PNB HOUSING FINANCE LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on PNB HOUSING FINANCE LTD | Release: 02 Dec 2018 02:52:56 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:PNBHOUSING and BSE CODE:540173
Last Close:  INR 906.5
Fair Value:  INR 978.2
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 859.5
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  15180.67
Industry:  Housing Finance 
Rating:  NEUTRAL
Upside:  8%
Company Profile
PNB Housing Finance is primarily engaged in the business of providing loans to individuals and corporate bodies for purchase, construction, repair and up-gradation of houses. It also provides loans for commercial space, loan against property and loan for purchase of residential plots.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 41% 235% 736%  
EBIT % 40% 208% 714%  
Earnings % 59% 328% 795%  
Book Value %  13% 299% 920%  
Stock Total Return %  5%      
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 32.79  
(B) FII/FPI 50.40  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 10.83  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 3.05  
(E) Others 2.93  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price               1264 1331 860 1028 1133 1137 1022  
Return on Equity 24% 21% 19% 15% 14% 12% 15% 9% 13% 25% 24% 21% 18% 15%  
Price to Earning                40.0 26.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4  
EVTI               13.6 13.4 11.4 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.6  
EVTIFM               40.0 26.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4  
Price to Book Value               3.8 3.5 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1  
Debt to Equity  9.7 9.4 9.7 10.8 10.8 10.4 12.1 6.4 8.6 9.4 9.7 9.7 9.2 8.4  
Dividend Yield               0% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%  
Cash Flow to Firm 1% -11% -5% -33% -28% -28% -29% -13% -19% -16% -12% -7% -1% 6%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       5,516.39       7,582.45       9,807.12     11,888.83     13,447.85     14,120.24  
EBITDA       4,833.99       6,784.06       8,774.49     10,637.01     12,031.87     12,633.46  
EBIT       4,809.88       6,750.92       8,741.76     10,607.34     12,007.38     12,615.24  
PBT       1,279.08       2,949.76       3,528.54       3,887.59       3,900.70       3,508.06  
NPAT          830.65       1,947.14       2,329.19       2,566.20       2,574.85       2,315.67  
Price to Earning             26.70              7.39              7.39              7.39              7.39              7.39  
Price to Book Value              3.52              1.82              1.75              1.59              1.35              1.07  
Debt to Equity               8.57              9.38              9.73              9.66              9.22              8.44  
Return on Equity              0.13              0.25              0.24              0.21              0.18              0.15  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)            13.39            11.36            11.26            11.09            10.87            10.58  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            23.65            19.34            19.14            18.84            18.45            17.95  
Price or Est. Share Prices       1,331.16          859.50       1,028.15       1,132.80       1,136.65       1,022.25  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT       2,949.76       3,528.54       3,887.59       3,900.70       3,508.06  
Interest       3,801.16       5,213.22       6,719.75       8,106.68       9,107.18  
Depreciation            33.14            32.73            29.67            24.49            18.22  
Cash Flow Before Tax       6,784.06       8,774.49     10,637.01     12,031.87     12,633.46  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax       4,478.16       5,792.04       7,021.49       7,942.24       8,339.35  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                    -     190,174.02  
Total Cash Flow       4,478.16       5,792.04       7,021.49       7,942.24   198,513.36  
Present Value of Cash Flow   151,068.03  
Debt   134,686.80  
Value of Equity     16,381.23  
Fair Value Per Share          978.20  
Equity          15,181
Debt          54,072
Beta Take from Reuters 1.9
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 8%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 9%
Interest Paid            3,531
Tax Benefit            1,238
Interest Net of Tax            2,293
Debt          54,072
Cost of Debt 4%
Cost of Equity 25%
Debt Weight 78%
Equity Weight 22%
WACC 9%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E       8,339.35
Growth 3.9%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow   190,174.02
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  H D F C        1,989.00        341,662          412.17            19.60              9.65            13.99            21.16              4.83            34.10              5.21              0.98            14.20        -160.32          45,028                 -                 139            13.05            24.91            12.65            24.71
   2  Indiabulls Hous.           715.60          30,534          362.53            38.24            11.43              7.12            10.62              1.97              7.14              8.21              5.73            20.86        -206.53          17,021            16.87                 40              2.32            26.13            -1.31            21.43
   3  LIC Housing Fin.           466.35          23,534          251.48            22.66              9.60              9.81            13.81              1.85            10.84            11.45              1.46            18.75        -118.98          16,810            40.31                 41              3.73            11.92              0.92            11.54
   4  Dewan Hsg. Fin.           212.75            6,676          331.44            25.42              9.78              6.30            10.42              0.64              4.47            10.53              2.58            21.68        -212.96          14,077            39.21                 15            11.46            33.78              0.86            52.46
   5  H U D C O             43.00            8,608            52.80            14.45              8.06              8.96            15.01              0.81              8.59              3.68              1.28            12.46        -509.98            4,932            89.81                 31          -23.80            27.67          -15.37              6.24
   6  PNB Housing           906.50          15,181          376.60            16.44              9.48              9.25            15.29              2.41            17.23              8.57              0.99            13.47        -292.74            6,922            32.79                 73              7.09            35.79          -11.40              9.58

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