|
Quantamental
Equity Research on BANDHAN BANK LTD | Release: 12 Jan 2019 23:43:01 UTC+05:30
| Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:BANDHANBNK and BSE CODE:541153 |
| Last Close: |
INR 454.4 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 35.3 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 384.05 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
54201.06 |
| Industry: |
Banks |
| Rating: |
SELL |
| Downside: |
-15% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Bandhan Bank is a banking company, governed by the Banking
Regulation Act, 1949. Pursuant to the Banking license received from Reserve
Bank of India on June 17, 2015, the Bank has commenced its banking operations
from August 23, 2015. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
23% |
|
|
|
| EBIT % |
19% |
|
|
|
| Earnings % |
21% |
|
|
|
| Book Value
% |
111% |
|
|
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
|
|
|
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
82.28 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
5.40 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
10.20 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
1.24 |
|
| (E) Others |
0.88 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
505 |
384 |
500 |
602 |
668 |
681 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
25% |
14% |
18% |
19% |
19% |
18% |
15% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
44.8 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
|
| EVTI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15.6 |
11.0 |
11.0 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
10.4 |
|
| EVTIFM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
44.8 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
22.4 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6.4 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.5 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-105% |
-9% |
-10% |
-7% |
-4% |
-1% |
4% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
4,802.30 |
6,693.96 |
8,755.22 |
10,698.47 |
12,153.21 |
12,760.87 |
|
| EBITDA |
3,911.88 |
4,988.95 |
6,525.20 |
7,973.49 |
9,057.70 |
9,510.58 |
|
| EBIT |
3,825.96 |
4,869.19 |
6,418.49 |
7,887.59 |
8,995.94 |
9,471.48 |
|
| PBT |
2,055.90 |
3,099.13 |
4,035.56 |
4,858.46 |
5,391.65 |
5,493.01 |
|
| NPAT |
1,345.56 |
2,045.74 |
2,663.87 |
3,207.07 |
3,559.03 |
3,625.94 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
44.78 |
22.39 |
22.39 |
22.39 |
22.39 |
22.39 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
6.42 |
4.06 |
4.33 |
4.29 |
3.97 |
3.46 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
3.64 |
4.07 |
4.25 |
4.15 |
3.82 |
3.32 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.14 |
0.18 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.18 |
0.15 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
15.62 |
10.99 |
11.04 |
10.94 |
10.72 |
10.38 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
47.86 |
36.03 |
35.95 |
35.46 |
34.62 |
33.43 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
505.18 |
384.05 |
500.10 |
602.10 |
668.20 |
680.80 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
3,099.13 |
4,035.56 |
4,858.46 |
5,391.65 |
5,493.01 |
|
| Interest |
1,770.06 |
2,382.94 |
3,029.13 |
3,604.29 |
3,978.47 |
|
| Depreciation |
119.76 |
106.71 |
85.90 |
61.76 |
39.10 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
4,988.95 |
6,525.20 |
7,973.49 |
9,057.70 |
9,510.58 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
3,293.21 |
4,307.29 |
5,263.30 |
5,978.99 |
6,277.94 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
1,18,713.38 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
3,293.21 |
4,307.29 |
5,263.30 |
5,978.99 |
1,24,991.31 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
81,974.33 |
|
| Debt |
77,768.85 |
|
| Value of Equity |
4,205.48 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
35.30 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
54,201 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
34,154 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
1,770 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
612 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
1,158 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
34,154 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
3% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
19% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
39% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
61% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
13% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
6,277.94 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
6.4% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
1,18,713.38 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
Unpledged
Prom Hold % |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
HDFC Bank |
2,111.90 |
5,74,332 |
390.86 |
23.66 |
7.32 |
9.93 |
26.37 |
5.40 |
30.15 |
8.58 |
0.59 |
19.09 |
-586.55 |
1,12,861 |
21.43 |
580 |
7.32 |
23.03 |
8.79 |
20.59 |
800.14 |
| 2 |
Kotak Mah. Bank |
1,223.20 |
2,33,331 |
264.67 |
17.36 |
7.93 |
8.49 |
81.09 |
4.62 |
35.36 |
4.95 |
0.06 |
16.99 |
-310.28 |
43,316 |
30.02 |
-132 |
5.91 |
20.39 |
10.98 |
66.21 |
458.82 |
| 3 |
Yes Bank |
184.25 |
42,604 |
111.40 |
18.44 |
7.42 |
6.46 |
17.02 |
1.65 |
9.51 |
10.70 |
1.46 |
15.73 |
-988.14 |
34,819 |
19.19 |
-84 |
9.93 |
50.64 |
-23.46 |
-3.79 |
221.02 |
| 4 |
IndusInd Bank |
1,515.15 |
91,271 |
389.53 |
20.96 |
7.97 |
7.53 |
24.35 |
3.89 |
23.44 |
8.09 |
0.49 |
18.35 |
-293.15 |
28,929 |
10.98 |
-189 |
5.98 |
34.45 |
7.04 |
5.21 |
753.73 |
| 5 |
ICICI Bank |
378.55 |
2,43,822 |
158.59 |
4.43 |
4.98 |
9.59 |
35.84 |
2.39 |
70.48 |
7.28 |
0.40 |
3.80 |
22.67 |
73,048 |
- |
-108 |
2.60 |
11.26 |
-860.25 |
-55.84 |
138.55 |
| 6 |
Bandhan Bank |
454.40 |
54,201 |
78.65 |
17.31 |
10.59 |
9.88 |
37.90 |
5.78 |
32.10 |
3.64 |
0.22 |
15.77 |
2,391.93 |
7,535 |
82.28 |
558 |
2.73 |
40.00 |
-32.07 |
10.40 |
159.74 |
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