|
Quantamental
Equity Research on AVENUE SUPERMARTS LTD | Release: 13 Jan 2019 00:30:21
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:DMART and BSE CODE:540376 |
| Last Close: |
INR 1571.65 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 446.55 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 1482.8 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
98084.24 |
| Industry: |
Department Stores |
| Rating: |
NOT RATED |
| Downside: |
-6% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Avenue Supermarts Limited is an India-based company, which owns
and operates DMart stores. DMart is a supermarket chain that offers customers
a range of home and personal products under one roof. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
29% |
139% |
277% |
|
| EBIT % |
44% |
220% |
591% |
|
| Earnings % |
63% |
272% |
748% |
|
| Book Value
% |
21% |
289% |
491% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
100% |
|
|
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
81.20 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
5.53 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
3.36 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
3.08 |
|
| (E) Others |
6.83 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
728 |
1456 |
1483 |
1841 |
2202 |
2533 |
2695 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
5% |
7% |
9% |
12% |
17% |
18% |
21% |
13% |
17% |
19% |
19% |
19% |
18% |
16% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
94.2 |
115.8 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
|
| EVTI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.7 |
5.5 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
|
| EVTIFM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
94.2 |
115.8 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
84.9 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11.8 |
19.6 |
16.1 |
16.2 |
15.8 |
15.0 |
13.4 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-57% |
-64% |
-26% |
-12% |
7% |
-11% |
-1% |
-4% |
2% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
16,480.78 |
21,902.22 |
27,579.64 |
32,805.37 |
36,733.45 |
38,570.13 |
|
| EBITDA |
1,409.96 |
1,916.66 |
2,413.49 |
2,870.80 |
3,214.54 |
3,375.27 |
|
| EBIT |
1,255.31 |
1,711.14 |
2,152.77 |
2,558.24 |
2,861.64 |
3,001.42 |
|
| PBT |
1,195.89 |
1,651.72 |
2,050.58 |
2,453.23 |
2,821.06 |
3,001.42 |
|
| NPAT |
784.66 |
1,090.29 |
1,353.57 |
1,619.36 |
1,862.16 |
1,981.21 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
115.81 |
84.88 |
84.88 |
84.88 |
84.88 |
84.88 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
19.57 |
16.14 |
16.21 |
15.79 |
14.96 |
13.40 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.09 |
0.13 |
0.11 |
0.03 |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.17 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.18 |
0.16 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
5.51 |
4.23 |
4.17 |
4.17 |
4.26 |
4.26 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
121.35 |
90.36 |
89.07 |
89.29 |
91.11 |
91.25 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
1,456.11 |
1,482.80 |
1,840.90 |
2,202.40 |
2,532.65 |
2,694.60 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
1,651.72 |
2,050.58 |
2,453.23 |
2,821.06 |
3,001.42 |
|
| Interest |
59.42 |
102.19 |
105.00 |
40.58 |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
205.52 |
260.72 |
312.56 |
352.90 |
373.85 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
1,916.66 |
2,413.49 |
2,870.80 |
3,214.54 |
3,375.27 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
1,265.19 |
1,593.15 |
1,895.01 |
2,121.92 |
2,228.02 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
38,225.31 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
1,265.19 |
1,593.15 |
1,895.01 |
2,121.92 |
40,453.32 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
27,865.46 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
27,865.46 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
446.55 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
98,084 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
439 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
0.66 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
59 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
39 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
439 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
9% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
12% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
12% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
2,228.02 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
6.1% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
38,225.31 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
Unpledged
Prom Hold % |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Avenue Super. |
1,571.65 |
98,084 |
82.19 |
27.94 |
23.77 |
4.48 |
94.54 |
19.12 |
108.91 |
0.09 |
- |
27.94 |
25.26 |
21,838 |
81.20 |
395 |
11.87 |
33.15 |
13.90 |
2.12 |
163.41 |
| 2 |
Future Retail |
440.20 |
22,124 |
68.31 |
31.51 |
19.78 |
1.18 |
25.82 |
6.44 |
33.95 |
0.42 |
- |
31.51 |
29.49 |
19,738 |
25.10 |
131 |
8.59 |
9.37 |
14.35 |
14.32 |
39.01 |
| 3 |
Trent |
355.55 |
11,816 |
49.41 |
10.21 |
11.55 |
4.43 |
100.18 |
7.20 |
97.79 |
0.24 |
0.32 |
6.87 |
13.15 |
2,513 |
32.61 |
575 |
4.29 |
17.97 |
-14.21 |
13.44 |
63.53 |
| 4 |
V-Mart Retail |
2,366.35 |
4,290 |
202.62 |
-5.08 |
34.55 |
4.02 |
-211.79 |
11.68 |
58.41 |
- |
0.08 |
-4.84 |
-5.81 |
1,053 |
53.95 |
-848 |
-27.41 |
8.38 |
-116.16 |
-246.18 |
430.86 |
| 5 |
Archies |
28.70 |
97 |
34.85 |
2.69 |
0.53 |
0.65 |
35.48 |
0.82 |
55.72 |
0.14 |
- |
2.69 |
2.25 |
171 |
61.34 |
323 |
24.06 |
4.34 |
-234.04 |
173.91 |
20.19 |
| 6 |
Rajnish Wellness |
139.30 |
65 |
2.16 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
64.46 |
101.72 |
2.71 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
69.53 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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