HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD | Release: 02 Dec 2018 03:00:40 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:HDFC and BSE CODE:500010
Last Close:  INR 1989
Fair Value:  INR 2093.45
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 1909.25
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  341661.68
Industry:  Housing Finance 
Rating:  NEUTRAL
Upside:  5%
Company Profile
HDFC is engaged in financing by way of loans for the purchase or construction of residential houses, commercial real estate and certain other purposes, in India.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 6% 58% 106%  
EBIT % 19% 41% 83%  
Earnings % 63% 103% 151%  
Book Value %  55% 98% 147%  
Stock Total Return %  22% 44% 128%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 0.00  
(B) FII/FPI 72.19  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 16.45  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 7.01  
(E) Others 4.35  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 553 709 679 807 893 1277 1108 1506 1844 1909 2166 2358 2461 2459  
Return on Equity 19% 20% 22% 20% 19% 19% 21% 19% 20% 17% 17% 17% 16% 14%  
Price to Earning  28.1 29.4 24.3 25.8 25.6 33.6 24.7 32.1 25.4 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0  
EVTI 14.5 16.1 13.1 12.8 12.8 14.4 12.8 15.0 15.4 14.6 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.4  
EVTIFM 28.1 29.4 24.3 25.8 25.6 33.6 24.7 32.1 25.4 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0  
Price to Book Value 5.2 6.0 5.3 5.0 5.0 6.5 5.1 6.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.8  
Debt to Equity  6.4 6.6 7.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.1 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.2  
Dividend Yield 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%  
Cash Flow to Firm -2% -3% -3% 0% 0% 1% 1% -1% -2% -5% -3% -1% 2% 4%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales     35,185.17     43,146.89     51,008.70     58,055.05        63,516.30     66,692.12  
EBITDA     37,547.93     40,682.77     48,095.59     54,739.53        59,888.88     62,883.33  
EBIT     37,498.69     40,622.39     48,024.99     54,660.08        59,802.99     62,802.32  
PBT     15,263.69     18,387.39     20,858.41     22,711.55        23,698.51     23,683.38  
NPAT     12,163.69     12,137.51     13,768.64     14,991.89        15,643.39     15,633.40  
Price to Earning             25.41            27.02            27.02            27.02               27.02            27.02  
Price to Book Value              5.04              4.70              4.69              4.51                 4.20              3.79  
Debt to Equity               5.21              5.60              5.79              5.78                 5.59              5.23  
Return on Equity              0.20              0.17              0.17              0.17                 0.16              0.14  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)            15.39            14.60            14.37            14.09               13.75            13.38  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            22.90            30.24            29.77            29.18               28.49            27.71  
Price or Est. Share Prices       1,844.30       1,909.25       2,165.85       2,358.30          2,460.80       2,459.25  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT     18,387.39     20,858.41     22,711.55     23,698.51        23,683.38  
Interest     22,235.00     27,166.57     31,948.53     36,104.48        39,118.95  
Depreciation            60.38            70.61            79.45            85.90               81.01  
Cash Flow Before Tax     40,682.77     48,095.59     54,739.53     59,888.88        62,883.33  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99               33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax     26,854.70     31,747.90     36,133.56     39,532.65        41,509.29  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                    -     1,448,689.45  
Total Cash Flow     26,854.70     31,747.90     36,133.56     39,532.65   1,490,198.74  
Present Value of Cash Flow      943,075.48  
Debt      583,477.79  
Value of Equity      359,597.70  
Fair Value Per Share          2,093.45  
Equity           341,662
Debt           319,912
Beta Take from Reuters 1.18
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 8%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 9%
Interest Paid             22,235
Tax Benefit               4,516
Interest Net of Tax             17,719
Debt           319,912
Cost of Debt 6%
Cost of Equity 18%
Debt Weight 48%
Equity Weight 52%
WACC 12%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E        41,509.29
Growth 6.0%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow   1,448,689.45
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  H D F C        1,989.00        341,662          412.17            19.60                 9.65            13.99            21.16              4.83            34.10              5.21              0.98            14.20        -160.32          45,028                 -                 139            13.05            24.91            12.65            24.71
   2  Indiabulls Hous.           715.60          30,534          362.53            38.24               11.43              7.12            10.62              1.97              7.14              8.21              5.73            20.86        -206.53          17,021            16.87                 40              2.32            26.13            -1.31            21.43
   3  LIC Housing Fin.           466.35          23,534          251.48            22.66                 9.60              9.81            13.81              1.85            10.84            11.45              1.46            18.75        -118.98          16,810            40.31                 41              3.73            11.92              0.92            11.54
   4  Dewan Hsg. Fin.           212.75            6,676          331.44            25.42                 9.78              6.30            10.42              0.64              4.47            10.53              2.58            21.68        -212.96          14,077            39.21                 15            11.46            33.78              0.86            52.46
   5  H U D C O             43.00            8,608            52.80            14.45                 8.06              8.96            15.01              0.81              8.59              3.68              1.28            12.46        -509.98            4,932            89.81                 31          -23.80            27.67          -15.37              6.24
   6  PNB Housing           906.50          15,181          376.60            16.44                 9.48              9.25            15.29              2.41            17.23              8.57              0.99            13.47        -292.74            6,922            32.79                 73              7.09            35.79          -11.40              9.58

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular Posts