161.71
Fair Value Per Share					541.20
Equity					792
Debt					142
Beta	Take from Reuters				1.67
Risk Free Rate	Prevailing Yield in India				7%
Market Risk Premium	Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments				7%
Interest Paid					7
Tax Benefit					2
Interest Net of Tax					5
Debt					142
Cost of Debt					3%
Cost of Equity					20%
Debt Weight					15%
Equity Weight					85%
WACC					17%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E					133.12
Growth					8.5%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow					1,792.64
Peer Comparision
#	Name	CMP Rs.	Mar Cap Rs.Cr.	B.V. Rs.	Annualized ROE %	ROCE %	Latest EVTI	Latest EVTIFM	CMP / BV	P/E	Debt / Eq	Div Yld %	Growth Rate R %	SGR %	Ann Total Income	Unpledged Prom Hold %	PQEIOI	QoQ Sales %	Qtr Sales Var %	QoQ Profits %	Qtr Profit Var %	Graham's Number Rs.
1	Motherson Sumi	160.70	50,748	33.70	18.46	19.86	0.95	37.18	4.77	29.52	1.05	0.93	12.99	10.66	60,710	59.06	170	2.23	12.55	-16.25	-15.60	61.45
2	Bosch	19,130.05	58,386	3,424.93	21.16	22.73	3.84	43.78	5.59	35.91	-	0.52	16.45	34.69	13,362	70.49	208	-0.34	13.84	-2.55	18.86	6,287.47
3	Exide Inds.	257.60	21,896	68.05	25.70	20.08	1.75	31.78	3.79	29.41	-	0.93	17.86	27.15	11,361	45.99	147	-1.88	15.35	27.86	17.03	121.74
4	Amara Raja Batt.	765.40	13,074	183.09	20.39	24.92	1.84	30.06	4.18	27.38	0.02	0.54	17.32	15.27	7,069	52.06	123	-1.44	22.81	6.37	-5.49	339.38
5	Varroc Engineer	735.40	9,914	217.67	17.65	15.52	0.86	28.77	3.38	21.50	0.42	0.06	17.41	17.37	12,107	85.00	132	2.53	24.05	0.43	8.95	-
6	GNA Axles	368.75	792	170.86	26.64	18.07	0.92	11.64	2.16	12.25	0.42	0.54	24.39	22.76	985	59.69	44	8.36	47.46	10.53	41.56	340.23