|
Quantamental
Equity Research on RAIN INDUSTRIES LTD | Release: 28 Nov 2018 18:00:25
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:RAIN and BSE CODE:500339 |
| Last Close: |
INR 147 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 180.3 |
| Est. Price by Dec 18: |
INR 156.6 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
4944.35 |
| Industry: |
Petrochemicals |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
23% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Rain Industries Limited (RIL) is an India-based company, which
is engaged in the business of manufacture and sale of carbon products,
chemicals and cement. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
22% |
7% |
35% |
|
| EBIT % |
51% |
148% |
59% |
|
| Earnings % |
162% |
763% |
67% |
|
| Book Value
% |
25% |
34% |
55% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
617% |
949% |
1071% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
41.10 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
16.50 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.32 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
18.66 |
|
| (E) Others |
23.42 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Dec-11 |
Dec-12 |
Dec-13 |
Dec-14 |
Dec-15 |
Dec-16 |
Dec-17 |
Dec-18 E |
Dec-19 E |
Dec-20 E |
Dec-21 E |
Dec-22 E |
|
| Price |
46 |
36 |
32 |
36 |
36 |
41 |
36 |
60 |
427 |
157 |
182 |
203 |
216 |
220 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
37% |
17% |
31% |
18% |
12% |
3% |
11% |
9% |
19% |
18% |
17% |
17% |
15% |
14% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
3.7 |
5.3 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
15.5 |
3.7 |
6.9 |
18.8 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
|
| EVTI |
1.3 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
|
| EVTIFM |
3.7 |
5.3 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
15.5 |
3.7 |
6.9 |
18.8 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
3.6 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
2.5 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
38% |
7% |
-1% |
-30% |
-10% |
15% |
17% |
16% |
5% |
-4% |
1% |
6% |
12% |
24% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Dec-17 |
Dec-18 E |
Dec-19 E |
Dec-20 E |
Dec-21 E |
Dec-22 E |
|
| Sales |
11,300.74 |
14,689.47 |
18,176.76 |
21,356.49 |
23,758.39 |
24,946.31 |
|
| EBITDA |
2,204.23 |
2,595.70 |
3,121.04 |
3,560.23 |
3,841.85 |
3,909.21 |
|
| EBIT |
1,678.60 |
1,912.45 |
2,284.03 |
2,587.15 |
2,771.35 |
2,798.42 |
|
| PBT |
1,083.93 |
1,317.78 |
1,533.04 |
1,707.64 |
1,818.03 |
1,850.13 |
|
| NPAT |
763.59 |
838.53 |
975.50 |
1,086.60 |
1,156.85 |
1,177.27 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
18.81 |
6.28 |
6.28 |
6.28 |
6.28 |
6.28 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
3.64 |
1.12 |
1.10 |
1.04 |
0.95 |
0.85 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.86 |
1.97 |
1.94 |
1.79 |
1.53 |
1.12 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.19 |
0.18 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.15 |
0.14 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.93 |
0.99 |
0.94 |
0.87 |
0.80 |
0.69 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
17.39 |
11.24 |
11.00 |
10.64 |
10.13 |
9.07 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
427.05 |
156.60 |
182.20 |
203.00 |
216.15 |
220.00 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Dec-18 E |
Dec-19 E |
Dec-20 E |
Dec-21 E |
Dec-22 E |
|
| PBT |
1,317.78 |
1,533.04 |
1,707.64 |
1,818.03 |
1,850.13 |
|
| Interest |
594.67 |
750.99 |
879.51 |
953.32 |
948.30 |
|
| Depreciation |
683.25 |
837.01 |
973.08 |
1,070.49 |
1,110.79 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
2,595.70 |
3,121.04 |
3,560.23 |
3,841.85 |
3,909.21 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
1,713.42 |
2,060.20 |
2,350.11 |
2,536.00 |
2,580.47 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
18,485.14 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
1,713.42 |
2,060.20 |
2,350.11 |
2,536.00 |
21,065.60 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
15,799.53 |
|
| Debt |
9,735.81 |
|
| Value of Equity |
6,063.72 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
180.30 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
4,944 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
7,332 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
2.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
595 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
160 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
435 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
7,332 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
6% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
32% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
60% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
40% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
16% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Dec-22 E |
|
|
|
|
2,580.47 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
18,485.14 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Rain Industries |
147.00 |
4,944 |
136.40 |
22.85 |
17.05 |
0.81 |
11.16 |
1.08 |
4.31 |
1.86 |
1.36 |
20.83 |
18.88 |
14,024 |
41.10 |
28 |
-8.18 |
14.47 |
-37.56 |
-25.15 |
| 2 |
Adani Enterp. |
159.15 |
17,503 |
135.01 |
1.84 |
6.11 |
0.86 |
16.40 |
1.18 |
30.65 |
1.19 |
0.25 |
1.73 |
1.51 |
37,314 |
47.83 |
-148 |
21.13 |
7.12 |
1,795.24 |
181.64 |
| 3 |
Redington India |
90.15 |
3,608 |
96.38 |
13.43 |
17.10 |
0.10 |
10.94 |
0.94 |
7.99 |
0.41 |
2.66 |
10.75 |
8.86 |
44,529 |
- |
50 |
8.75 |
10.67 |
11.99 |
-16.86 |
| 4 |
3M India |
20,719.35 |
23,351 |
1,508.42 |
20.13 |
34.63 |
8.09 |
112.08 |
13.74 |
67.06 |
0.01 |
- |
20.13 |
20.95 |
2,790 |
75.00 |
475 |
-2.54 |
20.36 |
-35.91 |
6.95 |
| 5 |
PTC India |
82.15 |
2,432 |
108.69 |
14.99 |
14.55 |
0.06 |
3.90 |
0.76 |
8.67 |
0.21 |
4.87 |
9.43 |
18.66 |
18,401 |
16.22 |
80 |
33.89 |
30.00 |
55.75 |
-26.70 |
| 6 |
Aegis Logistics |
225.40 |
7,528 |
38.04 |
23.76 |
18.22 |
1.34 |
31.21 |
5.93 |
33.06 |
0.25 |
0.55 |
18.75 |
15.84 |
5,712 |
60.58 |
136 |
40.22 |
14.90 |
-2.79 |
2.79 |
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