|
Quantamental
Equity Research on GIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD | Release: 03 Dec 2018 16:30:28
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GICHSGFIN and BSE CODE:511676 |
| Last Close: |
INR 233.55 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 289.1 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 315.25 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
1257.67 |
| Industry: |
Housing Finance |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
35% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| GIC Housing Finance is exclusively engaged in the Housing
Finance business. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
13% |
68% |
139% |
|
| EBIT % |
10% |
49% |
102% |
|
| Earnings % |
25% |
79% |
117% |
|
| Book Value
% |
18% |
50% |
80% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
-15% |
73% |
263% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
42.41 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
2.92 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
11.60 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
23.47 |
|
| (E) Others |
19.60 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
90 |
114 |
90 |
111 |
114 |
233 |
254 |
477 |
403 |
315 |
338 |
359 |
377 |
393 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
17% |
24% |
12% |
15% |
16% |
16% |
17% |
18% |
19% |
16% |
15% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
7.2 |
5.4 |
8.2 |
7.0 |
6.3 |
12.2 |
11.0 |
17.4 |
11.8 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
|
| EVTI |
9.8 |
8.6 |
9.3 |
8.2 |
8.4 |
9.6 |
9.5 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
10.1 |
10.1 |
10.0 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
|
| EVTIFM |
7.2 |
5.4 |
8.2 |
7.0 |
6.3 |
12.2 |
11.0 |
17.4 |
11.8 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
6.8 |
6.6 |
7.2 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
8.8 |
9.6 |
9.8 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
8.9 |
8.3 |
7.8 |
7.3 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
6% |
-4% |
-2% |
3% |
-2% |
-5% |
-4% |
-2% |
-6% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
5% |
6% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,128.39 |
1,232.88 |
1,333.91 |
1,429.02 |
1,515.69 |
1,591.47 |
|
| EBITDA |
985.23 |
1,097.39 |
1,187.32 |
1,271.97 |
1,349.11 |
1,416.57 |
|
| EBIT |
984.59 |
1,096.69 |
1,186.85 |
1,271.66 |
1,348.91 |
1,416.44 |
|
| PBT |
271.83 |
284.09 |
304.48 |
323.12 |
339.65 |
353.85 |
|
| NPAT |
184.43 |
187.53 |
200.99 |
213.29 |
224.20 |
233.58 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
11.77 |
9.05 |
9.05 |
9.05 |
9.05 |
9.05 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.19 |
1.48 |
1.39 |
1.30 |
1.21 |
1.13 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
10.08 |
9.46 |
8.88 |
8.33 |
7.80 |
7.28 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.19 |
0.16 |
0.15 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.13 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
10.75 |
10.15 |
10.08 |
10.01 |
9.94 |
9.86 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
18.16 |
17.28 |
17.16 |
17.04 |
16.91 |
16.78 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
403.08 |
315.25 |
337.90 |
358.60 |
376.95 |
392.75 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
284.09 |
304.48 |
323.12 |
339.65 |
353.85 |
|
| Interest |
812.60 |
882.37 |
948.54 |
1,009.26 |
1,062.58 |
|
| Depreciation |
0.70 |
0.46 |
0.31 |
0.20 |
0.13 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
1,097.39 |
1,187.32 |
1,271.97 |
1,349.11 |
1,416.57 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
724.38 |
783.75 |
839.63 |
890.55 |
935.08 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
16,456.07 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
724.38 |
783.75 |
839.63 |
890.55 |
17,391.14 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
15,153.67 |
|
| Debt |
13,596.91 |
|
| Value of Equity |
1,556.76 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
289.10 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
1,258 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
9,984 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.81 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
713 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
229 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
484 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
9,984 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
24% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
89% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
11% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
7% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
935.08 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
0.9% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
16,456.07 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
H D F C |
1,989.00 |
341,662 |
412.17 |
19.60 |
9.65 |
13.99 |
21.16 |
4.83 |
34.10 |
5.21 |
0.98 |
14.20 |
-160.32 |
45,028 |
- |
139 |
13.05 |
24.91 |
12.65 |
24.71 |
| 2 |
Indiabulls Hous. |
715.60 |
30,534 |
362.53 |
38.59 |
11.43 |
7.12 |
10.58 |
1.97 |
7.11 |
8.21 |
5.73 |
21.05 |
-204.62 |
17,021 |
16.87 |
40 |
2.32 |
26.13 |
-1.00 |
21.22 |
| 3 |
LIC Housing Fin. |
466.35 |
23,534 |
251.48 |
22.66 |
9.60 |
9.81 |
13.81 |
1.85 |
10.84 |
11.45 |
1.46 |
18.75 |
-118.98 |
16,810 |
40.31 |
41 |
3.73 |
11.92 |
0.92 |
11.54 |
| 4 |
Dewan Hsg. Fin. |
212.75 |
6,676 |
331.44 |
25.42 |
9.78 |
6.30 |
10.42 |
0.64 |
4.47 |
10.53 |
2.58 |
21.68 |
-212.96 |
14,077 |
39.21 |
15 |
11.46 |
33.78 |
0.86 |
52.46 |
| 5 |
H U D C O |
43.00 |
8,608 |
52.80 |
14.45 |
8.06 |
8.96 |
15.01 |
0.81 |
8.59 |
3.68 |
1.28 |
12.46 |
-509.98 |
4,932 |
89.81 |
31 |
-23.80 |
27.67 |
-15.37 |
6.24 |
| 6 |
GIC Housing Fin |
233.55 |
1,258 |
218.95 |
23.08 |
9.82 |
9.25 |
13.60 |
1.07 |
6.36 |
10.08 |
2.36 |
19.37 |
-141.46 |
1,206 |
42.41 |
27 |
2.94 |
11.90 |
-6.57 |
-1.01 |
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