|
Quantamental
Equity Research on NBCC (INDIA) LTD | Release: 30 Nov 2018 19:17:38 UTC+05:30
| Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:NBCC and BSE CODE:534309 |
Last Close: |
INR 52.9 |
Fair Value: |
INR 22.15 |
Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 38 |
Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
9522.00 |
Industry: |
Construction & Engineering |
Rating: |
STRONG SELL |
Downside: |
-28% |
Company Profile |
|
|
NBCC (India) is a operates into three major segments namely
Project Management Consultancy, Real Estate and Engineering Procurement &
Construction. |
Growth Per Share |
|
|
Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
Revenue % |
-6% |
61% |
105% |
|
EBIT % |
3% |
17% |
67% |
|
Earnings % |
-5% |
20% |
61% |
|
Book Value
% |
9% |
38% |
92% |
|
Stock Total
Return % |
14% |
76% |
1068% |
|
|
Share holding
pattern |
Particulars |
%age |
|
(A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
73.75 |
|
(B) FII/FPI |
12.18 |
|
(C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
2.24 |
|
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
8.48 |
|
(E) Others |
3.35 |
|
Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
Price |
|
|
6 |
9 |
12 |
60 |
65 |
92 |
105 |
38 |
48 |
58 |
65 |
68 |
|
Return on
Equity |
21% |
21% |
24% |
22% |
22% |
21% |
19% |
21% |
18% |
18% |
19% |
20% |
20% |
18% |
|
Price to
Earning |
|
|
5.1 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
32.2 |
34.2 |
47.1 |
56.4 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
|
EVTI |
|
|
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
|
EVTIFM |
|
|
5.1 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
32.2 |
34.2 |
47.1 |
56.4 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
18.9 |
|
Price to Book
Value |
|
|
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
9.9 |
10.3 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
|
Debt to
Equity |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
Dividend Yield |
|
|
4% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
Cash Flow to
Firm |
-72% |
-4% |
-115% |
-105% |
373% |
45% |
43% |
2% |
1% |
-2% |
0% |
1% |
3% |
5% |
|
|
Detailed Estimates |
Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
Sales |
5,905.01 |
7,913.92 |
10,032.11 |
11,989.40 |
13,458.72 |
14,131.65 |
|
EBITDA |
507.61 |
552.04 |
699.79 |
836.32 |
938.81 |
985.75 |
|
EBIT |
504.90 |
548.40 |
695.13 |
830.68 |
932.39 |
978.92 |
|
PBT |
502.62 |
548.40 |
695.13 |
830.68 |
932.39 |
978.92 |
|
NPAT |
333.61 |
362.01 |
458.87 |
548.35 |
615.49 |
646.20 |
|
Price to
Earning |
56.40 |
18.87 |
18.87 |
18.87 |
18.87 |
18.87 |
|
Price to Book
Value |
10.33 |
3.31 |
3.66 |
3.79 |
3.71 |
3.42 |
|
Debt to
Equity |
- |
0.17 |
0.29 |
0.33 |
0.29 |
0.19 |
|
Return on
Equity |
0.18 |
0.18 |
0.19 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0.18 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
3.12 |
0.89 |
0.91 |
0.92 |
0.91 |
0.89 |
|
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
81.91 |
28.89 |
29.67 |
29.92 |
29.73 |
29.09 |
|
Price or Est.
Share Prices |
104.53 |
38.00 |
48.20 |
57.60 |
64.70 |
67.95 |
|
|
DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
PBT |
548.40 |
695.13 |
830.68 |
932.39 |
978.92 |
|
Interest |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Depreciation |
3.63 |
4.66 |
5.64 |
6.42 |
6.84 |
|
Cash Flow
Before Tax |
552.04 |
699.79 |
836.32 |
938.81 |
985.75 |
|
Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
Cash Flow
After Tax |
364.40 |
461.93 |
552.06 |
619.71 |
650.70 |
|
Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
7,857.27 |
|
Total Cash
Flow |
364.40 |
461.93 |
552.06 |
619.71 |
8,507.97 |
|
Present Value of
Cash Flow |
4,656.93 |
|
Debt |
675.27 |
|
Value of Equity |
3,981.67 |
|
Fair Value Per
Share |
22.15 |
|
|
Equity |
|
|
|
|
9,522 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
Debt |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
WACC |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
|
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
650.70 |
|
Growth |
|
|
|
|
10.0% |
|
Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
7,857.27 |
|
|
Peer Comparision |
# |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
1 |
Indbull.RealEst. |
78.25 |
3,527 |
97.85 |
5.41 |
22.11 |
1.06 |
9.62 |
0.80 |
1.54 |
1.09 |
- |
5.41 |
12.28 |
4,239 |
23.33 |
62 |
28.31 |
121.00 |
-35.38 |
20.08 |
2 |
Oberoi Realty |
446.30 |
16,228 |
212.38 |
17.77 |
9.11 |
6.19 |
19.40 |
2.10 |
20.64 |
0.28 |
0.42 |
15.14 |
19.21 |
2,484 |
67.70 |
88 |
-33.34 |
95.08 |
-30.89 |
104.98 |
3 |
Dilip Buildcon |
454.00 |
6,209 |
202.98 |
15.58 |
23.26 |
1.34 |
12.31 |
2.24 |
8.47 |
1.20 |
0.22 |
15.23 |
21.38 |
6,546 |
62.49 |
88 |
-33.35 |
2.65 |
-67.35 |
-28.00 |
4 |
Prestige Estates |
216.55 |
8,121 |
126.21 |
10.76 |
9.11 |
2.62 |
19.49 |
1.72 |
21.48 |
1.57 |
0.55 |
9.45 |
9.84 |
5,489 |
70.00 |
155 |
53.55 |
20.44 |
-21.63 |
12.68 |
5 |
NBCC |
52.90 |
9,522 |
7.49 |
23.49 |
28.84 |
1.18 |
86.43 |
7.07 |
26.66 |
- |
1.05 |
16.46 |
16.90 |
6,586 |
73.75 |
442 |
-3.15 |
39.67 |
27.05 |
15.97 |
6 |
Phoenix Mills |
614.55 |
9,417 |
209.43 |
9.82 |
10.10 |
7.22 |
27.15 |
2.93 |
35.62 |
1.29 |
0.42 |
8.21 |
7.61 |
1,692 |
62.80 |
248 |
-2.04 |
9.21 |
3.48 |
87.40 |
Comments
Post a Comment