|
Quantamental
Equity Research on TTK HEALTHCARE LTD | Release: 29 Nov 2018 11:53:22
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:Not Listed and BSE CODE:507747 |
| Last Close: |
INR 751.25 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 441.15 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 696.2 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
1061.54 |
| Industry: |
Pharmaceuticals |
| Rating: |
NOT RATED |
| Downside: |
-7% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| TTK Healthcare Limited is engaged in pharmaceuticals, consumer
products, medical devices and foods businesses. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
9% |
50% |
97% |
|
| EBIT % |
8% |
16% |
44% |
|
| Earnings % |
-3% |
12% |
28% |
|
| Book Value
% |
49% |
101% |
144% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
37% |
0% |
145% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
74.57 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
2.42 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
2.35 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
7.94 |
|
| (E) Others |
12.72 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
334 |
419 |
394 |
441 |
523 |
1081 |
968 |
788 |
1082 |
696 |
832 |
974 |
1113 |
1279 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
15% |
21% |
19% |
15% |
12% |
14% |
17% |
12% |
8% |
12% |
13% |
14% |
14% |
15% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
28.4 |
22.1 |
19.6 |
24.1 |
32.8 |
51.9 |
33.1 |
32.7 |
84.1 |
33.9 |
33.9 |
33.9 |
33.9 |
33.9 |
|
| EVTI |
1.0 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
|
| EVTIFM |
28.4 |
22.1 |
19.6 |
24.1 |
32.8 |
51.9 |
33.1 |
32.7 |
84.1 |
33.9 |
33.9 |
33.9 |
33.9 |
33.9 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
4.3 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
7.4 |
5.7 |
4.0 |
6.7 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
5% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
4% |
4% |
-4% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
577.55 |
686.19 |
791.58 |
885.83 |
960.70 |
1,008.74 |
|
| EBITDA |
50.12 |
66.79 |
77.05 |
86.22 |
93.51 |
98.19 |
|
| EBIT |
34.88 |
48.69 |
58.51 |
67.88 |
75.99 |
83.55 |
|
| PBT |
30.15 |
43.96 |
52.54 |
61.50 |
70.28 |
80.73 |
|
| NPAT |
18.17 |
29.02 |
34.68 |
40.59 |
46.39 |
53.29 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
84.15 |
33.90 |
33.90 |
33.90 |
33.90 |
33.90 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
6.69 |
3.96 |
4.32 |
4.59 |
4.75 |
4.92 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.21 |
0.24 |
0.24 |
0.19 |
0.09 |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.15 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
2.68 |
1.48 |
1.53 |
1.58 |
1.63 |
1.74 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
116.17 |
47.83 |
47.35 |
47.24 |
47.15 |
48.17 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
1,082.02 |
696.20 |
832.25 |
974.05 |
1,113.15 |
1,278.70 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
43.96 |
52.54 |
61.50 |
70.28 |
80.73 |
|
| Interest |
4.73 |
5.97 |
6.38 |
5.72 |
2.82 |
|
| Depreciation |
18.11 |
18.54 |
18.35 |
17.52 |
14.64 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
66.79 |
77.05 |
86.22 |
93.51 |
98.19 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
44.09 |
50.86 |
56.92 |
61.73 |
64.81 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
927.03 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
44.09 |
50.86 |
56.92 |
61.73 |
991.84 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
623.33 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
623.33 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
441.15 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
1,062 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
47 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
0.96 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
47 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
6% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
16% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
4% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
96% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
16% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
64.81 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
7.7% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
927.03 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
TTK Healthcare |
751.25 |
1,062 |
169.34 |
14.15 |
15.44 |
1.43 |
44.70 |
4.44 |
30.52 |
0.21 |
0.67 |
8.65 |
8.08 |
672 |
74.57 |
223 |
-4.06 |
6.78 |
-15.48 |
-40.54 |
| 2 |
Sun Pharma.Inds. |
486.00 |
1,16,607 |
170.98 |
-1.33 |
10.41 |
4.52 |
49.62 |
2.84 |
29.52 |
0.27 |
0.41 |
-1.03 |
-1.06 |
24,298 |
51.79 |
154 |
-3.97 |
4.32 |
-109.64 |
-11.41 |
| 3 |
Cipla |
515.30 |
41,503 |
183.03 |
12.86 |
9.64 |
2.62 |
39.54 |
2.82 |
29.26 |
0.29 |
0.58 |
10.66 |
9.86 |
16,578 |
36.70 |
178 |
1.85 |
-1.73 |
-18.03 |
-16.04 |
| 4 |
Aurobindo Pharma |
790.00 |
46,287 |
221.43 |
26.14 |
22.85 |
2.60 |
19.35 |
3.57 |
20.93 |
0.41 |
0.32 |
24.56 |
23.00 |
19,004 |
50.73 |
76 |
11.79 |
7.11 |
34.21 |
-19.04 |
| 5 |
Cadila Health. |
343.80 |
35,196 |
87.03 |
22.81 |
18.28 |
3.22 |
23.42 |
3.95 |
17.76 |
0.62 |
1.02 |
18.21 |
19.83 |
11,966 |
74.79 |
93 |
2.33 |
-8.09 |
-8.66 |
-17.94 |
| 6 |
Dr Reddy's Labs |
2,572.30 |
42,712 |
790.49 |
20.70 |
7.75 |
2.87 |
27.54 |
3.25 |
27.83 |
0.40 |
0.78 |
13.44 |
13.56 |
15,783 |
26.77 |
113 |
2.17 |
7.24 |
8.47 |
71.30 |
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