CAN FIN HOMES LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on CAN FIN HOMES LTD | Release: 03 Dec 2018 16:06:42 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:CANFINHOME and BSE CODE:511196
Last Close:  INR 269.85
Fair Value:  INR 367.85
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 301.1
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  3593.16
Industry:  Housing Finance 
Rating:  STRONG BUY
Upside:  36%
Company Profile
Can Fin Homes is among Indias leading and fastest growing housing finance companies. They aspire to provide the very best of financial assistance to peoples housing requirements.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 14% 90% 289%  
EBIT % 15% 92% 302%  
Earnings % 28% 250% 458%  
Book Value %  25% 75% 243%  
Stock Total Return %  -10% 215% 1546%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 29.99  
(B) FII/FPI 0.00  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 3.88  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 24.50  
(E) Others 41.63  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 16 22 21 27 42 140 240 492 440 301 328 353 375 394  
Return on Equity 14% 14% 13% 14% 17% 11% 18% 22% 22% 21% 19% 17% 16% 14%  
Price to Earning  4.2 5.4 5.0 5.1 5.6 21.6 20.4 27.8 19.4 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8  
EVTI 9.3 9.1 8.6 9.7 9.8 11.3 11.7 13.6 12.8 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8  
EVTIFM 4.2 5.4 5.0 5.1 5.6 21.6 20.4 27.8 19.4 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8  
Price to Book Value 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 2.4 3.6 6.1 4.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7  
Debt to Equity  6.8 6.1 6.6 9.0 11.6 9.6 10.8 11.0 10.3 9.2 8.3 7.5 6.7 6.1  
Dividend Yield 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%  
Cash Flow to Firm 0% 9% -6% -24% -21% -19% -9% -8% -3% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       1,544.21       1,707.13       1,863.55       2,008.44       2,136.73       2,243.57  
EBITDA       1,442.15       1,639.36       1,789.57       1,928.71       2,051.91       2,154.51  
EBIT       1,439.06       1,635.95       1,787.01       1,927.07       2,050.85       2,153.83  
PBT          458.05          515.69          562.17          605.03          642.77          674.56  
NPAT          301.77          340.42          371.10          399.39          424.31          445.29  
Price to Earning             19.43            11.78            11.78            11.78            11.78            11.78  
Price to Book Value              4.35              2.43              2.20              2.01              1.83              1.68  
Debt to Equity             10.34              9.21              8.28              7.47              6.75              6.09  
Return on Equity              0.22              0.21              0.19              0.17              0.16              0.14  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)            12.78            11.24            11.13            11.03            10.92            10.80  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            20.92            17.85            17.67            17.50            17.31            17.12  
Price or Est. Share Prices          440.01          301.10          328.25          353.30          375.35          393.95  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          515.69          562.17          605.03          642.77          674.56  
Interest       1,120.26       1,224.85       1,322.04       1,408.08       1,479.27  
Depreciation              3.42              2.56              1.64              1.06              0.68  
Cash Flow Before Tax       1,639.36       1,789.57       1,928.71       2,051.91       2,154.51  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax       1,082.14       1,181.30       1,273.14       1,354.47       1,422.19  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                    -       28,491.90  
Total Cash Flow       1,082.14       1,181.30       1,273.14       1,354.47     29,914.09  
Present Value of Cash Flow     23,939.01  
Debt     19,041.50  
Value of Equity       4,897.51  
Fair Value Per Share          367.85  
Equity            3,593
Debt          13,925
Beta Take from Reuters 1.74
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 8%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 9%
Interest Paid               981
Tax Benefit               335
Interest Net of Tax               646
Debt          13,925
Cost of Debt 5%
Cost of Equity 23%
Debt Weight 79%
Equity Weight 21%
WACC 8%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E       1,422.19
Growth 3.0%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow     28,491.90
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  LIC Housing Fin.           466.35          23,534          251.48            22.66              9.60              9.81            13.81              1.85            10.84            11.45              1.46            18.75        -118.98          16,810            40.31                 41              3.73            11.92              0.92            11.54
   2  Dewan Hsg. Fin.           212.75            6,676          331.44            25.42              9.78              6.30            10.42              0.64              4.47            10.53              2.58            21.68        -212.96          14,077            39.21                 15            11.46            33.78              0.86            52.46
   3  H U D C O             43.00            8,608            52.80            14.45              8.06              8.96            15.01              0.81              8.59              3.68              1.28            12.46        -509.98            4,932            89.81                 31          -23.80            27.67          -15.37              6.24
   4  PNB Housing           906.50          15,181          376.60            16.44              9.48              9.25            15.29              2.41            17.23              8.57              0.99            13.47        -292.74            6,922            32.79                 73              7.09            35.79          -11.40              9.58
   5  GRUH Finance           296.70          21,730            22.69            37.91            10.77            18.54            28.29            13.08            50.15            10.23              0.56            25.30        -137.02            1,922            57.86               206              6.27            15.45            -8.36            20.05
   6  Can Fin Homes           269.85            3,593          110.06            28.42            10.20            10.34            17.13              2.45            11.68            10.34              0.74            25.91        -109.73            1,692            29.99                 48              4.58            11.27              2.10              7.56

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