NBCC (INDIA) LTD - Quantamental Equity Research Report

Quantamental Equity Research on NBCC (INDIA) LTD | Release: 30 Nov 2018 19:17:38 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:NBCC and BSE CODE:534309
Last Close:  INR 52.9
Fair Value:  INR 22.15
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 38
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  9522.00
Industry:  Construction & Engineering
Rating:  STRONG SELL
Downside:  -28%
Company Profile
NBCC (India) is a operates into three major segments namely Project Management Consultancy, Real Estate and Engineering Procurement & Construction.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % -6% 61% 105%  
EBIT % 3% 17% 67%  
Earnings % -5% 20% 61%  
Book Value %  9% 38% 92%  
Stock Total Return %  14% 76% 1068%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 73.75  
(B) FII/FPI 12.18  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 2.24  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 8.48  
(E) Others 3.35  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price     6 9 12 60 65 92 105 38 48 58 65 68  
Return on Equity 21% 21% 24% 22% 22% 21% 19% 21% 18% 18% 19% 20% 20% 18%  
Price to Earning      5.1 6.5 7.3 32.2 34.2 47.1 56.4 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9  
EVTI     0.2 0.4 0.4 1.9 1.6 2.6 3.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9  
EVTIFM     5.1 6.5 7.3 32.2 34.2 47.1 56.4 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9  
Price to Book Value     1.2 1.4 1.6 6.7 6.4 9.9 10.3 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.4  
Debt to Equity  0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2  
Dividend Yield     4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%  
Cash Flow to Firm -72% -4% -115% -105% 373% 45% 43% 2% 1% -2% 0% 1% 3% 5%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       5,905.01       7,913.92     10,032.11     11,989.40     13,458.72     14,131.65  
EBITDA          507.61          552.04          699.79          836.32          938.81          985.75  
EBIT          504.90          548.40          695.13          830.68          932.39          978.92  
PBT          502.62          548.40          695.13          830.68          932.39          978.92  
NPAT          333.61          362.01          458.87          548.35          615.49          646.20  
Price to Earning             56.40            18.87            18.87            18.87            18.87            18.87  
Price to Book Value            10.33              3.31              3.66              3.79              3.71              3.42  
Debt to Equity                   -                0.17              0.29              0.33              0.29              0.19  
Return on Equity              0.18              0.18              0.19              0.20              0.20              0.18  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              3.12              0.89              0.91              0.92              0.91              0.89  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            81.91            28.89            29.67            29.92            29.73            29.09  
Price or Est. Share Prices          104.53            38.00            48.20            57.60            64.70            67.95  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          548.40          695.13          830.68          932.39          978.92  
Interest                  -                    -                    -                    -                    -    
Depreciation              3.63              4.66              5.64              6.42              6.84  
Cash Flow Before Tax          552.04          699.79          836.32          938.81          985.75  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          364.40          461.93          552.06          619.71          650.70  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                      -         7,857.27  
Total Cash Flow          364.40          461.93          552.06          619.71       8,507.97  
Present Value of Cash Flow       4,656.93  
Debt          675.27  
Value of Equity       3,981.67  
Fair Value Per Share            22.15  
Equity            9,522
Debt                   0
Beta Take from Reuters 1.39
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 8%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 9%
Interest Paid                   2
Tax Benefit                   1
Interest Net of Tax                   2
Debt                   0
Cost of Debt 0%
Cost of Equity 20%
Debt Weight 0%
Equity Weight 100%
WACC 20%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E          650.70
Growth 10.0%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow       7,857.27
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  Indbull.RealEst.             78.25            3,527            97.85              5.41            22.11              1.06              9.62              0.80              1.54              1.09                  -                5.41            12.28            4,239            23.33                 62            28.31          121.00           -35.38            20.08
   2  Oberoi Realty           446.30          16,228          212.38            17.77              9.11              6.19            19.40              2.10            20.64              0.28              0.42            15.14            19.21            2,484            67.70                 88           -33.34            95.08           -30.89          104.98
   3  Dilip Buildcon           454.00            6,209          202.98            15.58            23.26              1.34            12.31              2.24              8.47              1.20              0.22            15.23            21.38            6,546            62.49                 88           -33.35              2.65           -67.35           -28.00
   4  Prestige Estates           216.55            8,121          126.21            10.76              9.11              2.62            19.49              1.72            21.48              1.57              0.55              9.45              9.84            5,489            70.00               155            53.55            20.44           -21.63            12.68
   5  NBCC             52.90            9,522              7.49            23.49            28.84              1.18            86.43              7.07            26.66                  -                1.05            16.46            16.90            6,586            73.75               442             -3.15            39.67            27.05            15.97
   6  Phoenix Mills           614.55            9,417          209.43              9.82            10.10              7.22            27.15              2.93            35.62              1.29              0.42              8.21              7.61            1,692            62.80               248             -2.04              9.21              3.48            87.40

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