|
Quantamental
Equity Research on DAI-ICHI KARKARIA LTD | Release: 04 Dec 2018 18:11:17
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:REMSONSIND and BSE CODE:530919 |
| Last Close: |
INR 216.9 |
| Fair Value: |
INR -104.25 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR -99.25 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
161.59 |
| Industry: |
Auto Parts & Equipment |
| Rating: |
STRONG SELL |
| Downside: |
-146% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Dai-ichi Karkaria is engaged in the development and manufacture
of specialty chemicals for various applications. The Company's geographical
segments include Outside India and Within India. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
18% |
139% |
200% |
|
| EBIT % |
-40% |
-15% |
177% |
|
| Earnings % |
-43% |
-19% |
173% |
|
| Book Value
% |
7% |
60% |
118% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
-15% |
123% |
960% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
63.79 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.00 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
18.98 |
|
| (E) Others |
17.23 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
48 |
46 |
44 |
41 |
61 |
195 |
397 |
513 |
435 |
-99 |
-89 |
-84 |
-82 |
-84 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
7% |
7% |
5% |
7% |
17% |
17% |
16% |
16% |
9% |
-5% |
-5% |
-4% |
-5% |
-5% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
9.1 |
8.3 |
9.8 |
7.0 |
3.6 |
9.8 |
19.0 |
18.3 |
27.0 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
|
| EVTI |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
-0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
|
| EVTIFM |
9.1 |
8.3 |
9.8 |
7.0 |
3.6 |
9.8 |
19.0 |
18.3 |
27.0 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
4% |
4% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
763% |
133% |
-51% |
-28% |
108% |
17% |
2% |
-1% |
-23% |
-28% |
-15% |
-1% |
7% |
24% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
149.11 |
118.36 |
101.54 |
93.61 |
92.30 |
96.91 |
|
| EBITDA |
20.98 |
-6.08 |
-5.22 |
-4.81 |
-4.74 |
-4.98 |
|
| EBIT |
16.51 |
-9.63 |
-8.67 |
-8.18 |
-8.02 |
-8.17 |
|
| PBT |
16.37 |
-9.77 |
-8.79 |
-8.29 |
-8.13 |
-8.28 |
|
| NPAT |
11.98 |
-6.45 |
-5.81 |
-5.47 |
-5.37 |
-5.47 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
27.04 |
11.47 |
11.47 |
11.47 |
11.47 |
11.47 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.33 |
-0.55 |
-0.52 |
-0.51 |
-0.52 |
-0.55 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.55 |
0.50 |
0.48 |
0.48 |
0.50 |
0.56 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.09 |
-0.05 |
-0.05 |
-0.04 |
-0.05 |
-0.05 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
2.48 |
-0.24 |
-0.27 |
-0.27 |
-0.25 |
-0.22 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
44.40 |
6.62 |
6.86 |
6.68 |
6.39 |
5.63 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
434.74 |
-99.25 |
-89.30 |
-84.10 |
-82.45 |
-83.95 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
- 9.77 |
- 8.79 |
- 8.29 |
- 8.13 |
- 8.28 |
|
| Interest |
0.14 |
0.12 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
|
| Depreciation |
3.55 |
3.46 |
3.37 |
3.28 |
3.19 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
- 6.08 |
- 5.22 |
- 4.81 |
- 4.74 |
- 4.98 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
- 4.01 |
- 3.44 |
- 3.17 |
- 3.13 |
- 3.29 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
- 2.46 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
- 4.01 |
- 3.44 |
- 3.17 |
- 3.13 |
- 5.74 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
-14.07 |
|
| Debt |
63.59 |
|
| Value of Equity |
-77.67 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
-104.25 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
162 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
77 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.01 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
77 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
17% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
32% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
68% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
11% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
-3.29 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
-4.0% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
- 2.46 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Tata Chemicals |
696.75 |
17,750 |
444.96 |
17.51 |
11.38 |
1.32 |
12.27 |
1.57 |
6.68 |
0.55 |
3.16 |
13.48 |
11.02 |
12,485 |
30.63 |
71 |
7.88 |
10.05 |
56.26 |
-2.42 |
| 2 |
Pidilite Inds. |
1,151.80 |
58,506 |
70.36 |
31.87 |
37.64 |
8.01 |
67.88 |
16.37 |
61.03 |
0.03 |
0.52 |
21.78 |
31.33 |
7,140 |
69.74 |
287 |
-4.18 |
14.88 |
-3.99 |
-8.60 |
| 3 |
Guj Fluorochem |
898.55 |
9,875 |
483.80 |
57.40 |
7.94 |
1.84 |
4.81 |
1.86 |
13.27 |
0.42 |
0.39 |
48.69 |
36.74 |
6,076 |
68.34 |
23 |
8.80 |
69.00 |
218.28 |
740.32 |
| 4 |
Castrol India |
153.45 |
15,178 |
10.80 |
67.70 |
105.28 |
3.81 |
26.79 |
14.21 |
21.90 |
- |
4.56 |
-0.06 |
-0.06 |
3,782 |
51.00 |
115 |
-8.88 |
7.60 |
-8.40 |
-5.76 |
| 5 |
Godrej Inds. |
548.10 |
18,437 |
124.72 |
24.77 |
9.33 |
1.79 |
101.36 |
4.39 |
29.78 |
1.76 |
0.32 |
21.31 |
27.28 |
11,528 |
74.72 |
-269 |
-13.43 |
14.76 |
47.00 |
58.82 |
| 6 |
Dai-ichi Karkari |
216.90 |
162 |
175.58 |
-14.97 |
9.17 |
2.51 |
-14.66 |
1.24 |
159.99 |
0.55 |
1.15 |
-12.64 |
-17.97 |
84 |
63.79 |
-33 |
-25.96 |
-34.14 |
268.55 |
-246.95 |
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