|
Quantamental
Equity Research on AUROBINDO PHARMA LTD | Release: 16 Dec 2018 22:41:45
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:AUROPHARMA and BSE CODE:524804 |
Last Close: |
INR 726.2 |
Fair Value: |
INR 621.15 |
Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 667.65 |
Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
42548.61 |
Industry: |
Pharmaceuticals |
Rating: |
NOT RATED |
Downside: |
-8% |
Company Profile |
|
|
Aurobindo Pharma is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of
active pharmaceutical ingredients, generic pharmaceuticals and related
services. |
Growth Per Share |
|
|
Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
Revenue % |
10% |
66% |
190% |
|
EBIT % |
6% |
43% |
418% |
|
Earnings % |
5% |
54% |
725% |
|
Book Value
% |
25% |
127% |
348% |
|
Stock Total
Return % |
-5% |
-6% |
610% |
|
|
Share holding
pattern |
Particulars |
%age |
|
(A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
51.87 |
|
(B) FII/FPI |
19.30 |
|
(C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
14.85 |
|
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
6.74 |
|
(E) Others |
7.24 |
|
Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
Price |
94 |
98 |
62 |
87 |
279 |
658 |
764 |
648 |
617 |
668 |
744 |
835 |
917 |
980 |
|
Return on
Equity |
31% |
23% |
-5% |
11% |
31% |
31% |
28% |
25% |
21% |
14% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
|
Price to
Earning |
4.7 |
5.1 |
-14.5 |
8.6 |
6.9 |
12.2 |
22.1 |
16.5 |
14.9 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
|
EVTI |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
3.6 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
|
EVTIFM |
4.7 |
5.1 |
-14.5 |
8.6 |
6.9 |
12.2 |
22.1 |
16.5 |
14.9 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
20.9 |
|
Price to Book
Value |
1.4 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
6.1 |
4.0 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
|
Debt to
Equity |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Dividend Yield |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
Cash Flow to
Firm |
16% |
0% |
-6% |
2% |
4% |
1% |
1% |
7% |
-1% |
4% |
6% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
|
|
Detailed Estimates |
Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
Sales |
16,463.03 |
18,262.64 |
19,988.17 |
21,580.35 |
22,979.37 |
24,128.34 |
|
EBITDA |
3,876.87 |
3,532.41 |
3,866.17 |
4,174.14 |
4,444.74 |
4,666.98 |
|
EBIT |
3,318.90 |
2,913.45 |
3,226.83 |
3,583.62 |
3,899.33 |
4,163.22 |
|
PBT |
3,241.18 |
2,835.73 |
3,159.04 |
3,544.39 |
3,892.78 |
4,163.22 |
|
NPAT |
2,423.17 |
1,872.07 |
2,085.51 |
2,339.90 |
2,569.90 |
2,748.44 |
|
Price to
Earning |
14.91 |
20.89 |
20.89 |
20.89 |
20.89 |
20.89 |
|
Price to Book
Value |
3.09 |
2.91 |
2.83 |
2.78 |
2.69 |
2.54 |
|
Debt to
Equity |
0.41 |
0.31 |
0.16 |
0.02 |
- |
- |
|
Return on
Equity |
0.21 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.13 |
0.12 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
2.45 |
2.34 |
2.28 |
2.26 |
2.23 |
2.18 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
16.97 |
23.28 |
22.34 |
21.58 |
20.86 |
19.99 |
|
Price or Est.
Share Prices |
616.79 |
667.65 |
743.80 |
834.55 |
916.60 |
980.30 |
|
|
DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
PBT |
2,835.73 |
3,159.04 |
3,544.39 |
3,892.78 |
4,163.22 |
|
Interest |
77.72 |
67.78 |
39.24 |
6.54 |
- |
|
Depreciation |
618.96 |
639.35 |
590.51 |
545.41 |
503.75 |
|
Cash Flow
Before Tax |
3,532.41 |
3,866.17 |
4,174.14 |
4,444.74 |
4,666.98 |
|
Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
Cash Flow
After Tax |
2,331.75 |
2,552.06 |
2,755.35 |
2,933.97 |
3,080.67 |
|
Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
47,694.88 |
|
Total Cash
Flow |
2,331.75 |
2,552.06 |
2,755.35 |
2,933.97 |
50,775.55 |
|
Present Value of
Cash Flow |
36,390.81 |
|
Debt |
- |
|
Value of Equity |
36,390.81 |
|
Fair Value Per
Share |
621.15 |
|
|
Equity |
|
|
|
|
42,549 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
4,770 |
|
|
Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
0.84 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
78 |
|
Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
58 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
4,770 |
|
Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
1% |
|
Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
13% |
|
Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
10% |
|
Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
90% |
|
WACC |
|
|
|
|
12% |
|
|
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
3,080.67 |
|
Growth |
|
|
|
|
5.6% |
|
Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
47,694.88 |
|
|
Peer Comparision |
# |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
Unpledged
Prom Hold % |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
1 |
Piramal Enterp. |
2,137.50 |
39,193 |
1,407.23 |
10.23 |
8.85 |
4.07 |
11.13 |
1.52 |
7.66 |
2.00 |
1.15 |
9.33 |
32.26 |
12,802 |
50.66 |
92 |
8.32 |
23.99 |
-797.98 |
25.31 |
2,816.24 |
2 |
Sun Pharma.Inds. |
420.65 |
1,00,928 |
170.98 |
-1.35 |
10.41 |
3.88 |
42.67 |
2.46 |
27.49 |
0.27 |
0.48 |
-1.05 |
-1.08 |
24,298 |
51.79 |
134 |
-3.97 |
4.32 |
-109.80 |
-11.50 |
197.51 |
3 |
Unichem Labs. |
190.30 |
1,339 |
385.79 |
1.90 |
-6.08 |
-0.28 |
3.99 |
0.49 |
0.53 |
- |
2.63 |
1.88 |
2.88 |
1,114 |
50.67 |
-77 |
22.09 |
51.14 |
-173.66 |
-66.80 |
1,545.61 |
4 |
Aurobindo Pharma |
726.20 |
42,549 |
221.43 |
26.14 |
22.85 |
2.41 |
17.89 |
3.28 |
19.24 |
0.41 |
0.34 |
24.56 |
23.00 |
19,004 |
50.73 |
70 |
11.79 |
7.11 |
34.19 |
-19.06 |
431.66 |
5 |
Cadila Health. |
346.45 |
35,468 |
87.03 |
23.21 |
18.28 |
3.24 |
23.17 |
3.98 |
17.63 |
0.62 |
1.01 |
18.53 |
20.25 |
11,966 |
74.79 |
92 |
2.33 |
-8.09 |
-9.34 |
-17.05 |
196.21 |
6 |
Dr Reddy's Labs |
2,591.70 |
43,034 |
790.49 |
21.15 |
7.75 |
2.89 |
27.00 |
3.28 |
27.42 |
0.40 |
0.77 |
13.73 |
13.90 |
15,783 |
26.77 |
110 |
2.17 |
7.24 |
8.86 |
69.71 |
1,296.79 |
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