|
Quantamental
Equity Research on PRISM JOHNSON LTD | Release: 06 Dec 2018 11:47:54
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:PRSMJOHNSN and BSE CODE:500338 |
| Last Close: |
INR 82.2 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 59.05 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 415.85 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
4137.62 |
| Industry: |
Cement & Cement Products |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
406% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Prism Johnson operates in three business segments : Cement;
Tile and Bath (HRJ) and Ready Mixed Concrete (RMC). |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
8% |
-4% |
4% |
|
| EBIT % |
38% |
19% |
163% |
|
| Earnings % |
302% |
379% |
-218% |
|
| Book Value
% |
7% |
1% |
-6% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
10% |
5% |
178% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
74.87 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
6.68 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
3.68 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
5.83 |
|
| (E) Others |
8.94 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
61 |
57 |
50 |
42 |
41 |
112 |
85 |
106 |
117 |
416 |
529 |
656 |
872 |
1076 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
21% |
8% |
-3% |
-5% |
-8% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
7% |
13% |
14% |
15% |
17% |
17% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
12.2 |
29.9 |
-84.4 |
-35.7 |
-25.3 |
384.4 |
527.4 |
306.1 |
84.0 |
135.2 |
135.2 |
135.2 |
135.2 |
135.2 |
|
| EVTI |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
5.4 |
6.2 |
|
| EVTIFM |
12.2 |
29.9 |
-84.4 |
-35.7 |
-25.3 |
384.4 |
527.4 |
306.1 |
84.0 |
135.2 |
135.2 |
135.2 |
135.2 |
135.2 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
5.6 |
4.5 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
17.7 |
19.3 |
20.4 |
22.5 |
23.1 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
4% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-22% |
-3% |
6% |
-3% |
4% |
16% |
16% |
9% |
6% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
5,408.49 |
6,153.70 |
6,866.54 |
7,511.25 |
8,051.66 |
8,454.24 |
|
| EBITDA |
449.93 |
600.48 |
670.04 |
732.95 |
785.68 |
824.96 |
|
| EBIT |
296.86 |
426.32 |
486.28 |
543.11 |
611.55 |
665.23 |
|
| PBT |
105.06 |
234.52 |
298.52 |
369.95 |
491.59 |
606.65 |
|
| NPAT |
70.41 |
154.80 |
197.05 |
244.20 |
324.50 |
400.45 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
83.97 |
135.20 |
135.20 |
135.20 |
135.20 |
135.20 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
5.76 |
17.73 |
19.34 |
20.36 |
22.54 |
23.07 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.50 |
1.28 |
1.01 |
0.59 |
0.24 |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.07 |
0.13 |
0.14 |
0.15 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.29 |
3.52 |
3.96 |
4.40 |
5.37 |
6.24 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
53.01 |
118.16 |
129.90 |
141.35 |
164.29 |
184.42 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
117.45 |
415.85 |
529.35 |
656.05 |
871.80 |
1,075.85 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
234.52 |
298.52 |
369.95 |
491.59 |
606.65 |
|
| Interest |
191.80 |
187.77 |
173.16 |
119.95 |
58.59 |
|
| Depreciation |
174.16 |
183.75 |
189.84 |
174.13 |
159.73 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
600.48 |
670.04 |
732.95 |
785.68 |
824.96 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
396.38 |
442.29 |
483.82 |
518.63 |
544.56 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
4,518.68 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
396.38 |
442.29 |
483.82 |
518.63 |
5,063.23 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
2,971.63 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
2,971.63 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
59.05 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
4,138 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
1,543 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
2.23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
192 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
63 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
129 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
1,543 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
27% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
27% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
73% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
22% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
544.56 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
6.4% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
4,518.68 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
UltraTech Cem. |
3,969.05 |
1,09,002 |
988.68 |
7.06 |
12.11 |
3.67 |
75.82 |
4.01 |
51.83 |
0.74 |
0.26 |
6.14 |
6.76 |
33,487 |
61.69 |
701 |
-6.96 |
20.03 |
-40.47 |
-11.33 |
| 2 |
Ambuja Cem. |
216.65 |
43,019 |
106.34 |
9.47 |
13.62 |
1.50 |
26.53 |
2.04 |
20.75 |
- |
1.66 |
5.01 |
4.08 |
24,402 |
63.11 |
137 |
-11.96 |
11.87 |
-42.14 |
12.73 |
| 3 |
Shree Cement |
16,416.40 |
57,195 |
2,617.84 |
2.62 |
18.08 |
5.59 |
7.39 |
6.27 |
47.35 |
0.38 |
0.30 |
2.29 |
3.60 |
9,839 |
64.79 |
325 |
-15.74 |
20.73 |
-82.35 |
-7.35 |
| 4 |
ACC |
1,471.15 |
27,626 |
511.13 |
11.09 |
15.51 |
1.79 |
32.74 |
2.88 |
27.79 |
- |
1.77 |
5.23 |
5.55 |
13,873 |
54.53 |
159 |
-10.79 |
10.16 |
-36.38 |
15.21 |
| 5 |
Century Textiles |
904.65 |
10,105 |
261.57 |
29.44 |
14.10 |
1.66 |
17.62 |
3.46 |
19.51 |
1.59 |
0.72 |
23.69 |
22.22 |
8,443 |
50.21 |
75 |
-4.54 |
14.67 |
-3.77 |
196.55 |
| 6 |
Prism Johnson |
82.20 |
4,138 |
21.31 |
3.28 |
11.48 |
0.97 |
52.36 |
3.86 |
26.72 |
1.50 |
- |
3.28 |
3.66 |
5,389 |
74.87 |
-824 |
-10.84 |
14.59 |
-89.97 |
129.49 |
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