|
Quantamental
Equity Research on INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE LTD | Release: 02 Dec 2018
02:55:03 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:IBULHSGFIN and BSE CODE:535789 |
| Last Close: |
INR 715.6 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 805.4 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 907.95 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
30534.34 |
| Industry: |
Housing Finance |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
27% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd. (IBHFL) is the second largest
private housing finance company in India and is regulated by the National
Housing Bank (NHB). |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
26% |
131% |
239% |
|
| EBIT % |
24% |
97% |
197% |
|
| Earnings % |
32% |
102% |
206% |
|
| Book Value
% |
11% |
102% |
165% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
36% |
134% |
|
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
21.56 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
55.52 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
14.06 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
2.89 |
|
| (E) Others |
5.97 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
|
269 |
567 |
649 |
978 |
1328 |
908 |
1049 |
1132 |
1138 |
1055 |
|
| Return on Equity |
25% |
27% |
29% |
22% |
24% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
22% |
19% |
|
| Price to Earning |
|
5.7 |
10.6 |
11.7 |
14.3 |
14.7 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
|
| EVTI |
|
7.0 |
8.5 |
8.4 |
9.7 |
10.4 |
8.7 |
8.6 |
8.5 |
8.3 |
8.1 |
|
| EVTIFM |
|
5.7 |
10.6 |
11.7 |
14.3 |
14.7 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
|
| Price to Book Value |
|
1.6 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
|
| Debt to Equity |
6.2 |
6.2 |
7.2 |
5.7 |
7.0 |
8.2 |
8.9 |
9.3 |
9.3 |
9.1 |
8.5 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
|
11% |
5% |
7% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
|
| Cash Flow to Firm |
-101% |
4% |
-4% |
-5% |
-10% |
-7% |
-5% |
-2% |
2% |
6% |
11% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
14,632.37 |
18,658.98 |
22,743.23 |
26,441.11 |
29,251.70 |
30,714.28 |
|
| EBITDA |
12,666.48 |
18,254.11 |
22,249.74 |
25,867.38 |
28,616.99 |
30,047.84 |
|
| EBIT |
12,629.43 |
18,206.87 |
22,202.71 |
25,823.22 |
28,578.00 |
30,015.61 |
|
| PBT |
4,975.57 |
6,142.71 |
7,094.75 |
7,660.98 |
7,697.16 |
7,138.97 |
|
| NPAT |
3,847.38 |
4,077.98 |
4,710.02 |
5,085.92 |
5,109.94 |
4,739.38 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
14.72 |
9.50 |
9.50 |
9.50 |
9.50 |
9.50 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
4.22 |
2.50 |
2.50 |
2.36 |
2.10 |
1.76 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
8.21 |
8.91 |
9.27 |
9.31 |
9.05 |
8.53 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.29 |
0.26 |
0.26 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
0.19 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
10.38 |
8.67 |
8.61 |
8.48 |
8.29 |
8.06 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
15.58 |
13.41 |
13.30 |
13.09 |
12.81 |
12.44 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
1,327.59 |
907.95 |
1,048.70 |
1,132.40 |
1,137.75 |
1,055.25 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
6,142.71 |
7,094.75 |
7,660.98 |
7,697.16 |
7,138.97 |
|
| Interest |
12,064.16 |
15,107.96 |
18,162.24 |
20,880.84 |
22,876.64 |
|
| Depreciation |
47.25 |
47.03 |
44.16 |
38.99 |
32.22 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
18,254.11 |
22,249.74 |
25,867.38 |
28,616.99 |
30,047.84 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
12,049.54 |
14,687.05 |
17,075.06 |
18,890.07 |
19,834.58 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
292,337.59 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
12,049.54 |
14,687.05 |
17,075.06 |
18,890.07 |
312,172.17 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
251,853.32 |
|
| Debt |
217,487.37 |
|
| Value of Equity |
34,365.95 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
805.40 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
30,534 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
110,257 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.69 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
7,654 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
1,769 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
5,885 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
110,257 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
23% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
78% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
22% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
9% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
19,834.58 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
1.3% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
292,337.59 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
H D F C |
1,989.00 |
341,662 |
412.17 |
19.60 |
9.65 |
13.99 |
21.16 |
4.83 |
34.10 |
5.21 |
0.98 |
14.20 |
-160.32 |
45,028 |
- |
139 |
13.05 |
24.91 |
12.65 |
24.71 |
| 2 |
Indiabulls Hous. |
715.60 |
30,534 |
362.53 |
38.24 |
11.43 |
7.12 |
10.62 |
1.97 |
7.14 |
8.21 |
5.73 |
20.86 |
-206.53 |
17,021 |
16.87 |
40 |
2.32 |
26.13 |
-1.31 |
21.43 |
| 3 |
LIC Housing Fin. |
466.35 |
23,534 |
251.48 |
22.66 |
9.60 |
9.81 |
13.81 |
1.85 |
10.84 |
11.45 |
1.46 |
18.75 |
-118.98 |
16,810 |
40.31 |
41 |
3.73 |
11.92 |
0.92 |
11.54 |
| 4 |
Dewan Hsg. Fin. |
212.75 |
6,676 |
331.44 |
25.42 |
9.78 |
6.30 |
10.42 |
0.64 |
4.47 |
10.53 |
2.58 |
21.68 |
-212.96 |
14,077 |
39.21 |
15 |
11.46 |
33.78 |
0.86 |
52.46 |
| 5 |
H U D C O |
43.00 |
8,608 |
52.80 |
14.45 |
8.06 |
8.96 |
15.01 |
0.81 |
8.59 |
3.68 |
1.28 |
12.46 |
-509.98 |
4,932 |
89.81 |
31 |
-23.80 |
27.67 |
-15.37 |
6.24 |
| 6 |
PNB Housing |
906.50 |
15,181 |
376.60 |
16.44 |
9.48 |
9.25 |
15.29 |
2.41 |
17.23 |
8.57 |
0.99 |
13.47 |
-292.74 |
6,922 |
32.79 |
73 |
7.09 |
35.79 |
-11.40 |
9.58 |
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