|
Quantamental
Equity Research on SAVITA OIL TECHNOLOGIES LTD | Release: 28 Nov 2018
18:05:05 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:SOTL and BSE CODE:524667 |
| Last Close: |
INR 995.75 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 1404.1 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 806.2 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
1426.12 |
| Industry: |
Refineries/ Petro-Products |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
41% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Savita Oil Technologies is principally engaged in two segments,
namely, manufacturing of petroleum speciality products and generation of
electricity through wind power plants. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
19% |
12% |
14% |
|
| EBIT % |
21% |
366% |
5% |
|
| Earnings % |
35% |
-10037% |
22% |
|
| Book Value
% |
12% |
31% |
45% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
55% |
166% |
202% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
71.63 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
4.40 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
11.60 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
7.99 |
|
| (E) Others |
4.38 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
458 |
517 |
451 |
479 |
497 |
544 |
502 |
936 |
1447 |
806 |
1013 |
1274 |
1579 |
1914 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
27% |
28% |
16% |
20% |
16% |
0% |
6% |
14% |
17% |
13% |
14% |
15% |
16% |
16% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
7.7 |
6.9 |
9.7 |
6.8 |
8.1 |
-626.2 |
20.3 |
14.6 |
16.4 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
|
| EVTI |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
| EVTIFM |
7.7 |
6.9 |
9.7 |
6.8 |
8.1 |
-626.2 |
20.3 |
14.6 |
16.4 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
3% |
4% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
5% |
12% |
7% |
11% |
14% |
18% |
11% |
5% |
5% |
-3% |
1% |
5% |
9% |
12% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,781.55 |
2,299.15 |
2,828.88 |
3,310.54 |
3,675.14 |
3,858.90 |
|
| EBITDA |
195.71 |
168.87 |
221.92 |
276.26 |
325.06 |
360.61 |
|
| EBIT |
169.83 |
135.47 |
184.08 |
235.67 |
283.95 |
321.45 |
|
| PBT |
156.08 |
134.39 |
168.93 |
212.30 |
263.23 |
319.09 |
|
| NPAT |
126.20 |
107.30 |
134.87 |
169.50 |
210.17 |
254.76 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
16.42 |
10.76 |
10.76 |
10.76 |
10.76 |
10.76 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.79 |
1.37 |
1.50 |
1.62 |
1.72 |
1.76 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.01 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
0.10 |
0.01 |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.17 |
0.13 |
0.14 |
0.15 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.15 |
0.53 |
0.55 |
0.58 |
0.61 |
0.65 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
16.08 |
12.08 |
11.40 |
10.95 |
10.68 |
10.52 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
1,447.04 |
806.20 |
1,013.35 |
1,273.55 |
1,579.10 |
1,914.20 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
134.39 |
168.93 |
212.30 |
263.23 |
319.09 |
|
| Interest |
1.08 |
15.16 |
23.37 |
20.72 |
2.36 |
|
| Depreciation |
33.40 |
37.84 |
40.60 |
41.11 |
39.16 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
168.87 |
221.92 |
276.26 |
325.06 |
360.61 |
|
| Tax Rate |
20.16 |
20.16 |
20.16 |
20.16 |
20.16 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
134.82 |
177.17 |
220.55 |
259.52 |
287.90 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
3,475.30 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
134.82 |
177.17 |
220.55 |
259.52 |
3,763.19 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
2,010.96 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
2,010.96 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
1,404.10 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
1,426 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.38 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
14 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
287.90 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
9.9% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
3,475.30 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Savita Oil Tech |
995.75 |
1,426 |
540.66 |
11.87 |
23.57 |
0.60 |
18.20 |
1.84 |
12.75 |
0.01 |
0.25 |
11.54 |
9.63 |
2,321 |
71.63 |
130 |
5.65 |
29.42 |
0.05 |
-33.43 |
| 2 |
Supreme Petroch. |
205.85 |
1,986 |
65.56 |
5.68 |
29.82 |
0.57 |
64.45 |
3.14 |
20.49 |
- |
2.19 |
3.56 |
4.10 |
3,060 |
62.31 |
343 |
-8.83 |
7.84 |
-60.57 |
-78.54 |
| 3 |
I G Petrochems |
421.30 |
1,297 |
192.90 |
38.45 |
46.46 |
0.95 |
7.34 |
2.18 |
8.10 |
0.10 |
0.95 |
35.22 |
47.90 |
1,303 |
68.90 |
33 |
-7.61 |
34.60 |
0.62 |
20.41 |
| 4 |
Castrol India |
154.95 |
15,326 |
10.80 |
67.70 |
105.28 |
3.85 |
27.07 |
14.35 |
22.11 |
- |
4.52 |
-0.06 |
-0.06 |
3,782 |
51.00 |
116 |
-8.88 |
7.60 |
-8.40 |
-5.76 |
| 5 |
Tide Water Oil |
5,367.65 |
1,871 |
1,902.55 |
18.75 |
23.05 |
1.26 |
26.32 |
2.82 |
17.71 |
- |
3.18 |
7.24 |
9.10 |
1,181 |
57.28 |
140 |
-2.08 |
6.72 |
5.72 |
6.63 |
| 6 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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