|
Quantamental
Equity Research on HOUSING & URBAN DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION LTD | Release:
02 Dec 2018 12:54:17 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency:
INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:PRAKASH and BSE CODE:506022 |
| Last Close: |
INR 43 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 48.3 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 48.75 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
8608.17 |
| Industry: |
Iron & Steel/Interm.Products |
| Rating: |
BUY |
| Upside: |
13% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Housing & Urban Development Corp. is engaged in the
business of providing loans/finance for Housing/ Infrastructure projects and
all other activities of the Company revolve around the main business within
India. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
17% |
48% |
82% |
|
| EBIT % |
6% |
14% |
28% |
|
| Earnings % |
-5% |
4% |
14% |
|
| Book Value
% |
7% |
26% |
51% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
|
|
|
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
89.81 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.07 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
3.12 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
4.91 |
|
| (E) Others |
2.09 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
69 |
49 |
54 |
57 |
57 |
55 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
10% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17.2 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
|
| EVTI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11.9 |
10.7 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.5 |
10.3 |
|
| EVTIFM |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17.2 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.4 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
3.0 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
39% |
11% |
-3% |
25% |
-4% |
12% |
-10% |
1% |
-10% |
-13% |
-9% |
-5% |
-1% |
4% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
4,132.57 |
5,211.51 |
6,297.13 |
7,276.59 |
8,024.41 |
8,425.63 |
|
| EBITDA |
3,363.61 |
4,244.22 |
5,128.34 |
5,926.00 |
6,535.02 |
6,861.77 |
|
| EBIT |
3,358.18 |
4,237.37 |
5,120.15 |
5,916.64 |
6,524.81 |
6,851.18 |
|
| PBT |
1,090.50 |
1,969.69 |
2,176.69 |
2,300.36 |
2,313.76 |
2,206.18 |
|
| NPAT |
799.06 |
1,300.19 |
1,436.83 |
1,518.47 |
1,527.31 |
1,456.30 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
17.20 |
7.50 |
7.50 |
7.50 |
7.50 |
7.50 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.40 |
0.89 |
0.88 |
0.84 |
0.77 |
0.68 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
3.68 |
4.29 |
4.73 |
4.98 |
5.00 |
4.81 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
0.11 |
0.10 |
0.09 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
11.88 |
10.71 |
10.71 |
10.64 |
10.52 |
10.32 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
20.49 |
20.53 |
20.54 |
20.41 |
20.16 |
19.79 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
68.65 |
48.75 |
53.90 |
57.00 |
57.35 |
54.70 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
1,969.69 |
2,176.69 |
2,300.36 |
2,313.76 |
2,206.18 |
|
| Interest |
2,267.68 |
2,943.46 |
3,616.28 |
4,211.05 |
4,645.00 |
|
| Depreciation |
6.85 |
8.19 |
9.36 |
10.21 |
10.60 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
4,244.22 |
5,128.34 |
5,926.00 |
6,535.02 |
6,861.77 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
2,801.61 |
3,385.22 |
3,911.76 |
4,313.77 |
4,529.46 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
102,949.31 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
2,801.61 |
3,385.22 |
3,911.76 |
4,313.77 |
107,478.76 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
86,945.77 |
|
| Debt |
77,283.96 |
|
| Value of Equity |
9,661.81 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
48.30 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
8,608 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
36,192 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
2,268 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
606 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
1,662 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
36,192 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
81% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
19% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
7% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
4,529.46 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
2.7% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
102,949.31 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
H D F C |
1,989.00 |
341,662 |
412.17 |
19.60 |
9.65 |
13.99 |
21.16 |
4.83 |
34.10 |
5.21 |
0.98 |
14.20 |
-160.32 |
45,028 |
- |
139 |
13.05 |
24.91 |
12.65 |
24.71 |
| 2 |
Indiabulls Hous. |
715.60 |
30,534 |
362.53 |
38.24 |
11.43 |
7.12 |
10.62 |
1.97 |
7.14 |
8.21 |
5.73 |
20.86 |
-206.53 |
17,021 |
16.87 |
40 |
2.32 |
26.13 |
-1.31 |
21.43 |
| 3 |
LIC Housing Fin. |
466.35 |
23,534 |
251.48 |
22.66 |
9.60 |
9.81 |
13.81 |
1.85 |
10.84 |
11.45 |
1.46 |
18.75 |
-118.98 |
16,810 |
40.31 |
41 |
3.73 |
11.92 |
0.92 |
11.54 |
| 4 |
Dewan Hsg. Fin. |
212.75 |
6,676 |
331.44 |
25.42 |
9.78 |
6.30 |
10.42 |
0.64 |
4.47 |
10.53 |
2.58 |
21.68 |
-212.96 |
14,077 |
39.21 |
15 |
11.46 |
33.78 |
0.86 |
52.46 |
| 5 |
H U D C O |
43.00 |
8,608 |
52.80 |
14.45 |
8.06 |
8.96 |
15.01 |
0.81 |
8.59 |
3.68 |
1.28 |
12.46 |
-509.98 |
4,932 |
89.81 |
31 |
-23.80 |
27.67 |
-15.37 |
6.24 |
| 6 |
PNB Housing |
906.50 |
15,181 |
376.60 |
16.44 |
9.48 |
9.25 |
15.29 |
2.41 |
17.23 |
8.57 |
0.99 |
13.47 |
-292.74 |
6,922 |
32.79 |
73 |
7.09 |
35.79 |
-11.40 |
9.58 |
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