RASHTRIYA CHEMICALS & FERTILIZERS LTD - Quantamental Equity Research Report

#N/A
Last Close:  INR 60.4
Fair Value:  INR 17.75
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 52.25
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  3332.21
Industry:  #N/A
Rating:  SELL
Downside:  -13%
Company Profile
Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of fertilizers and industrial chemicals.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 3% 4% 12%  
EBIT % -44% -69% -62%  
Earnings % -56% -76% -72%  
Book Value %  0% 8% 24%  
Stock Total Return %  -4% 24% 106%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 75.00  
(B) FII/FPI 4.16  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 0.81  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 13.00  
(E) Others 7.03  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 81 85 59 39 35 64 43 83 80 52 59 64 69 73  
Return on Equity 13% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12% 6% 6% 3% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6%  
Price to Earning  19.1 19.1 13.0 7.6 7.8 11.0 13.7 25.7 55.8 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4  
EVTI 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5  
EVTIFM 19.1 19.1 13.0 7.6 7.8 11.0 13.7 25.7 55.8 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4  
Price to Book Value 2.4 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1  
Debt to Equity  0.7 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1  
Dividend Yield 1% 1% 2% 4% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%  
Cash Flow to Firm 6% 22% -11% -3% 10% 5% -12% 24% 12% -12% -8% -3% 2% 9%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       7,291.62       9,278.33     11,290.32     13,110.68     14,495.38     15,220.15  
EBITDA          329.51          475.28          578.34          671.59          742.52          779.64  
EBIT          192.47          300.90          371.19          437.03          489.98          521.79  
PBT          128.22          236.65          264.74          291.66          314.28          329.57  
NPAT            78.80          156.21          174.76          192.52          207.46          217.55  
Price to Earning             55.82            18.44            18.44            18.44            18.44            18.44  
Price to Book Value              1.50              0.95              1.03              1.09              1.13              1.14  
Debt to Equity               0.45              0.73              0.96              1.12              1.18              1.08  
Return on Equity              0.03              0.05              0.06              0.06              0.06              0.06  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              0.76              0.53              0.53              0.53              0.52              0.49  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)         -111.34           -76.24           -75.93           -74.48           -72.19           -67.85  
Price or Est. Share Prices            79.73            52.25            58.50            64.45            69.45            72.85  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          236.65          264.74          291.66          314.28          329.57  
Interest            64.25          106.45          145.38          175.70          192.22  
Depreciation          174.38          207.15          234.55          252.54          257.86  
Cash Flow Before Tax          475.28          578.34          671.59          742.52          779.64  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          313.73          381.76          443.31          490.13          514.64  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                      -         7,360.14  
Total Cash Flow          313.73          381.76          443.31          490.13       7,874.79  
Present Value of Cash Flow       4,781.05  
Debt       3,803.30  
Value of Equity          977.75  
Fair Value Per Share            17.75  
Equity            3,332
Debt            1,331
Beta Take from Reuters 1.59
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 8%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 9%
Interest Paid                 64
Tax Benefit                 25
Interest Net of Tax                 39
Debt            1,331
Cost of Debt 3%
Cost of Equity 22%
Debt Weight 29%
Equity Weight 71%
WACC 16%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E          514.64
Growth 8.2%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow       7,360.14
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  G N F C           341.70            5,311          303.04            34.03            23.81              0.72              4.63              1.13              5.11              0.07              2.19            29.00            28.33            6,729            41.18                 21              2.27              8.92            59.73            78.39
   2  Coromandel Inter           417.10          12,197          110.37            64.87            21.70              0.71              8.42              3.78            16.70              0.87              1.56            46.29            28.40          19,993            61.80                 32            98.08            36.27          305.24              8.56
   3  G S F C           108.15            4,310          180.18            15.84              6.90              0.24              3.29              0.60              6.62              0.15              2.03            12.92            12.79          10,865            37.84                 24            50.93            73.47          217.01          183.04
   4  Chambal Fert.           156.15            6,499            68.81            25.14            11.32              1.15            28.95              2.27            13.02              1.93              1.22            21.00            16.52          10,257            58.34                 97            13.50            17.95             -6.68              2.65
   5  Natl.Fertilizer             34.60            1,697            42.84            18.46              8.86              0.35              9.11              0.81              7.26              1.54                  -              18.46              8.26          12,956            74.71                 24            49.39            51.30            75.72              8.56
   6  R C F             60.40            3,332            53.24              3.03              4.26              0.49            55.77              1.13            29.85              0.45              0.99              1.76              1.22            9,350            75.00            1,904            19.45            29.17           -22.58            64.97

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