REPCO HOME FINANCE LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on REPCO HOME FINANCE LTD | Release: 03 Dec 2018 16:08:25 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:REPCOHOME and BSE CODE:535322
Last Close:  INR 369.75
Fair Value:  INR 393.4
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 387.65
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  2313.21
Industry:  Housing Finance 
Rating:  NEUTRAL
Upside:  6%
Company Profile
Repco Home Finance is a Housing Finance Company set up in April, 2000 and registered with the National Housing Bank (NHB). The Company is a Housing Finance Company that provides loans for purchase / construction / repairs to houses in accordance with all applicable regulatory prescriptions including the guidelines / directions of National Housing Bank in relation to its credit / technical and ; legal appraisal processes.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 6% 64% 165%  
EBIT % 4% 56% 158%  
Earnings % 13% 67% 158%  
Book Value %  17% 64% 109%  
Stock Total Return %  -18% -5% 256%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 37.13  
(B) FII/FPI 29.43  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 18.74  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 8.62  
(E) Others 6.08  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price       170 366 638 638 739 607 388 426 468 514 564  
Return on Equity 23% 23% 20% 13% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%  
Price to Earning        13.2 20.7 32.3 26.6 25.4 18.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4  
EVTI       10.1 11.5 13.1 11.9 11.6 10.8 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4  
EVTIFM       13.2 20.7 32.3 26.6 25.4 18.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4  
Price to Book Value       1.7 3.1 4.9 4.2 4.1 2.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5  
Debt to Equity  5.6 6.4 8.2 4.8 5.3 6.3 6.8 6.6 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.1  
Dividend Yield       1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%  
Cash Flow to Firm -26% -19% -27% -12% -6% -6% -6% -1% 3% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       1,107.67       1,146.67       1,191.28       1,242.03       1,299.54       1,364.51  
EBITDA          965.73       1,069.74       1,111.36       1,158.71       1,212.36       1,272.98  
EBIT          962.64       1,066.55       1,108.92       1,156.85       1,210.94       1,271.89  
PBT          314.29          255.46          280.74          308.24          338.35          371.35  
NPAT          206.12          168.63          185.32          203.47          223.35          245.13  
Price to Earning             18.43            14.38            14.38            14.38            14.38            14.38  
Price to Book Value              2.86              1.63              1.61              1.58              1.56              1.54  
Debt to Equity               6.13              5.59              5.13              4.74              4.39              4.10  
Return on Equity              0.16              0.11              0.11              0.11              0.11              0.11  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)            10.76              9.35              9.37              9.39              9.41              9.43  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            18.88            15.23            15.25            15.28            15.30            15.33  
Price or Est. Share Prices          607.37          387.65          426.05          467.80          513.55          563.65  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          255.46          280.74          308.24          338.35          371.35  
Interest          811.09          828.18          848.61          872.59          900.54  
Depreciation              3.20              2.44              1.86              1.42              1.08  
Cash Flow Before Tax       1,069.74       1,111.36       1,158.71       1,212.36       1,272.98  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          706.14          733.61          764.86          800.28          840.29  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                    -       12,645.48  
Total Cash Flow          706.14          733.61          764.86          800.28     13,485.77  
Present Value of Cash Flow     11,820.01  
Debt       9,358.92  
Value of Equity       2,461.09  
Fair Value Per Share          393.40  
Equity            2,313
Debt            8,137
Beta Take from Reuters 0.96
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 8%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 9%
Interest Paid               648
Tax Benefit               223
Interest Net of Tax               425
Debt            8,137
Cost of Debt 5%
Cost of Equity 16%
Debt Weight 78%
Equity Weight 22%
WACC 8%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E          840.29
Growth 0.5%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow     12,645.48
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  H D F C        1,989.00        341,662          412.17            19.60              9.65            13.99            21.16              4.83            34.10              5.21              0.98            14.20        -160.32          45,028                 -                 139            13.05            24.91            12.65            24.71
   2  Indiabulls Hous.           715.60          30,534          362.53            38.59            11.43              7.12            10.58              1.97              7.11              8.21              5.73            21.05        -204.62          17,021            16.87                 40              2.32            26.13            -1.00            21.22
   3  LIC Housing Fin.           466.35          23,534          251.48            22.66              9.60              9.81            13.81              1.85            10.84            11.45              1.46            18.75        -118.98          16,810            40.31                 41              3.73            11.92              0.92            11.54
   4  Dewan Hsg. Fin.           212.75            6,676          331.44            25.42              9.78              6.30            10.42              0.64              4.47            10.53              2.58            21.68        -212.96          14,077            39.21                 15            11.46            33.78              0.86            52.46
   5  H U D C O             43.00            8,608            52.80            14.45              8.06              8.96            15.01              0.81              8.59              3.68              1.28            12.46        -509.98            4,932            89.81                 31          -23.80            27.67          -15.37              6.24
   6  Repco Home Fin           369.75            2,313          239.56            25.24            10.60              8.79            14.38              1.54              9.95              6.13              0.59            23.55        -133.08            1,184            37.13                 38              1.37              2.31              9.33            -4.93

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular Posts