|
Quantamental
Equity Research on YUKEN INDIA LTD | Release: 30 Nov 2018 16:07:43 UTC+05:30
| Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:Not Listed and BSE CODE:522108 |
| Last Close: |
INR 532.4 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 146.55 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 962.4 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
638.88 |
| Industry: |
Auto Parts & Equipment |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
81% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Yuken India manufactures a wide range of vane pumps, piston
pumps, gear pumps, pressure controls, flow controls, directional controls,
modular control valves, servo valves, custom built/standard hydraulic systems
and chip compactor |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
18% |
37% |
58% |
|
| EBIT % |
454% |
328% |
153% |
|
| Earnings % |
1000% |
1090% |
332% |
|
| Book Value
% |
15% |
14% |
18% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
218% |
1353% |
3086% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
52.50 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
1.42 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
23.91 |
|
| (E) Others |
22.17 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
44 |
65 |
47 |
29 |
42 |
65 |
78 |
295 |
938 |
962 |
1162 |
1352 |
1516 |
1628 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
21% |
23% |
20% |
4% |
5% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
14% |
16% |
17% |
17% |
16% |
15% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
26.5 |
775.3 |
112.1 |
32.4 |
96.7 |
96.7 |
96.7 |
96.7 |
96.7 |
|
| EVTI |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
|
| EVTIFM |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
26.5 |
775.3 |
112.1 |
32.4 |
96.7 |
96.7 |
96.7 |
96.7 |
96.7 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
4.5 |
15.8 |
16.2 |
16.0 |
15.4 |
14.3 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
6% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
85% |
-4% |
2% |
42% |
17% |
2% |
-6% |
11% |
6% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
229.16 |
299.03 |
371.15 |
437.01 |
486.71 |
511.05 |
|
| EBITDA |
23.44 |
29.26 |
36.32 |
42.76 |
47.63 |
50.01 |
|
| EBIT |
20.35 |
25.23 |
31.33 |
36.90 |
41.11 |
43.18 |
|
| PBT |
13.21 |
18.09 |
21.84 |
25.41 |
28.49 |
30.60 |
|
| NPAT |
8.69 |
11.94 |
14.41 |
16.77 |
18.81 |
20.20 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
32.38 |
96.71 |
96.71 |
96.71 |
96.71 |
96.71 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
4.52 |
15.81 |
16.20 |
16.03 |
15.40 |
14.33 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.98 |
1.11 |
1.14 |
1.07 |
0.91 |
0.65 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.14 |
0.16 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.16 |
0.15 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.43 |
4.04 |
3.93 |
3.87 |
3.87 |
3.91 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
35.52 |
104.91 |
102.15 |
100.61 |
100.61 |
101.57 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
937.94 |
962.40 |
1,161.75 |
1,351.70 |
1,515.75 |
1,628.20 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
18.09 |
21.84 |
25.41 |
28.49 |
30.60 |
|
| Interest |
7.14 |
9.49 |
11.49 |
12.62 |
12.58 |
|
| Depreciation |
4.03 |
4.99 |
5.87 |
6.52 |
6.82 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
29.26 |
36.32 |
42.76 |
47.63 |
50.01 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
19.32 |
23.97 |
28.23 |
31.44 |
33.01 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
430.90 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
19.32 |
23.97 |
28.23 |
31.44 |
463.91 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
264.31 |
|
| Debt |
88.45 |
|
| Value of Equity |
175.86 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
146.55 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
639 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
61 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.34 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
7 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
61 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
9% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
91% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
19% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
33.01 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
9.3% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
430.90 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Hind.Aeronautics |
793.35 |
26,529 |
377.45 |
11.56 |
25.16 |
1.86 |
21.98 |
2.10 |
11.42 |
0.08 |
4.06 |
5.55 |
5.57 |
10,720 |
89.97 |
121 |
-7.24 |
9.66 |
-19.73 |
326.24 |
| 2 |
Bharat Dynamics |
277.20 |
5,081 |
113.64 |
6.58 |
37.40 |
1.78 |
226.32 |
2.44 |
11.22 |
- |
3.12 |
4.60 |
6.84 |
2,520 |
87.75 |
1,147 |
10.49 |
-31.14 |
-65.36 |
-66.22 |
| 3 |
Thermax |
1,042.95 |
12,427 |
235.36 |
13.87 |
15.52 |
1.86 |
63.67 |
4.43 |
45.24 |
0.09 |
0.58 |
9.83 |
21.39 |
5,853 |
61.98 |
316 |
37.90 |
38.19 |
53.79 |
29.50 |
| 4 |
Va Tech Wabag |
267.15 |
1,460 |
213.57 |
12.40 |
19.35 |
0.58 |
11.31 |
1.25 |
10.29 |
0.43 |
1.50 |
10.34 |
12.55 |
3,015 |
24.69 |
54 |
9.32 |
-15.18 |
100.49 |
-24.29 |
| 5 |
ISGEC Heavy |
5,333.55 |
3,922 |
1,744.59 |
11.68 |
13.54 |
0.81 |
43.05 |
3.06 |
33.86 |
0.07 |
0.30 |
10.52 |
9.26 |
4,071 |
62.27 |
234 |
40.82 |
57.33 |
-6.95 |
-37.39 |
| 6 |
Yuken India |
532.40 |
639 |
56.28 |
28.40 |
16.83 |
2.38 |
49.53 |
9.46 |
54.70 |
0.98 |
0.09 |
26.44 |
23.73 |
290 |
52.50 |
279 |
17.15 |
29.77 |
35.69 |
52.42 |
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