BAYER CROPSCIENCE LTD - Quantamental Equity Research Report

Quantamental Equity Research on BAYER CROPSCIENCE LTD | Release: 06 Dec 2018 11:33:20 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:BAYERCROP and BSE CODE:506285
Last Close:  INR 4295.5
Fair Value:  INR 1035.1
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 3573.75
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  14747.99
Industry:  Agrochemicals
Rating:  SELL
Downside:  -17%
Company Profile
Bayer CropScience is engaged in Agri Care business which primarily includes manufacture, sale and distribution of insecticides, fungicides, herbicide and various other agrochemical products, and sale and distribution of hybrid seeds.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % -3% -9% 4%  
EBIT % -9% -28% -74%  
Earnings % 3% -22% -74%  
Book Value %  -14% -13% -8%  
Stock Total Return %  11% 23% 300%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 68.69  
(B) FII/FPI 3.94  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 15.24  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 6.92  
(E) Others 5.21  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 717 942 784 1124 1466 3667 3767 4041 4497 3574 3646 3763 3927 4144  
Return on Equity 23% 20% 18% 60% 17% 19% 17% 14% 17% 20% 17% 16% 14% 14%  
Price to Earning  22.3 28.3 22.3 3.8 18.5 35.1 42.3 49.1 51.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7  
EVTI 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.6 3.6 4.6 5.0 5.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0  
EVTIFM 22.3 28.3 22.3 3.8 18.5 35.1 42.3 49.1 51.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7  
Price to Book Value 5.1 5.5 3.9 2.3 3.1 6.6 7.2 6.9 8.7 5.8 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.0  
Debt to Equity  0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
Dividend Yield 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%  
Cash Flow to Firm 2% 1% 6% 8% 11% 2% 5% 1% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       2,709.90       2,718.18       2,758.39       2,831.57       2,939.92       3,086.91  
EBITDA          448.20          658.94          668.69          686.43          712.69          748.33  
EBIT          415.10          625.74          638.46          658.91          687.64          725.52  
PBT          403.80          625.74          638.46          658.91          687.64          725.52  
NPAT          300.10          413.05          421.45          434.95          453.91          478.92  
Price to Earning             51.45            29.71            29.71            29.71            29.71            29.71  
Price to Book Value              8.68              5.82              5.12              4.63              4.28              4.03  
Debt to Equity                   -                    -                    -                    -                    -                    -    
Return on Equity              0.17              0.20              0.17              0.16              0.14              0.14  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              5.62              4.29              4.19              4.11              4.03              3.97  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            57.25            33.60            32.66            31.82            31.09            30.48  
Price or Est. Share Prices       4,497.11       3,573.75       3,646.45       3,763.25       3,927.35       4,143.70  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          625.74          638.46          658.91          687.64          725.52  
Interest                  -                    -                    -                    -                    -    
Depreciation            33.20            30.23            27.52            25.05            22.81  
Cash Flow Before Tax          658.94          668.69          686.43          712.69          748.33  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          434.97          441.40          453.11          470.45          493.97  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                      -         3,611.90  
Total Cash Flow          434.97          441.40          453.11          470.45       4,105.87  
Present Value of Cash Flow       3,553.83  
Debt                  -    
Value of Equity       3,553.83  
Fair Value Per Share       1,035.10  
Equity          14,748
Debt                   0
Beta Take from Reuters 0.6
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 8%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 9%
Interest Paid                 11
Tax Benefit                   3
Interest Net of Tax                   8
Debt                   0
Cost of Debt 0%
Cost of Equity 13%
Debt Weight 0%
Equity Weight 100%
WACC 13%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E          493.97
Growth 2.5%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow       3,611.90
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  Bayer Crop Sci.        4,295.50          14,748          570.58            42.45            21.64              3.22            26.25              7.53            51.26                  -                0.42            33.72            18.63            4,456            68.69               111            32.74           -10.38             -3.06           -25.13
   2  Monsanto India        2,737.85            4,726          402.20            17.67            29.56              8.24            54.85              6.81            22.88                  -                1.10            12.11            81.54               534            81.84               249           -50.75            33.71           -63.51          477.00
   3  Excel Crop Care        3,269.95            3,597          536.56            42.60            25.52              2.20            21.70              6.09            38.83              0.02              0.27            37.55            29.04            1,637            64.97                 87              2.26              6.23              8.52             -7.46
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