|
Quantamental
Equity Research on TIMKEN INDIA LTD | Release: 06 Dec 2018 11:23:29 UTC+05:30
| Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:TIMKEN and BSE CODE:522113 |
| Last Close: |
INR 516.6 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 319.85 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 595.75 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
3885.80 |
| Industry: |
Industrial Machinery |
| Rating: |
BUY |
| Upside: |
15% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Timken India is primarily into manufacture and distribution of
tapered roller bearings, components and accessories for the automotive sector
and the railway industry. It also provides maintenance contract services and
refurbishment services. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
17% |
68% |
112% |
|
| EBIT % |
1% |
15% |
117% |
|
| Earnings % |
-5% |
14% |
108% |
|
| Book Value
% |
14% |
60% |
106% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
2% |
15% |
366% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
67.80 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
2.41 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
7.61 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
10.52 |
|
| (E) Others |
11.66 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
131 |
180 |
242 |
152 |
198 |
620 |
491 |
698 |
710 |
596 |
757 |
921 |
1048 |
1123 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
10% |
13% |
26% |
13% |
12% |
18% |
17% |
16% |
13% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
17% |
16% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
25.7 |
22.5 |
19.1 |
22.0 |
30.0 |
52.3 |
36.3 |
48.8 |
52.5 |
31.6 |
31.6 |
31.6 |
31.6 |
31.6 |
|
| EVTI |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
4.5 |
3.2 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
|
| EVTIFM |
25.7 |
22.5 |
19.1 |
22.0 |
30.0 |
52.3 |
36.3 |
48.8 |
52.5 |
31.6 |
31.6 |
31.6 |
31.6 |
31.6 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.5 |
3.0 |
4.9 |
2.8 |
3.5 |
9.6 |
6.3 |
7.7 |
6.9 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
5.0 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
8% |
1% |
3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
10% |
6% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
0% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,233.47 |
1,611.91 |
2,002.98 |
2,360.32 |
2,629.87 |
2,761.37 |
|
| EBITDA |
184.11 |
272.21 |
338.25 |
398.60 |
444.12 |
466.32 |
|
| EBIT |
140.97 |
215.83 |
275.00 |
331.70 |
377.65 |
404.55 |
|
| PBT |
139.75 |
214.61 |
272.58 |
331.70 |
377.65 |
404.55 |
|
| NPAT |
91.99 |
141.67 |
179.93 |
218.95 |
249.29 |
267.05 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
52.52 |
31.63 |
31.63 |
31.63 |
31.63 |
31.63 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
6.88 |
5.38 |
5.69 |
5.76 |
5.50 |
5.02 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.02 |
0.04 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.13 |
0.17 |
0.18 |
0.18 |
0.17 |
0.16 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
3.82 |
2.71 |
2.76 |
2.81 |
2.81 |
2.78 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
66.60 |
40.31 |
40.00 |
39.83 |
39.02 |
37.83 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
710.33 |
595.75 |
756.65 |
920.80 |
1,048.40 |
1,123.10 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
214.61 |
272.58 |
331.70 |
377.65 |
404.55 |
|
| Interest |
1.22 |
2.43 |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
56.38 |
63.25 |
66.90 |
66.47 |
61.77 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
272.21 |
338.25 |
398.60 |
444.12 |
466.32 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
179.69 |
223.28 |
263.11 |
293.16 |
307.82 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
3,652.45 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
179.69 |
223.28 |
263.11 |
293.16 |
3,960.27 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
2,405.86 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
2,405.86 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
319.85 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
3,886 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
16 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
16 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
17% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
17% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
307.82 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
8.7% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
3,652.45 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
NRB Bearings |
186.15 |
1,804 |
45.32 |
37.55 |
22.85 |
1.88 |
21.62 |
4.11 |
17.87 |
0.52 |
1.40 |
26.00 |
26.53 |
1,042 |
47.92 |
92 |
7.32 |
20.56 |
-16.23 |
37.75 |
| 2 |
Timken India |
516.60 |
3,886 |
167.19 |
25.15 |
20.95 |
2.29 |
29.92 |
3.09 |
39.23 |
0.02 |
0.17 |
23.29 |
20.36 |
1,668 |
67.80 |
124 |
7.95 |
33.43 |
9.26 |
-7.22 |
| 3 |
Menon Bearings |
78.10 |
438 |
16.06 |
48.58 |
36.48 |
2.35 |
15.03 |
4.86 |
17.42 |
0.33 |
1.60 |
32.44 |
30.11 |
189 |
62.34 |
66 |
1.57 |
23.93 |
1.81 |
22.78 |
| 4 |
SNL Bearings |
330.00 |
119 |
83.66 |
44.56 |
46.54 |
2.16 |
11.54 |
3.94 |
13.69 |
- |
1.52 |
34.81 |
50.55 |
50 |
74.39 |
51 |
51.33 |
31.13 |
53.09 |
21.57 |
| 5 |
Galaxy Bearings |
111.00 |
35 |
88.39 |
42.02 |
21.46 |
0.49 |
5.46 |
1.26 |
6.91 |
0.24 |
- |
42.02 |
36.06 |
84 |
42.17 |
20 |
40.38 |
54.40 |
146.91 |
45.99 |
| 6 |
Benara Bearing |
54.45 |
96 |
32.22 |
- |
12.19 |
0.55 |
6.33 |
1.69 |
27.16 |
0.69 |
- |
- |
12.04 |
185 |
69.91 |
40 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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