|
Quantamental
Equity Research on HIKAL LTD | Release: 01 Dec 2018 17:31:32 UTC+05:30 |
Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:HIKAL and BSE CODE:524735 |
| Last Close: |
INR 151.15 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 217.55 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 103.45 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
1863.69 |
| Industry: |
Pharmaceuticals |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
44% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Hikal Ltd offers solutions across the life sciences value
chain. They provide world-class active ingredients, intermediates and R&D
services to global pharmaceuticals, animal health, biotech, crop protection
and specialty chemicals companies. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
28% |
21% |
29% |
|
| EBIT % |
22% |
34% |
72% |
|
| Earnings % |
9% |
91% |
203% |
|
| Book Value
% |
11% |
57% |
95% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
11% |
65% |
199% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
0.00 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.00 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
0.00 |
|
| (E) Others |
100.00 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
51 |
42 |
38 |
53 |
65 |
96 |
91 |
142 |
158 |
103 |
132 |
163 |
193 |
217 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
21% |
14% |
15% |
7% |
16% |
9% |
9% |
12% |
12% |
14% |
15% |
16% |
17% |
16% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
7.0 |
7.8 |
5.7 |
17.1 |
8.3 |
19.4 |
18.0 |
16.6 |
16.8 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
|
| EVTI |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
|
| EVTIFM |
7.0 |
7.8 |
5.7 |
17.1 |
8.3 |
19.4 |
18.0 |
16.6 |
16.8 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.5 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
3% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
7% |
4% |
17% |
5% |
28% |
9% |
12% |
-5% |
5% |
-2% |
3% |
6% |
10% |
16% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,296.09 |
1,682.50 |
2,079.75 |
2,441.76 |
2,715.32 |
2,851.09 |
|
| EBITDA |
246.21 |
321.16 |
396.99 |
466.09 |
518.31 |
544.23 |
|
| EBIT |
160.62 |
210.05 |
269.18 |
327.01 |
375.58 |
406.61 |
|
| PBT |
111.50 |
160.93 |
205.68 |
253.59 |
299.51 |
337.43 |
|
| NPAT |
77.23 |
106.23 |
135.77 |
167.40 |
197.71 |
222.74 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
16.81 |
12.01 |
12.01 |
12.01 |
12.01 |
12.01 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.94 |
1.68 |
1.86 |
1.97 |
1.99 |
1.93 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.95 |
1.08 |
1.08 |
0.96 |
0.75 |
0.45 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.12 |
0.14 |
0.15 |
0.16 |
0.17 |
0.16 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.48 |
1.24 |
1.23 |
1.22 |
1.20 |
1.15 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
18.08 |
15.76 |
15.14 |
14.46 |
13.75 |
12.81 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
157.93 |
103.45 |
132.25 |
163.10 |
192.65 |
217.05 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
160.93 |
205.68 |
253.59 |
299.51 |
337.43 |
|
| Interest |
49.12 |
63.50 |
73.41 |
76.07 |
69.18 |
|
| Depreciation |
111.11 |
127.81 |
139.08 |
142.73 |
137.62 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
321.16 |
396.99 |
466.09 |
518.31 |
544.23 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
212.00 |
262.05 |
307.67 |
342.14 |
359.24 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
5,093.54 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
212.00 |
262.05 |
307.67 |
342.14 |
5,452.78 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
3,304.79 |
|
| Debt |
622.75 |
|
| Value of Equity |
2,682.04 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
217.55 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
1,864 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
635 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
49 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
15 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
34 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
635 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
25% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
75% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
16% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
359.24 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
8.2% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
5,093.54 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Lupin |
886.75 |
40,105 |
298.72 |
10.24 |
10.21 |
2.72 |
130.77 |
2.97 |
32.34 |
0.53 |
0.56 |
1.03 |
0.79 |
16,728 |
47.00 |
1,072 |
2.47 |
-0.02 |
32.23 |
-41.24 |
| 2 |
Divi's Lab. |
1,439.35 |
38,210 |
237.46 |
34.93 |
21.37 |
6.65 |
26.87 |
6.06 |
33.22 |
0.01 |
0.69 |
24.27 |
31.34 |
5,460 |
52.02 |
120 |
29.11 |
44.35 |
49.40 |
92.31 |
| 3 |
Jubilant Life |
774.80 |
12,343 |
288.71 |
26.01 |
15.26 |
1.70 |
15.44 |
2.68 |
15.92 |
0.85 |
0.39 |
24.12 |
21.80 |
9,093 |
50.68 |
60 |
9.18 |
38.23 |
4.69 |
67.19 |
| 4 |
Vinati Organics |
1,450.80 |
7,456 |
174.75 |
42.54 |
27.52 |
6.96 |
32.29 |
8.30 |
35.02 |
0.02 |
0.31 |
35.70 |
44.19 |
1,054 |
74.01 |
137 |
-4.51 |
57.34 |
1.21 |
123.09 |
| 5 |
Granules India |
88.65 |
2,254 |
55.66 |
23.91 |
11.92 |
1.24 |
14.81 |
1.59 |
13.86 |
0.75 |
1.13 |
19.33 |
15.78 |
2,392 |
17.80 |
52 |
28.16 |
47.97 |
16.33 |
49.38 |
| 6 |
Hikal |
151.15 |
1,864 |
56.95 |
18.45 |
12.81 |
1.56 |
17.42 |
2.65 |
20.95 |
0.95 |
0.53 |
16.09 |
14.43 |
1,581 |
68.77 |
77 |
21.27 |
35.09 |
53.36 |
59.36 |
Comments
Post a Comment