|
Quantamental
Equity Research on MAC CHARLES (INDIA) LTD | Release: 28 Nov 2018 18:03:31
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:Not Listed and BSE CODE:507836 |
| Last Close: |
INR 345.2 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 505.2 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 316.3 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
452.21 |
| Industry: |
Hotels |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
46% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Mac Charles (India) engages in the hotel business in India. The
company operates Le Meridien, a five star hotel with 197 rooms and suites in
Bangalore, India. It is also involved in the generation of electricity
through wind turbine generators. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
9% |
56% |
71% |
|
| EBIT % |
-8% |
-1% |
59% |
|
| Earnings % |
-26% |
-16% |
36% |
|
| Book Value
% |
2% |
22% |
28% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
-32% |
114% |
258% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
80.99 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.02 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
11.95 |
|
| (E) Others |
7.04 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
108 |
113 |
121 |
97 |
90 |
162 |
345 |
510 |
347 |
316 |
347 |
375 |
399 |
430 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
13% |
13% |
7% |
7% |
3% |
11% |
13% |
10% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
2.8 |
2.7 |
10.5 |
7.9 |
17.0 |
8.2 |
13.0 |
22.8 |
20.8 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
|
| EVTI |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
3.2 |
8.4 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
|
| EVTIFM |
2.8 |
2.7 |
10.5 |
7.9 |
17.0 |
8.2 |
13.0 |
22.8 |
20.8 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
16.2 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
10% |
11% |
5% |
6% |
7% |
5% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
947% |
-45% |
17% |
136% |
-11400% |
31% |
17% |
-23% |
-7% |
-2% |
0% |
2% |
6% |
7% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
78.17 |
90.53 |
102.39 |
113.05 |
121.75 |
127.84 |
|
| EBITDA |
41.72 |
51.46 |
58.21 |
64.27 |
69.22 |
72.68 |
|
| EBIT |
36.28 |
45.16 |
51.15 |
56.54 |
60.97 |
64.74 |
|
| PBT |
29.98 |
38.86 |
42.65 |
46.13 |
49.06 |
52.79 |
|
| NPAT |
21.80 |
25.64 |
28.14 |
30.44 |
32.37 |
34.83 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
20.84 |
16.16 |
16.16 |
16.16 |
16.16 |
16.16 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.55 |
1.36 |
1.43 |
1.48 |
1.50 |
1.55 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.42 |
0.55 |
0.64 |
0.71 |
0.68 |
0.63 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.07 |
0.08 |
0.09 |
0.09 |
0.09 |
0.10 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
6.21 |
5.34 |
5.39 |
5.40 |
5.24 |
5.20 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
35.05 |
33.53 |
33.78 |
33.78 |
32.75 |
32.21 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
346.64 |
316.30 |
347.15 |
375.45 |
399.30 |
429.75 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
38.86 |
42.65 |
46.13 |
49.06 |
52.79 |
|
| Interest |
6.30 |
8.49 |
10.41 |
11.92 |
11.94 |
|
| Depreciation |
6.30 |
7.06 |
7.73 |
8.25 |
7.94 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
51.46 |
58.21 |
64.27 |
69.22 |
72.68 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
33.97 |
38.42 |
42.42 |
45.69 |
47.97 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
1,145.59 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
33.97 |
38.42 |
42.42 |
45.69 |
1,193.56 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
889.75 |
|
| Debt |
227.97 |
|
| Value of Equity |
661.78 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
505.20 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
452 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
124 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
0.36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
124 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
4% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
11% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
22% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
78% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
9% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
47.97 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
4.7% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
1,145.59 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Indian Hotels |
137.75 |
16,382 |
35.32 |
-4.42 |
6.90 |
4.55 |
203.23 |
3.90 |
113.57 |
0.58 |
0.29 |
-2.33 |
-2.43 |
3,744 |
39.09 |
-1,745 |
-1.55 |
13.25 |
-723.61 |
106.24 |
| 2 |
Lemon Tree Hotel |
76.15 |
6,033 |
10.29 |
4.03 |
5.63 |
12.98 |
119.41 |
7.40 |
195.37 |
1.24 |
- |
4.03 |
3.10 |
540 |
30.84 |
30,165 |
0.64 |
15.35 |
191.96 |
247.63 |
| 3 |
TajGVK Hotels |
172.75 |
1,083 |
60.94 |
1.64 |
9.30 |
4.13 |
65.63 |
2.83 |
47.99 |
0.60 |
0.35 |
1.35 |
1.72 |
287 |
74.99 |
1,105 |
-1.71 |
13.73 |
-71.74 |
-43.61 |
| 4 |
EIH Assoc.Hotels |
323.05 |
984 |
94.57 |
0.83 |
20.47 |
4.81 |
-175.54 |
3.42 |
26.17 |
0.01 |
1.39 |
0.53 |
0.83 |
196 |
75.00 |
-729 |
-0.70 |
1.01 |
-71.96 |
137.59 |
| 5 |
Hotel Leela Ven. |
12.70 |
801 |
4.00 |
-65.01 |
2.22 |
6.38 |
-24.27 |
3.17 |
- |
9.84 |
- |
-65.01 |
-45.73 |
700 |
3.04 |
-10 |
5.08 |
3.63 |
-0.24 |
-202.05 |
| 6 |
Mac Charles(I) |
345.20 |
452 |
220.79 |
12.19 |
9.16 |
5.64 |
18.28 |
1.56 |
18.35 |
0.42 |
2.90 |
4.86 |
8.23 |
96 |
7.59 |
97 |
11.96 |
27.16 |
35.37 |
22.70 |
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