|
Quantamental
Equity Research on ORCHID PHARMA LTD | Release: 29 Nov 2018 22:47:32
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:Not Listed and BSE CODE:524372 |
| Last Close: |
INR 5.55 |
| Fair Value: |
INR -387.95 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR -126.3 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
49.38 |
| Industry: |
Pharmaceuticals |
| Rating: |
STRONG SELL |
| Downside: |
-2376% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Orchid Pharma formerly Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
Limited, is involved in the development, manufacture and marketing of various
bulk actives, formulations and nutraceuticals. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
-15% |
-23% |
-20% |
|
| EBIT % |
-52% |
-159% |
-135% |
|
| Earnings % |
-27% |
86% |
-445% |
|
| Book Value
% |
97% |
-253% |
-159% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
-64% |
-78% |
-94% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
0.00 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.00 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
0.00 |
|
| (E) Others |
100.00 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-09 |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Sep-13 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
91 |
157 |
309 |
185 |
48 |
55 |
41 |
33 |
12 |
-126 |
-125 |
-125 |
-126 |
-129 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
-8% |
34% |
14% |
9% |
-109% |
-43% |
-160% |
142% |
53% |
27% |
21% |
18% |
15% |
13% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
-12.3 |
3.3 |
13.7 |
12.6 |
-0.6 |
-2.4 |
-1.3 |
-0.6 |
-0.3 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
| EVTI |
2.4 |
1.1 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
|
| EVTIFM |
-12.3 |
3.3 |
13.7 |
12.6 |
-0.6 |
-2.4 |
-1.3 |
-0.6 |
-0.3 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
-0.9 |
-0.2 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
3.9 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
6.6 |
7.3 |
18.8 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Dividend Yield |
1% |
6% |
1% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-20% |
55% |
-7% |
7% |
-17% |
20% |
9% |
15% |
6% |
21% |
15% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
644.17 |
506.11 |
431.09 |
395.67 |
389.31 |
408.77 |
|
| EBITDA |
42.07 |
32.49 |
27.67 |
25.40 |
24.99 |
26.24 |
|
| EBIT |
-91.22 |
-72.24 |
-70.03 |
-65.76 |
-60.06 |
-53.11 |
|
| PBT |
-401.47 |
-382.49 |
-377.14 |
-378.02 |
-383.21 |
-391.76 |
|
| NPAT |
-355.28 |
-252.48 |
-248.95 |
-249.53 |
-252.96 |
-258.60 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
-0.30 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
-0.16 |
1.21 |
0.94 |
0.78 |
0.67 |
0.59 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.53 |
0.27 |
0.21 |
0.18 |
0.15 |
0.13 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
4.79 |
3.68 |
4.46 |
5.12 |
5.58 |
5.77 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
-31.65 |
-30.29 |
-32.36 |
-36.37 |
-42.56 |
-51.97 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
11.94 |
-126.30 |
-124.50 |
-124.75 |
-126.45 |
-129.25 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
- 382.49 |
- 377.14 |
- 378.02 |
- 383.21 |
- 391.76 |
|
| Interest |
310.25 |
307.10 |
312.26 |
323.15 |
338.64 |
|
| Depreciation |
104.72 |
97.71 |
91.16 |
85.05 |
79.35 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
32.49 |
27.67 |
25.40 |
24.99 |
26.24 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
21.44 |
18.27 |
16.77 |
16.50 |
17.32 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
268.68 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
21.44 |
18.27 |
16.77 |
16.50 |
286.00 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
247.26 |
|
| Debt |
3,699.25 |
|
| Value of Equity |
-3,451.98 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
-387.95 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
49 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
3,202 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.97 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
310 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
36 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
275 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
3,202 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
9% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
25% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
98% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
2% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
9% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
17.32 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
-4.3% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
268.68 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Divi's Lab. |
1,480.10 |
39,292 |
237.46 |
34.93 |
21.37 |
6.84 |
27.67 |
6.23 |
34.16 |
0.01 |
0.68 |
24.27 |
31.34 |
5,460 |
52.02 |
124 |
29.11 |
44.35 |
49.40 |
92.31 |
| 2 |
Jubilant Life |
696.55 |
11,096 |
288.70 |
26.01 |
15.26 |
1.56 |
14.20 |
2.41 |
14.31 |
0.85 |
0.43 |
24.12 |
21.80 |
9,093 |
50.68 |
54 |
9.18 |
38.23 |
4.69 |
67.19 |
| 3 |
Vinati Organics |
1,391.75 |
7,152 |
174.75 |
42.54 |
27.52 |
6.67 |
30.95 |
7.96 |
33.59 |
0.02 |
0.32 |
35.70 |
44.19 |
1,054 |
74.01 |
132 |
-4.51 |
57.34 |
1.21 |
123.09 |
| 4 |
Granules India |
85.65 |
2,178 |
55.66 |
23.91 |
11.92 |
1.21 |
14.43 |
1.54 |
13.39 |
0.75 |
1.17 |
19.33 |
15.78 |
2,392 |
17.80 |
51 |
28.16 |
47.97 |
16.33 |
49.38 |
| 5 |
Suven Life Scie. |
241.75 |
3,077 |
72.55 |
9.84 |
25.09 |
7.05 |
53.26 |
3.33 |
19.99 |
0.03 |
0.62 |
8.65 |
31.66 |
384 |
60.00 |
269 |
-53.29 |
-16.23 |
-53.63 |
-43.28 |
| 6 |
Orchid Pharma |
5.55 |
49 |
-75.77 |
63.05 |
-3.45 |
4.49 |
-31.13 |
- |
- |
-4.75 |
- |
63.05 |
981.60 |
629 |
0.01 |
-1 |
8.01 |
-23.96 |
19.60 |
50.94 |
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