GE T&D INDIA LTD - Quantamental Equity Research Report

	Quantamental Equity Research on GE T&D INDIA LTD | Release: 01 Dec 2018 17:35:51 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GET&D and BSE CODE:522275
	Last Close:	INR 231.35
	Fair Value:	INR 87.7
	Est. Price by Mar 19:	INR 236.9
	Market Capitalization (INR Crs):	5923.72
	Industry:	Electric Utilities
	Rating:	NEUTRAL
	Upside:	2%
	Company Profile
	GE T&D India is in the business of building the power transmission and distribution infrastructure. It has a portfolio of products, solutions and services, comprising the entire range of transmission equipment up to Extra and Ultra High Voltages (765 kV and beyond), including air-insulated switchgear (AIS) and locally manufactured power transformers and gas-insulated switchgear (GIS).
	Growth Per Share
	Particulars	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year
	Revenue %	7%	7%	16%
	EBIT %	289%	63%	98%
	Earnings %	-341%	73%	148%
	Book Value %	15%	-9%	31%
	Stock Total Return %	12%	-32%	150%
	Share holding pattern
	Particulars	%age
	(A) Promoter & Promoter Group	75.00
	(B) FII/FPI	2.61
	(C) DII/Insurance Companies	14.56
	(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap.	5.96
	(E) Others	1.87
	Grand Total	100.00
	Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
	Particulars	Dec-09	Dec-10	Mar-12	Mar-13	Mar-14	Mar-15	Mar-16	Mar-17	Mar-18	Mar-19 E	Mar-20 E	Mar-21 E	Mar-22 E	Mar-23 E
	Price	216	246	170	153	259	562	410	341	383	237	326	350	374	400
	Return on Equity	22%	19%	19%	9%	9%	9%	3%	-8%	18%	19%	24%	23%	22%	21%
	Price to Earning	26.9	31.4	25.1	43.6	56.7	119.3	304.1	-100.8	47.0	24.0	24.0	24.0	24.0	24.0
	EVTI	1.7	1.7	1.1	1.3	2.0	3.9	3.2	2.2	2.2	1.3	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6
	EVTIFM	26.9	31.4	25.1	43.6	56.7	119.3	304.1	-100.8	47.0	24.0	24.0	24.0	24.0	24.0
	Price to Book Value	6.0	5.9	4.7	4.0	5.3	11.0	8.9	8.5	8.3	4.7	5.7	5.5	5.3	5.1
	Debt to Equity	0.9	0.9	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Dividend Yield	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%
	Cash Flow to Firm	-1%	2%	18%	10%	-1%	3%	1%	2%	7%	10%	7%	7%	6%	6%
	Detailed Estimates
	Title	Mar-18	Mar-19 E	Mar-20 E	Mar-21 E	Mar-22 E	Mar-23 E
	Sales	4,331.71	4,491.08	4,671.15	4,873.86	5,101.46	5,356.54
	EBITDA	514.52	581.89	605.22	631.49	660.98	694.03
	EBIT	424.66	488.73	526.43	564.86	604.63	646.37
	PBT	318.81	382.88	526.43	564.86	604.63	646.37
	NPAT	208.76	252.74	347.50	372.86	399.11	426.67
	Price to Earning	47.02	24.00	24.00	24.00	24.00	24.00
	Price to Book Value	8.25	4.66	5.72	5.50	5.31	5.13
	Debt to Equity	0.08	-	-	-	-	-
	Return on Equity	0.18	0.19	0.24	0.23	0.22	0.21
	Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)	2.17	1.26	1.62	1.63	1.63	1.63
	Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)	261.05	129.26	161.49	158.11	155.23	152.76
	Price or Est. Share Prices	383.33	236.90	325.75	349.55	374.20	400.05
	DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
	Title	Mar-19 E	Mar-20 E	Mar-21 E	Mar-22 E	Mar-23 E
	PBT	382.88	526.43	564.86	604.63	646.37
	Interest	105.85	-	-	-	-
	Depreciation	93.17	78.79	66.63	56.35	47.66
	Cash Flow Before Tax	581.89	605.22	631.49	660.98	694.03
	Tax Rate	33.99	33.99	33.99	33.99	33.99
	Cash Flow After Tax	384.11	399.51	416.85	436.31	458.13
	Terminal Cash Flow	-				2,484.34
	Total Cash Flow	384.11	399.51	416.85	436.31	2,942.46
Present Value of Cash Flow					2,245.16
Debt					-
Value of Equity					2,245.16
Fair Value Per Share					87.70
Equity					5,924
Debt					100
Beta	Take from Reuters				1.27
Risk Free Rate	Prevailing Yield in India				8%
Market Risk Premium	Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments				9%
Interest Paid					106
Tax Benefit					37
Interest Net of Tax					69
Debt					100
Cost of Debt					69%
Cost of Equity					19%
Debt Weight					2%
Equity Weight					98%
WACC					20%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E					458.13
Growth					3.5%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow					2,484.34
Peer Comparision
#	Name	CMP Rs.	Mar Cap Rs.Cr.	B.V. Rs.	Annualized ROE %	ROCE %	Latest EVTI	Latest EVTIFM	CMP / BV	P/E	Debt / Eq	Div Yld %	Growth Rate R %	SGR %	Ann Total Income	PQEIOI	QoQ Sales %	Qtr Sales Var %	QoQ Profits %	Qtr Profit Var %	Graham's Number Rs.
1	B H E L	68.15	25,021	88.83	2.83	5.77	0.47	39.92	0.77	26.31	-	2.67	0.49	0.50	27,726	63.06	747	14.23	4.90	19.02	60.43
2	Siemens	950.65	33,855	233.22	17.93	15.64	1.84	35.26	4.08	37.88	-	0.74	13.99	11.70	16,062	75.00	167	28.19	25.38	36.59	21.29
3	Havells India	684.70	42,826	61.45	23.52	27.61	4.65	69.33	11.14	53.52	0.03	0.58	15.26	15.39	8,901	59.55	297	-15.61	23.27	-15.10	4.44
4	A B B	1,408.70	29,852	175.08	14.94	17.70	2.82	76.24	8.05	61.61	0.17	0.31	11.62	13.35	10,175	75.00	374	-7.28	30.78	6.06	29.92
5	Crompton Gr. Con	216.95	13,599	13.63	46.82	42.19	3.27	44.02	15.91	38.43	0.82	0.81	30.96	56.78	4,191	19.78	203	-13.79	8.14	-26.24	8.63
6	GE T&D India	231.35	5,924	52.77	21.36	29.52	1.35	36.36	4.38	25.41	0.08	0.78	16.64	20.41	4,068	75.00	214	-14.55	14.18	-37.26	8.33