|
Quantamental
Equity Research on DEWAN HOUSING FINANCE CORPORATION LTD | Release: 02 Dec
2018 12:52:28 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:DHFL and BSE CODE:511072 |
| Last Close: |
INR 212.75 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 249.7 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 265.25 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
6676.07 |
| Industry: |
Housing Finance |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
25% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Dewan Housing Finance Corporation's main business is of
providing loans to Retail customers for construction or purchase of
residential property, loans against property. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
-3% |
98% |
201% |
|
| EBIT % |
-7% |
73% |
150% |
|
| Earnings % |
-60% |
89% |
159% |
|
| Book Value
% |
10% |
90% |
172% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
42% |
148% |
578% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
39.21 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
19.43 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
6.42 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
11.77 |
|
| (E) Others |
23.17 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
110 |
133 |
118 |
84 |
114 |
229 |
199 |
400 |
568 |
265 |
204 |
245 |
292 |
237 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
17% |
17% |
15% |
14% |
15% |
13% |
15% |
36% |
13% |
16% |
9% |
10% |
11% |
8% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
16.7 |
12.5 |
10.1 |
5.1 |
5.9 |
10.7 |
8.0 |
4.3 |
15.2 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
|
| EVTI |
11.4 |
11.6 |
8.8 |
8.4 |
8.4 |
9.1 |
9.0 |
7.4 |
9.8 |
8.8 |
8.6 |
8.6 |
8.7 |
8.5 |
|
| EVTIFM |
16.7 |
12.5 |
10.1 |
5.1 |
5.9 |
10.7 |
8.0 |
4.3 |
15.2 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
10.3 |
9.6 |
9.4 |
9.9 |
11.0 |
10.5 |
12.5 |
10.2 |
10.5 |
11.6 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
11.7 |
11.4 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
1% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-25% |
-28% |
-13% |
-30% |
-4% |
-7% |
-6% |
0% |
-6% |
-11% |
4% |
4% |
4% |
9% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
10,450.16 |
13,603.47 |
14,963.81 |
16,460.20 |
18,106.22 |
19,011.53 |
|
| EBITDA |
9,349.17 |
11,811.88 |
13,067.89 |
14,456.98 |
15,993.21 |
16,887.93 |
|
| EBIT |
9,321.54 |
11,775.91 |
13,022.39 |
14,408.60 |
15,941.77 |
16,833.24 |
|
| PBT |
1,756.62 |
2,521.81 |
1,489.14 |
1,788.23 |
2,134.21 |
1,729.29 |
|
| NPAT |
1,172.13 |
1,664.65 |
982.98 |
1,180.41 |
1,408.79 |
1,141.51 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
15.20 |
5.00 |
6.50 |
6.50 |
6.50 |
6.50 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.03 |
0.81 |
0.58 |
0.63 |
0.69 |
0.52 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
10.53 |
11.64 |
11.76 |
11.77 |
11.70 |
11.37 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.13 |
0.16 |
0.09 |
0.10 |
0.11 |
0.08 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
9.78 |
8.78 |
8.60 |
8.64 |
8.68 |
8.54 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
16.49 |
15.41 |
15.02 |
15.01 |
14.98 |
14.66 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
568.06 |
265.25 |
203.65 |
244.60 |
291.95 |
236.60 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
2,521.81 |
1,489.14 |
1,788.23 |
2,134.21 |
1,729.29 |
|
| Interest |
9,254.10 |
11,533.25 |
12,620.37 |
13,807.56 |
15,103.94 |
|
| Depreciation |
35.97 |
45.50 |
48.38 |
51.44 |
54.69 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
11,811.88 |
13,067.89 |
14,456.98 |
15,993.21 |
16,887.93 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
7,797.02 |
8,626.11 |
9,543.05 |
10,557.12 |
11,147.72 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
185,809.51 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
7,797.02 |
8,626.11 |
9,543.05 |
10,557.12 |
196,957.23 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
171,005.77 |
|
| Debt |
163,171.70 |
|
| Value of Equity |
7,834.07 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
249.70 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
6,676 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
92,612 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
2.37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
7,565 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
2,517 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
5,048 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
92,612 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
29% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
93% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
7% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
7% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
11,147.72 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
0.3% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
185,809.51 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
H D F C |
1,989.00 |
341,662 |
412.17 |
19.60 |
9.65 |
13.99 |
21.16 |
4.83 |
34.10 |
5.21 |
0.98 |
14.20 |
-160.32 |
45,028 |
- |
139 |
13.05 |
24.91 |
12.65 |
24.71 |
| 2 |
Indiabulls Hous. |
715.60 |
30,534 |
362.53 |
38.24 |
11.43 |
7.12 |
10.62 |
1.97 |
7.14 |
8.21 |
5.73 |
20.86 |
-206.53 |
17,021 |
16.87 |
40 |
2.32 |
26.13 |
-1.31 |
21.43 |
| 3 |
LIC Housing Fin. |
466.35 |
23,534 |
251.48 |
22.66 |
9.60 |
9.81 |
13.81 |
1.85 |
10.84 |
11.45 |
1.46 |
18.75 |
-118.98 |
16,810 |
40.31 |
41 |
3.73 |
11.92 |
0.92 |
11.54 |
| 4 |
Dewan Hsg. Fin. |
212.75 |
6,676 |
331.44 |
25.42 |
9.78 |
6.30 |
10.42 |
0.64 |
4.47 |
10.53 |
2.58 |
21.68 |
-212.96 |
14,077 |
39.21 |
15 |
11.46 |
33.78 |
0.86 |
52.46 |
| 5 |
H U D C O |
43.00 |
8,608 |
52.80 |
14.45 |
8.06 |
8.96 |
15.01 |
0.81 |
8.59 |
3.68 |
1.28 |
12.46 |
-509.98 |
4,932 |
89.81 |
31 |
-23.80 |
27.67 |
-15.37 |
6.24 |
| 6 |
PNB Housing |
906.50 |
15,181 |
376.60 |
16.44 |
9.48 |
9.25 |
15.29 |
2.41 |
17.23 |
8.57 |
0.99 |
13.47 |
-292.74 |
6,922 |
32.79 |
73 |
7.09 |
35.79 |
-11.40 |
9.58 |
Comments
Post a Comment