GRUH FINANCE LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on GRUH FINANCE LTD | Release: 02 Dec 2018 02:52:56 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GRUH and BSE CODE:511288
Last Close:  INR 296.7
Fair Value:  INR 298.7
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 171.7
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  21730.06
Industry:  Housing Finance 
Rating:  NEUTRAL
Upside:  1%
Company Profile
GRUH Finance Limited (GRUH) is a Housing Finance Company established in July 1986 and recognised by National Housing Bank (NHB).
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 13% 74% 186%  
EBIT % 13% 58% 157%  
Earnings % 22% 78% 149%  
Book Value %  24% 94% 181%  
Stock Total Return %         
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 57.86  
(B) FII/FPI 10.47  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 10.51  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 9.99  
(E) Others 11.17  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price                   172 200 233 271 314  
Return on Equity 26% 29% 31% 30% 29% 29% 29% 27% 26% 30% 29% 27% 26% 25%  
Price to Earning                    23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9  
EVTI                   14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8  
EVTIFM                   23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9  
Price to Book Value                   7.3 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.1  
Debt to Equity  8.8 9.3 9.9 10.0 10.7 11.5 12.3 10.8 10.2 9.3 8.6 8.0 7.5 7.2  
Dividend Yield                   1% 1% 1% 1% 1%  
Cash Flow to Firm 9% -11% -11% -9% -12% -8% -7% -4% -4% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       1,687.19       1,940.27       2,231.31       2,566.01       2,950.91       3,393.54  
EBITDA       1,547.61       1,781.86       2,049.14       2,356.51       2,709.99       3,116.49  
EBIT       1,544.52       1,778.31       2,045.87       2,353.51       2,707.22       3,113.95  
PBT          562.07          795.86          927.77       1,079.76       1,254.85       1,456.49  
NPAT          362.68          525.35          612.42          712.75          828.33          961.43  
Price to Earning                  -              23.93            23.93            23.93            23.93            23.93  
Price to Book Value                 -                7.27              6.86              6.54              6.27              6.06  
Debt to Equity             10.23              9.30              8.57              8.00              7.54              7.17  
Return on Equity              0.26              0.30              0.29              0.27              0.26              0.25  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              8.28            14.69            14.71            14.73            14.74            14.76  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            14.02            24.28            24.30            24.32            24.34            24.36  
Price or Est. Share Prices                 -            171.70          200.16          232.95          270.72          314.23  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          795.86          927.77       1,079.76       1,254.85       1,456.49  
Interest          982.45       1,118.10       1,273.75       1,452.37       1,657.45  
Depreciation              3.55              3.27              3.00              2.76              2.54  
Cash Flow Before Tax       1,781.86       2,049.14       2,356.51       2,709.99       3,116.49  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax       1,176.21       1,352.64       1,555.53       1,788.86       2,057.19  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                    -       73,010.49  
Total Cash Flow       1,176.21       1,352.64       1,555.53       1,788.86     75,067.69  
Present Value of Cash Flow     49,093.39  
Debt     27,220.36  
Value of Equity     21,873.02  
Fair Value Per Share          298.70  
Equity          21,730
Debt          14,128
Beta Take from Reuters 0.84
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 8%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 9%
Interest Paid               982
Tax Benefit               349
Interest Net of Tax               634
Debt          14,128
Cost of Debt 4%
Cost of Equity 15%
Debt Weight 39%
Equity Weight 61%
WACC 11%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E       2,057.19
Growth 7.8%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow     73,010.49
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  H D F C        1,989.00        341,662          412.17            19.60              9.65            13.99            21.16              4.83            34.10              5.21              0.98            14.20        -160.32          45,028                 -                 139            13.05            24.91            12.65            24.71
   2  Indiabulls Hous.           715.60          30,534          362.53            38.24            11.43              7.12            10.62              1.97              7.14              8.21              5.73            20.86        -206.53          17,021            16.87                 40              2.32            26.13            -1.31            21.43
   3  LIC Housing Fin.           466.35          23,534          251.48            22.66              9.60              9.81            13.81              1.85            10.84            11.45              1.46            18.75        -118.98          16,810            40.31                 41              3.73            11.92              0.92            11.54
   4  GRUH Finance           296.70          21,730            22.69            37.91            10.77            18.54            28.29            13.08            50.15            10.23              0.56            25.30        -137.02            1,922            57.86               206              6.27            15.45            -8.36            20.05
   5  PNB Housing           906.50          15,181          376.60            16.44              9.48              9.25            15.29              2.41            17.23              8.57              0.99            13.47        -292.74            6,922            32.79                 73              7.09            35.79          -11.40              9.58
   6  H U D C O             43.00            8,608            52.80            14.45              8.06              8.96            15.01              0.81              8.59              3.68              1.28            12.46        -509.98            4,932            89.81                 31          -23.80            27.67          -15.37              6.24

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