|
Quantamental
Equity Research on FINOLEX INDUSTRIES LTD | Release: 06 Jan 2019 18:18:04
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:FINPIPE and BSE CODE:500940 |
| Last Close: |
INR 533.5 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 492.4 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 763.95 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
6620.74 |
| Industry: |
Plastic Products |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
43% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Finolex Industries is engaged in the business of manufacturing
PVC pipes & fittings, manufacturing of PVC resin and power generation. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
5% |
88% |
75% |
|
| EBIT % |
-16% |
197% |
86% |
|
| Earnings % |
-15% |
525% |
119% |
|
| Book Value
% |
21% |
251% |
283% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
15% |
129% |
555% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
52.27 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
3.50 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
9.38 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
18.52 |
|
| (E) Others |
16.33 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
70 |
99 |
52 |
100 |
210 |
287 |
365 |
570 |
657 |
764 |
869 |
954 |
1035 |
1098 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
23% |
12% |
11% |
19% |
22% |
6% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
15% |
15% |
15% |
14% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
6.6 |
16.1 |
8.5 |
9.1 |
15.3 |
74.5 |
17.8 |
20.1 |
27.3 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
|
| EVTI |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
| EVTIFM |
6.6 |
16.1 |
8.5 |
9.1 |
15.3 |
74.5 |
17.8 |
20.1 |
27.3 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.5 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
4% |
3% |
6% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
14% |
8% |
12% |
15% |
8% |
6% |
18% |
5% |
4% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
2,737.79 |
3,111.36 |
3,468.66 |
3,792.03 |
4,063.58 |
4,266.76 |
|
| EBITDA |
509.26 |
719.44 |
802.06 |
876.83 |
939.63 |
986.61 |
|
| EBIT |
448.66 |
650.57 |
728.66 |
800.19 |
868.40 |
920.42 |
|
| PBT |
438.84 |
640.75 |
728.66 |
800.19 |
868.40 |
920.42 |
|
| NPAT |
298.54 |
422.95 |
480.97 |
528.19 |
573.21 |
607.55 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
27.30 |
22.41 |
22.41 |
22.41 |
22.41 |
22.41 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.95 |
3.15 |
3.28 |
3.30 |
3.28 |
3.19 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.04 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.11 |
0.14 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.14 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
2.42 |
2.51 |
2.57 |
2.53 |
2.52 |
2.49 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
23.93 |
20.09 |
20.47 |
20.13 |
19.77 |
19.33 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
656.88 |
763.95 |
868.80 |
954.10 |
1,035.45 |
1,097.50 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
640.75 |
728.66 |
800.19 |
868.40 |
920.42 |
|
| Interest |
9.82 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
68.87 |
73.40 |
76.64 |
71.23 |
66.19 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
719.44 |
802.06 |
876.83 |
939.63 |
986.61 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
474.90 |
529.44 |
578.80 |
620.25 |
651.26 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
8,638.60 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
474.90 |
529.44 |
578.80 |
620.25 |
9,289.86 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
6,110.07 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
6,110.07 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
492.40 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
6,621 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
101 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
7 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
101 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
7% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
15% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
1% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
99% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
15% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
651.26 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
6.3% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
8,638.60 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
Unpledged
Prom Hold % |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Supreme Inds. |
1,085.55 |
13,789 |
157.60 |
27.71 |
30.41 |
2.61 |
31.65 |
6.89 |
28.19 |
0.13 |
1.11 |
17.93 |
20.32 |
5,287 |
49.70 |
135 |
-2.20 |
24.75 |
-21.33 |
51.48 |
383.24 |
| 2 |
Finolex Inds. |
533.50 |
6,621 |
216.56 |
13.76 |
16.88 |
2.32 |
19.04 |
2.46 |
17.06 |
0.04 |
1.87 |
8.04 |
25.90 |
2,220 |
52.46 |
103 |
-34.45 |
14.17 |
-26.02 |
170.23 |
381.25 |
| 3 |
Jain Irrigation |
66.35 |
3,385 |
85.28 |
2.38 |
9.32 |
0.95 |
21.09 |
0.78 |
12.67 |
1.02 |
1.52 |
1.82 |
1.75 |
7,686 |
20.87 |
-635 |
-8.05 |
20.35 |
-74.12 |
98.87 |
99.79 |
| 4 |
Astral Poly |
1,178.90 |
14,124 |
97.67 |
22.11 |
23.51 |
5.63 |
70.50 |
12.07 |
72.87 |
0.19 |
0.05 |
21.20 |
18.33 |
2,535 |
58.49 |
347 |
31.91 |
21.66 |
21.20 |
15.86 |
188.45 |
| 5 |
Time Technoplast |
103.35 |
2,337 |
68.16 |
10.48 |
15.72 |
0.92 |
15.43 |
1.52 |
13.21 |
0.53 |
0.77 |
9.43 |
8.26 |
3,311 |
44.35 |
74 |
5.89 |
14.17 |
-27.02 |
-24.71 |
109.58 |
| 6 |
Nilkamal Ltd |
1,457.65 |
2,175 |
561.15 |
15.34 |
23.23 |
0.90 |
23.76 |
2.60 |
17.75 |
0.12 |
0.89 |
12.79 |
11.08 |
2,473 |
63.97 |
107 |
7.32 |
32.06 |
-18.95 |
-10.56 |
1,018.07 |
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