|
Quantamental
Equity Research on BLACK ROSE INDUSTRIES LTD | Release: 04 Dec 2018 18:10:05
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:REMSONSIND and BSE CODE:530919 |
| Last Close: |
INR 45.75 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 41.05 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 84.55 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
233.33 |
| Industry: |
Auto Parts & Equipment |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
85% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Black Rose Industries is primarily in the business of chemical
distribution and chemical manufacturing, as well as textile manufacturing and
renewable energy generation. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
11% |
10% |
83% |
|
| EBIT % |
55% |
329% |
331% |
|
| Earnings % |
125% |
1929% |
585% |
|
| Book Value
% |
37% |
80% |
152% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
81% |
184% |
894% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
75.00 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.10 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.10 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
13.51 |
|
| (E) Others |
11.29 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
3 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
17 |
16 |
27 |
49 |
85 |
98 |
116 |
135 |
152 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
35% |
23% |
2% |
12% |
-15% |
3% |
8% |
20% |
32% |
21% |
20% |
19% |
19% |
18% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
1.7 |
4.3 |
108.7 |
11.7 |
-8.6 |
160.2 |
53.2 |
27.8 |
22.4 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
|
| EVTI |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
|
| EVTIFM |
1.7 |
4.3 |
108.7 |
11.7 |
-8.6 |
160.2 |
53.2 |
27.8 |
22.4 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
0.6 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
7.2 |
10.0 |
9.4 |
9.1 |
8.7 |
8.2 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-22% |
-14% |
-5% |
6% |
-33% |
12% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
184.97 |
204.64 |
223.52 |
240.99 |
256.43 |
269.25 |
|
| EBITDA |
21.78 |
20.71 |
22.62 |
24.39 |
25.95 |
27.25 |
|
| EBIT |
19.37 |
18.04 |
19.88 |
21.86 |
23.62 |
25.10 |
|
| PBT |
15.31 |
13.98 |
16.20 |
19.18 |
22.23 |
25.10 |
|
| NPAT |
11.16 |
9.23 |
10.69 |
12.66 |
14.68 |
16.57 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
22.42 |
46.70 |
46.70 |
46.70 |
46.70 |
46.70 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
7.21 |
9.96 |
9.38 |
9.10 |
8.72 |
8.23 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.02 |
0.74 |
0.44 |
0.19 |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.32 |
0.21 |
0.20 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.18 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.54 |
2.26 |
2.33 |
2.50 |
2.66 |
2.81 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
20.93 |
40.39 |
41.38 |
43.43 |
45.61 |
47.55 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
49.07 |
84.55 |
98.00 |
116.05 |
134.55 |
151.90 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
13.98 |
16.20 |
19.18 |
22.23 |
25.10 |
|
| Interest |
4.06 |
3.68 |
2.68 |
1.39 |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
2.67 |
2.74 |
2.53 |
2.33 |
2.15 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
20.71 |
22.62 |
24.39 |
25.95 |
27.25 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
13.67 |
14.93 |
16.10 |
17.13 |
17.99 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
275.50 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
13.67 |
14.93 |
16.10 |
17.13 |
293.49 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
209.28 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
209.28 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
41.05 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
233 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
35 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
0.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
35 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
13% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
13% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
87% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
12% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
17.99 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
5.5% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
275.50 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Bombay Dyeing |
97.60 |
2,016 |
-41.53 |
428.47 |
19.46 |
1.09 |
2.60 |
- |
6.36 |
4.27 |
1.02 |
171.21 |
212.17 |
3,340 |
53.68 |
8 |
109.49 |
20.63 |
-362.73 |
2,853.48 |
| 2 |
Siyaram Silk |
353.65 |
1,658 |
149.74 |
17.79 |
19.36 |
1.18 |
17.86 |
2.36 |
14.84 |
0.84 |
1.19 |
14.65 |
13.00 |
1,840 |
67.07 |
72 |
42.40 |
8.53 |
146.62 |
-11.03 |
| 3 |
Ganesha Ecosphe. |
259.40 |
566 |
174.68 |
26.41 |
16.75 |
0.72 |
12.62 |
1.49 |
13.14 |
0.75 |
0.51 |
24.25 |
18.91 |
1,053 |
29.40 |
44 |
10.33 |
55.47 |
28.45 |
85.44 |
| 4 |
Orbit Exports |
128.70 |
364 |
55.27 |
21.44 |
24.62 |
2.57 |
15.26 |
2.33 |
12.96 |
0.10 |
- |
21.44 |
21.51 |
141 |
62.99 |
65 |
-16.69 |
6.27 |
-41.43 |
11.36 |
| 5 |
Faze Three |
54.65 |
133 |
73.17 |
19.93 |
10.25 |
0.69 |
8.87 |
0.75 |
6.76 |
0.64 |
0.91 |
18.49 |
11.39 |
294 |
45.75 |
32 |
20.60 |
27.22 |
56.61 |
95.76 |
| 6 |
Black Rose Indus |
45.75 |
233 |
7.65 |
44.41 |
28.15 |
1.21 |
18.84 |
5.98 |
18.86 |
1.02 |
0.33 |
41.35 |
44.23 |
219 |
75.00 |
79 |
24.97 |
58.24 |
50.00 |
32.62 |
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