|
Quantamental
Equity Research on GE POWER INDIA LTD | Release: 01 Dec 2018 17:33:51
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GEPIL and BSE CODE:532309 |
| Last Close: |
INR 816.4 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 532.3 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 208.4 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
5488.66 |
| Industry: |
Heavy Electrical Equipment |
| Rating: |
STRONG SELL |
| Downside: |
-35% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| GE Power India operations includes a composite range of
activities viz. engineering, procurement, manufacturing, construction and
servicing etc. of power plants and power equipment. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
-33% |
27% |
43% |
|
| EBIT % |
-15% |
-73% |
-74% |
|
| Earnings % |
9059% |
-85% |
-86% |
|
| Book Value
% |
0% |
-15% |
4% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
40% |
20% |
174% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
68.58 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
2.20 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
15.33 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
9.19 |
|
| (E) Others |
4.70 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
618 |
607 |
378 |
319 |
404 |
729 |
627 |
622 |
873 |
208 |
404 |
575 |
680 |
927 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
34% |
29% |
24% |
23% |
25% |
18% |
-7% |
0% |
3% |
3% |
8% |
12% |
15% |
17% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
24.8 |
24.1 |
15.2 |
11.7 |
11.8 |
27.7 |
-73.0 |
14427.6 |
221.0 |
48.0 |
38.4 |
30.7 |
24.6 |
24.6 |
|
| EVTI |
2.0 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
4.4 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
|
| EVTIFM |
24.8 |
24.1 |
15.2 |
11.7 |
11.8 |
27.7 |
-73.0 |
14427.6 |
221.0 |
48.0 |
38.4 |
30.7 |
24.6 |
24.6 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
8.5 |
7.0 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
7.1 |
1.6 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
4% |
4% |
5% |
8% |
8% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
2% |
0% |
5% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,337.97 |
2,006.96 |
2,508.69 |
2,822.28 |
2,998.67 |
3,148.61 |
|
| EBITDA |
125.26 |
120.42 |
200.70 |
282.23 |
359.84 |
440.80 |
|
| EBIT |
74.46 |
44.22 |
107.10 |
190.67 |
281.71 |
383.91 |
|
| PBT |
42.27 |
44.22 |
107.10 |
190.67 |
281.71 |
383.91 |
|
| NPAT |
26.56 |
29.19 |
70.70 |
125.86 |
185.96 |
253.42 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
220.99 |
48.00 |
38.40 |
30.72 |
24.58 |
24.58 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
7.07 |
1.63 |
2.92 |
3.66 |
3.68 |
4.16 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
- |
0.04 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.15 |
0.17 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
4.42 |
0.72 |
1.07 |
1.30 |
1.38 |
1.75 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
104.42 |
41.22 |
31.69 |
24.31 |
18.44 |
17.99 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
873.09 |
208.40 |
403.85 |
575.20 |
679.90 |
926.55 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
44.22 |
107.10 |
190.67 |
281.71 |
383.91 |
|
| Interest |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
76.20 |
93.59 |
91.56 |
78.13 |
56.90 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
120.42 |
200.70 |
282.23 |
359.84 |
440.80 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
79.49 |
132.48 |
186.30 |
237.53 |
290.98 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
7,400.06 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
79.49 |
132.48 |
186.30 |
237.53 |
7,691.04 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
3,578.41 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
3,578.41 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
532.30 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
5,489 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
32 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
19% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
19% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
290.98 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
15.0% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
7,400.06 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
B H E L |
68.15 |
25,021 |
88.83 |
2.83 |
5.77 |
0.47 |
39.92 |
0.77 |
26.31 |
- |
2.67 |
0.49 |
0.50 |
27,726 |
63.06 |
747 |
14.23 |
4.90 |
19.02 |
60.43 |
| 2 |
Siemens |
950.65 |
33,855 |
233.22 |
17.93 |
15.64 |
1.84 |
35.26 |
4.08 |
37.88 |
- |
0.74 |
13.99 |
11.70 |
16,062 |
75.00 |
167 |
28.19 |
25.38 |
36.59 |
21.29 |
| 3 |
Havells India |
684.70 |
42,826 |
61.45 |
23.52 |
27.61 |
4.65 |
69.33 |
11.14 |
53.52 |
0.03 |
0.58 |
15.26 |
15.39 |
8,901 |
59.55 |
297 |
-15.61 |
23.27 |
-15.10 |
4.44 |
| 4 |
A B B |
1,408.70 |
29,852 |
175.08 |
14.94 |
17.70 |
2.82 |
76.24 |
8.05 |
61.61 |
0.17 |
0.31 |
11.62 |
13.35 |
10,175 |
75.00 |
374 |
-7.28 |
30.78 |
6.06 |
29.92 |
| 5 |
Crompton Gr. Con |
216.95 |
13,599 |
13.63 |
46.82 |
42.19 |
3.27 |
44.02 |
15.91 |
38.43 |
0.82 |
0.81 |
30.96 |
56.78 |
4,191 |
19.78 |
203 |
-13.79 |
8.14 |
-26.24 |
8.63 |
| 6 |
GE Power |
816.40 |
5,489 |
122.20 |
3.16 |
26.31 |
2.18 |
6.50 |
6.68 |
24.41 |
- |
0.37 |
0.76 |
0.48 |
2,031 |
68.58 |
90 |
27.14 |
115.08 |
115.16 |
1,059.42 |
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