|
Quantamental
Equity Research on SINCLAIRS HOTELS LTD | Release: 28 Nov 2018 18:04:39
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:Not Listed and BSE CODE:523023 |
| Last Close: |
INR 328.05 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 261.65 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 401.75 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
182.72 |
| Industry: |
Hotels |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
22% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Sinclairs Hotels Limited is engaged in the business of hotels
and motels. The Company focuses on hospitality industry. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
-3% |
24% |
20% |
|
| EBIT % |
-2% |
98% |
-9% |
|
| Earnings % |
26% |
148% |
-18% |
|
| Book Value
% |
11% |
34% |
12% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
2% |
34% |
46% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
56.96 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.04 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
22.57 |
|
| (E) Others |
20.43 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
184 |
300 |
278 |
285 |
246 |
310 |
303 |
409 |
416 |
402 |
407 |
428 |
462 |
512 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
5% |
7% |
4% |
18% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
11% |
13% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
32.5 |
34.8 |
54.6 |
12.1 |
19.7 |
36.4 |
23.9 |
24.5 |
19.7 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
|
| EVTI |
6.0 |
9.5 |
8.0 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
5.6 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
|
| EVTIFM |
32.5 |
34.8 |
54.6 |
12.1 |
19.7 |
36.4 |
23.9 |
24.5 |
19.7 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.5 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
1% |
1% |
1% |
6% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-39% |
-6% |
25% |
1% |
8% |
2% |
6% |
14% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
45.91 |
43.12 |
41.70 |
41.48 |
42.40 |
44.52 |
|
| EBITDA |
21.54 |
18.94 |
18.32 |
18.22 |
18.62 |
19.56 |
|
| EBIT |
14.16 |
12.01 |
12.18 |
12.78 |
13.81 |
15.30 |
|
| PBT |
13.95 |
12.01 |
12.18 |
12.78 |
13.81 |
15.30 |
|
| NPAT |
11.74 |
7.93 |
8.04 |
8.44 |
9.12 |
10.10 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
19.73 |
28.23 |
28.23 |
28.23 |
28.23 |
28.23 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.57 |
2.32 |
2.21 |
2.18 |
2.21 |
2.29 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.13 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
0.08 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
3.94 |
3.77 |
3.68 |
3.67 |
3.75 |
3.87 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
19.67 |
28.28 |
26.36 |
24.99 |
24.17 |
23.71 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
415.88 |
401.75 |
407.45 |
427.75 |
462.25 |
511.90 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
12.01 |
12.18 |
12.78 |
13.81 |
15.30 |
|
| Interest |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
6.93 |
6.14 |
5.43 |
4.81 |
4.26 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
18.94 |
18.32 |
18.22 |
18.62 |
19.56 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
12.50 |
12.09 |
12.03 |
12.29 |
12.91 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
207.98 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
12.50 |
12.09 |
12.03 |
12.29 |
220.89 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
145.73 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
145.73 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
261.65 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
183 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
0.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
15% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
15% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
12.91 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
0.6% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
207.98 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Indian Hotels |
137.75 |
16,382 |
35.32 |
-4.42 |
6.90 |
4.55 |
203.23 |
3.90 |
113.57 |
0.58 |
0.29 |
-2.33 |
-2.43 |
3,744 |
39.09 |
-1,745 |
-1.55 |
13.25 |
-723.61 |
106.24 |
| 2 |
Lemon Tree Hotel |
76.15 |
6,033 |
10.29 |
4.03 |
5.63 |
12.98 |
119.41 |
7.40 |
195.37 |
1.24 |
- |
4.03 |
3.10 |
540 |
30.84 |
30,165 |
0.64 |
15.35 |
191.96 |
247.63 |
| 3 |
TajGVK Hotels |
172.75 |
1,083 |
60.94 |
1.64 |
9.30 |
4.13 |
65.63 |
2.83 |
47.99 |
0.60 |
0.35 |
1.35 |
1.72 |
287 |
74.99 |
1,105 |
-1.71 |
13.73 |
-71.74 |
-43.61 |
| 4 |
EIH Assoc.Hotels |
323.05 |
984 |
94.57 |
0.83 |
20.47 |
4.81 |
-175.54 |
3.42 |
26.17 |
0.01 |
1.39 |
0.53 |
0.83 |
196 |
75.00 |
-729 |
-0.70 |
1.01 |
-71.96 |
137.59 |
| 5 |
Hotel Leela Ven. |
12.70 |
801 |
4.00 |
-65.01 |
2.22 |
6.38 |
-24.27 |
3.17 |
- |
9.84 |
- |
-65.01 |
-45.73 |
700 |
3.04 |
-10 |
5.08 |
3.63 |
-0.24 |
-202.05 |
| 6 |
Mac Charles(I) |
345.20 |
452 |
220.79 |
12.19 |
9.16 |
5.64 |
18.28 |
1.56 |
18.35 |
0.42 |
2.90 |
4.86 |
8.23 |
96 |
7.59 |
97 |
11.96 |
27.16 |
35.37 |
22.70 |
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