ALKYL AMINES CHEMICALS LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on ALKYL AMINES CHEMICALS LTD | Release: 11 Dec 2018 12:53:18 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:ALKYLAMINE and BSE CODE:506767
Last Close:  INR 705.2
Fair Value:  INR 844.35
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 572.35
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  1438.35
Industry:  Specialty Chemicals
Rating:  BUY
Upside:  20%
Company Profile
Alkyl Amines Chemicals Limited is engaged in the business of specialty chemicals. The Company is involved in the manufacture of organic and inorganic chemical compounds.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 23% 58% 92%  
EBIT % 27% 35% 113%  
Earnings % 28% 42% 169%  
Book Value %  21% 70% 178%  
Stock Total Return %  35% 95% 753%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 74.19  
(B) FII/FPI 1.34  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 0.09  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 15.75  
(E) Others 8.63  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 41 43 45 75 141 329 316 476 644 572 739 897 1019 1078  
Return on Equity 14% 14% 19% 22% 31% 26% 25% 21% 22% 28% 28% 27% 25% 22%  
Price to Earning  8.4 8.4 5.4 6.4 6.7 14.8 12.9 19.3 20.4 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2  
EVTI 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4  
EVTIFM 8.4 8.4 5.4 6.4 6.7 14.8 12.9 19.3 20.4 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2  
Price to Book Value 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.8 3.2 4.0 4.4 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.5  
Debt to Equity  1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1  
Dividend Yield 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%  
Cash Flow to Firm 30% 9% 14% 5% 13% 7% 10% 2% -1% 0% 2% 5% 8% 14%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales          616.18          855.30       1,114.93       1,359.14       1,541.97       1,619.06  
EBITDA          119.59          187.82          244.83          298.46          338.60          355.53  
EBIT          103.92          166.07          215.90          262.43          296.79          310.53  
PBT            95.77          157.92          203.91          247.54          281.11          297.26  
NPAT            64.29          104.24          134.60          163.40          185.56          196.22  
Price to Earning             20.42            11.20            11.20            11.20            11.20            11.20  
Price to Book Value              4.42              3.11              3.16              3.05              2.81              2.48  
Debt to Equity               0.61              0.71              0.69              0.58              0.40              0.13  
Return on Equity              0.22              0.28              0.28              0.27              0.25              0.22  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              2.41              1.67              1.64              1.60              1.53              1.42  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            22.13            13.52            13.34            13.01            12.53            11.67  
Price or Est. Share Prices          643.58          572.35          739.10          897.25       1,018.95       1,077.55  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          157.92          203.91          247.54          281.11          297.26  
Interest              8.15            11.99            14.89            15.68            13.26  
Depreciation            21.75            28.93            36.02            41.81            45.00  
Cash Flow Before Tax          187.82          244.83          298.46          338.60          355.53  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          123.98          161.61          197.01          223.51          234.69  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                    -         3,006.15  
Total Cash Flow          123.98          161.61          197.01          223.51       3,240.84  
Present Value of Cash Flow       1,837.52  
Debt          115.37  
Value of Equity       1,722.15  
Fair Value Per Share          844.35  
Equity            1,438
Debt               181
Beta Take from Reuters 1.8
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 7%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 7%
Interest Paid                   8
Tax Benefit                   3
Interest Net of Tax                   5
Debt               181
Cost of Debt 3%
Cost of Equity 20%
Debt Weight 11%
Equity Weight 89%
WACC 19%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E          234.69
Growth 9.3%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow       3,006.15
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income Unpledged Prom Hold % PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  Tata Chemicals           657.05          16,739          444.96            13.74            11.38              1.24            15.84              1.48              6.97              0.55              3.35            10.58              8.47          12,485            30.63               104              7.88            10.05            56.20            -1.77          982.35
   2  Pidilite Inds.        1,123.05          57,045            70.36            31.96            37.64              7.81            66.00            15.96            59.78              0.03              0.53            21.84            31.43            7,140            69.74               280            -4.18            14.88            -2.95            -8.05          172.24
   3  Guj Fluorochem           892.40            9,807          483.80            56.54              7.94              1.83              4.83              1.84            13.64              0.42              0.39            47.96            36.07            6,076            68.34                 23              8.80            69.00          269.23          584.88          854.58
   4  Castrol India           143.70          14,214            10.80            67.70          105.28              3.55            25.00            13.31            20.51                 -                4.87            -0.06            -0.06            3,782            51.00               108            -8.88              7.60            -8.40            -5.76            41.27
   5  Godrej Inds.           532.75          17,921          124.72            17.65              9.33              1.75        -610.38              4.27            40.79              1.76              0.33            15.19            18.13          11,528            74.72             -147          -13.43            14.76            72.24            72.13          192.97
   6  Alkyl Amines           705.20            1,438          160.10            46.67            24.83              1.84            14.30              4.40            17.46              0.61              0.99            36.30            30.88               876            74.19                 56            22.45            57.95            49.52            97.02          381.39

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