|
Quantamental
Equity Research on AAVAS FINANCIERS LTD | Release: 02 Dec 2018 12:59:16
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:AAVAS and BSE CODE:541988 |
| Last Close: |
INR 769.35 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 764.65 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 782.65 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
6009.23 |
| Industry: |
Housing Finance |
| Rating: |
NEUTRAL |
| Upside: |
2% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| AAVAS is primarily engaged in the business of providing housing
loan to customers belonging to low and middle income segment in semi-urban
and rural areas. These are credit worthy customers who may or may not have
the income proof documents like IT return, salary slip and hence are
financially excluded by other large housing finance companies and banks. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
50% |
|
|
|
| EBIT % |
44% |
|
|
|
| Earnings % |
63% |
|
|
|
| Book Value
% |
94% |
|
|
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
|
|
|
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
58.29 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
9.43 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
21.04 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
2.51 |
|
| (E) Others |
8.73 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
|
|
|
783 |
976 |
1119 |
1158 |
1060 |
|
| Return on Equity |
16% |
10% |
8% |
16% |
16% |
16% |
14% |
11% |
|
| Price to Earning |
|
|
|
30.3 |
30.3 |
30.3 |
30.3 |
30.3 |
|
| EVTI |
|
|
|
15.1 |
14.4 |
13.7 |
12.9 |
12.0 |
|
| EVTIFM |
|
|
|
30.3 |
30.3 |
30.3 |
30.3 |
30.3 |
|
| Price to Book Value |
|
|
|
4.7 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
3.4 |
|
| Debt to Equity |
7.1 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
|
|
|
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to Firm |
-102% |
-24% |
-36% |
-13% |
-10% |
-7% |
-2% |
4% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
456.34 |
682.48 |
944.67 |
1,202.36 |
1,396.41 |
1,466.23 |
|
| EBITDA |
336.43 |
503.15 |
696.45 |
886.42 |
1,029.48 |
1,080.96 |
|
| EBIT |
330.80 |
494.73 |
687.69 |
878.30 |
1,022.85 |
1,076.28 |
|
| PBT |
141.75 |
305.68 |
381.14 |
436.93 |
452.11 |
414.19 |
|
| NPAT |
92.93 |
201.78 |
251.59 |
288.42 |
298.44 |
273.41 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
- |
30.29 |
30.29 |
30.29 |
30.29 |
30.29 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
- |
4.70 |
4.91 |
4.75 |
4.23 |
3.43 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
2.36 |
3.24 |
3.91 |
4.26 |
4.25 |
3.89 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.08 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.14 |
0.11 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
5.65 |
15.07 |
14.44 |
13.75 |
12.95 |
12.01 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
11.95 |
31.70 |
30.24 |
28.68 |
26.95 |
24.94 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
- |
782.65 |
975.84 |
1,118.70 |
1,157.57 |
1,060.48 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
305.68 |
381.14 |
436.93 |
452.11 |
414.19 |
|
| Interest |
189.05 |
306.56 |
441.37 |
570.74 |
662.09 |
|
| Depreciation |
8.42 |
8.75 |
8.12 |
6.63 |
4.68 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
503.15 |
696.45 |
886.42 |
1,029.48 |
1,080.96 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
332.13 |
459.72 |
585.13 |
679.56 |
713.54 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
22,188.10 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
332.13 |
459.72 |
585.13 |
679.56 |
22,901.64 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
15,344.94 |
|
| Debt |
9,372.77 |
|
| Value of Equity |
5,972.17 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
764.65 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
6,009 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
2,596 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
0.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
189 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
65 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
124 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
2,596 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
13% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
30% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
70% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
11% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
713.54 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
7.1% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
22,188.10 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
H D F C |
1,989.00 |
341,662 |
412.17 |
19.60 |
9.65 |
13.99 |
21.16 |
4.83 |
34.10 |
5.21 |
0.98 |
14.20 |
-160.32 |
45,028 |
- |
139 |
13.05 |
24.91 |
12.65 |
24.71 |
| 2 |
Indiabulls Hous. |
715.60 |
30,534 |
362.53 |
38.24 |
11.43 |
7.12 |
10.62 |
1.97 |
7.14 |
8.21 |
5.73 |
20.86 |
-206.53 |
17,021 |
16.87 |
40 |
2.32 |
26.13 |
-1.31 |
21.43 |
| 3 |
LIC Housing Fin. |
466.35 |
23,534 |
251.48 |
22.66 |
9.60 |
9.81 |
13.81 |
1.85 |
10.84 |
11.45 |
1.46 |
18.75 |
-118.98 |
16,810 |
40.31 |
41 |
3.73 |
11.92 |
0.92 |
11.54 |
| 4 |
Dewan Hsg. Fin. |
212.75 |
6,676 |
331.44 |
25.42 |
9.78 |
6.30 |
10.42 |
0.64 |
4.47 |
10.53 |
2.58 |
21.68 |
-212.96 |
14,077 |
39.21 |
15 |
11.46 |
33.78 |
0.86 |
52.46 |
| 5 |
H U D C O |
43.00 |
8,608 |
52.80 |
14.45 |
8.06 |
8.96 |
15.01 |
0.81 |
8.59 |
3.68 |
1.28 |
12.46 |
-509.98 |
4,932 |
89.81 |
31 |
-23.80 |
27.67 |
-15.37 |
6.24 |
| 6 |
AAVAS Financiers |
769.35 |
6,009 |
175.93 |
- |
10.93 |
12.24 |
27.22 |
4.37 |
53.37 |
2.36 |
- |
- |
159.73 |
656 |
58.29 |
172 |
11.43 |
- |
17.33 |
- |
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