|
Quantamental
Equity Research on RELIANCE HOME FINANCE LTD | Release: 03 Dec 2018 16:25:10
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:Not Listed and BSE CODE:540709 |
| Last Close: |
INR 42.8 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 46.85 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 43.8 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
2076.05 |
| Industry: |
Housing Finance |
| Rating: |
NEUTRAL |
| Upside: |
9% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Reliance Home Finance Limited is an India-based housing finance
company. The Company is engaged in the house finance business. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
50% |
183% |
434% |
|
| EBIT % |
48% |
210% |
342% |
|
| Earnings % |
5% |
161% |
557% |
|
| Book Value
% |
73% |
256% |
351% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
|
|
|
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
74.99 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
5.35 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
5.80 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
9.24 |
|
| (E) Others |
4.62 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
62 |
44 |
47 |
49 |
51 |
52 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
2% |
12% |
7% |
7% |
9% |
13% |
14% |
16% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16.6 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
|
| EVTI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.6 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
8.9 |
8.9 |
8.8 |
|
| EVTIFM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16.6 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.6 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
5.2 |
6.5 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
5.1 |
6.8 |
10.6 |
8.8 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-119% |
-29% |
34% |
14% |
12% |
-31% |
-32% |
-27% |
-19% |
4% |
5% |
6% |
7% |
8% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,670.45 |
1,822.50 |
1,969.70 |
2,108.59 |
2,235.64 |
2,347.43 |
|
| EBITDA |
1,335.27 |
1,596.54 |
1,725.49 |
1,847.15 |
1,958.45 |
2,056.38 |
|
| EBIT |
1,309.09 |
1,567.97 |
1,700.48 |
1,825.25 |
1,939.28 |
2,039.59 |
|
| PBT |
271.55 |
268.03 |
284.95 |
298.88 |
309.72 |
317.44 |
|
| NPAT |
180.58 |
176.93 |
188.10 |
197.29 |
204.44 |
209.54 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
16.61 |
12.00 |
12.00 |
12.00 |
12.00 |
12.00 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.58 |
1.04 |
1.03 |
1.01 |
0.98 |
0.94 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
6.91 |
7.00 |
7.03 |
7.00 |
6.91 |
6.78 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.10 |
0.09 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
9.64 |
9.01 |
8.97 |
8.93 |
8.88 |
8.83 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
18.21 |
15.59 |
15.48 |
15.37 |
15.26 |
15.14 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
61.83 |
43.80 |
46.60 |
48.90 |
50.70 |
52.00 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
268.03 |
284.95 |
298.88 |
309.72 |
317.44 |
|
| Interest |
1,299.94 |
1,415.53 |
1,526.37 |
1,629.56 |
1,722.15 |
|
| Depreciation |
28.56 |
25.01 |
21.90 |
19.17 |
16.79 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
1,596.54 |
1,725.49 |
1,847.15 |
1,958.45 |
2,056.38 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
1,053.87 |
1,138.99 |
1,219.31 |
1,292.78 |
1,357.41 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
22,568.51 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
1,053.87 |
1,138.99 |
1,219.31 |
1,292.78 |
23,925.92 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
20,451.66 |
|
| Debt |
18,179.17 |
|
| Value of Equity |
2,272.49 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
46.85 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
2,076 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
13,120 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
1,038 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
348 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
690 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
13,120 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
23% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
86% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
14% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
1,357.41 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
1.1% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
22,568.51 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
H D F C |
1,989.00 |
341,662 |
412.17 |
19.60 |
9.65 |
13.99 |
21.16 |
4.83 |
34.10 |
5.21 |
0.98 |
14.20 |
-160.32 |
45,028 |
- |
139 |
13.05 |
24.91 |
12.65 |
24.71 |
| 2 |
Indiabulls Hous. |
715.60 |
30,534 |
362.53 |
38.59 |
11.43 |
7.12 |
10.58 |
1.97 |
7.11 |
8.21 |
5.73 |
21.05 |
-204.62 |
17,021 |
16.87 |
40 |
2.32 |
26.13 |
-1.00 |
21.22 |
| 3 |
LIC Housing Fin. |
466.35 |
23,534 |
251.48 |
22.66 |
9.60 |
9.81 |
13.81 |
1.85 |
10.84 |
11.45 |
1.46 |
18.75 |
-118.98 |
16,810 |
40.31 |
41 |
3.73 |
11.92 |
0.92 |
11.54 |
| 4 |
Dewan Hsg. Fin. |
212.75 |
6,676 |
331.44 |
25.42 |
9.78 |
6.30 |
10.42 |
0.64 |
4.47 |
10.53 |
2.58 |
21.68 |
-212.96 |
14,077 |
39.21 |
15 |
11.46 |
33.78 |
0.86 |
52.46 |
| 5 |
H U D C O |
43.00 |
8,608 |
52.80 |
14.45 |
8.06 |
8.96 |
15.01 |
0.81 |
8.59 |
3.68 |
1.28 |
12.46 |
-509.98 |
4,932 |
89.81 |
31 |
-23.80 |
27.67 |
-15.37 |
6.24 |
| 6 |
Reliance Home |
42.80 |
2,076 |
38.76 |
20.19 |
10.21 |
8.08 |
12.95 |
1.10 |
9.19 |
6.80 |
2.34 |
14.76 |
139.11 |
1,856 |
58.78 |
30 |
13.61 |
12.50 |
56.25 |
31.58 |
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