|
Quantamental
Equity Research on MARICO LTD | Release: 27 Nov 2018 16:22:20 UTC+05:30 |
Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:MARICO and BSE CODE:531642 |
| Last Close: |
INR 360.2 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 195.3 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 323.2 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
46496.94 |
| Industry: |
Personal Products |
| Rating: |
SELL |
| Downside: |
-10% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Marico is one of India's leading consumer products companies
operating in the beauty and wellness space. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
7% |
30% |
10% |
|
| EBIT % |
-3% |
34% |
86% |
|
| Earnings % |
2% |
42% |
106% |
|
| Book Value
% |
8% |
42% |
30% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
6% |
61% |
200% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
59.71 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
25.10 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
7.24 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
3.06 |
|
| (E) Others |
4.89 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
56 |
69 |
87 |
107 |
104 |
199 |
252 |
303 |
322 |
323 |
377 |
426 |
468 |
500 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
35% |
31% |
28% |
20% |
36% |
31% |
35% |
33% |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
30% |
29% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
30.1 |
30.2 |
34.6 |
35.0 |
27.7 |
44.9 |
45.6 |
49.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
|
| EVTI |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
4.5 |
5.3 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
|
| EVTIFM |
30.1 |
30.2 |
34.6 |
35.0 |
27.7 |
44.9 |
45.6 |
49.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
51.0 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
10.7 |
9.4 |
9.6 |
7.0 |
9.9 |
14.1 |
16.1 |
16.4 |
16.1 |
14.6 |
15.3 |
15.6 |
15.4 |
14.9 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
3% |
-3% |
7% |
-6% |
23% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
6,322.18 |
7,591.13 |
8,828.76 |
9,935.50 |
10,806.63 |
11,346.96 |
|
| EBITDA |
1,222.27 |
1,381.45 |
1,606.68 |
1,808.09 |
1,966.62 |
2,064.95 |
|
| EBIT |
1,133.19 |
1,274.49 |
1,488.31 |
1,681.56 |
1,836.13 |
1,946.73 |
|
| PBT |
1,117.02 |
1,258.32 |
1,467.20 |
1,659.92 |
1,819.71 |
1,946.73 |
|
| NPAT |
814.49 |
817.61 |
953.33 |
1,078.55 |
1,182.38 |
1,264.91 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
51.02 |
51.02 |
51.02 |
51.02 |
51.02 |
51.02 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
16.08 |
14.61 |
15.35 |
15.61 |
15.41 |
14.89 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.12 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.09 |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.32 |
0.29 |
0.30 |
0.31 |
0.30 |
0.29 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
6.45 |
5.41 |
5.43 |
5.45 |
5.46 |
5.53 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
55.72 |
56.73 |
56.68 |
56.67 |
56.58 |
56.74 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
321.95 |
323.20 |
376.90 |
426.45 |
467.55 |
500.20 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
1,258.32 |
1,467.20 |
1,659.92 |
1,819.71 |
1,946.73 |
|
| Interest |
16.17 |
21.11 |
21.63 |
16.41 |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
106.96 |
118.37 |
126.53 |
130.49 |
118.22 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
1,381.45 |
1,606.68 |
1,808.09 |
1,966.62 |
2,064.95 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
911.90 |
1,060.57 |
1,193.52 |
1,298.17 |
1,363.07 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
37,414.93 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
911.90 |
1,060.57 |
1,193.52 |
1,298.17 |
38,778.00 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
25,207.02 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
25,207.02 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
195.30 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
46,497 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
313 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
16 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
313 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
4% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
12% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
1% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
99% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
12% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
1,363.07 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
8.0% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
37,414.93 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Godrej Consumer |
746.70 |
76,325 |
67.22 |
47.36 |
21.09 |
6.61 |
50.98 |
11.11 |
47.27 |
0.56 |
0.89 |
27.62 |
27.42 |
11,780 |
63.25 |
261 |
7.40 |
6.09 |
42.64 |
-12.96 |
| 2 |
Dabur India |
419.05 |
74,015 |
29.06 |
33.08 |
28.30 |
8.03 |
55.29 |
14.42 |
51.48 |
0.16 |
1.78 |
6.19 |
12.61 |
8,826 |
67.88 |
250 |
2.13 |
8.48 |
14.41 |
4.10 |
| 3 |
Marico |
360.20 |
46,497 |
23.60 |
41.89 |
39.49 |
6.17 |
58.85 |
15.26 |
52.55 |
0.12 |
1.18 |
13.67 |
15.46 |
7,467 |
59.71 |
247 |
-9.37 |
19.56 |
-16.10 |
17.95 |
| 4 |
Emami |
438.95 |
19,925 |
41.81 |
20.45 |
22.12 |
7.87 |
59.54 |
10.50 |
62.73 |
0.16 |
0.80 |
9.87 |
10.64 |
2,525 |
40.65 |
250 |
2.22 |
0.01 |
206.79 |
-16.15 |
| 5 |
Bajaj Corp |
346.05 |
5,104 |
41.44 |
49.86 |
52.95 |
5.31 |
25.29 |
8.35 |
23.63 |
0.03 |
3.47 |
9.05 |
86.56 |
879 |
24.67 |
115 |
-3.92 |
4.21 |
-3.94 |
1.85 |
| 6 |
Jyothy Lab. |
192.50 |
7,069 |
20.14 |
33.14 |
20.30 |
4.15 |
38.33 |
9.56 |
40.31 |
0.70 |
0.13 |
31.26 |
54.57 |
1,729 |
53.96 |
174 |
6.24 |
7.14 |
40.02 |
7.21 |
Comments
Post a Comment