|
Quantamental
Equity Research on K C P LTD | Release: 28 Nov 2018 18:00:59 UTC+05:30 |
Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:KCP and BSE CODE:590066 |
| Last Close: |
INR 90.35 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 88.4 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 91.8 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
1164.80 |
| Industry: |
Cement & Cement Products |
| Rating: |
NEUTRAL |
| Upside: |
2% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| The KCP Limited is engaged in cement, engineering, power and
other businesses. The Company's segments include Engineering, Cement, Power,
Sugar and Others. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
25% |
19% |
29% |
|
| EBIT % |
48% |
102% |
82% |
|
| Earnings % |
140% |
412% |
167% |
|
| Book Value
% |
13% |
30% |
30% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
13% |
117% |
354% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
44.32 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
1.03 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
5.34 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
29.27 |
|
| (E) Others |
20.04 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
31 |
27 |
33 |
31 |
33 |
64 |
85 |
123 |
139 |
92 |
108 |
124 |
141 |
170 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
21% |
13% |
18% |
9% |
0% |
4% |
11% |
8% |
17% |
11% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
6.6 |
8.6 |
7.0 |
12.9 |
329.7 |
51.8 |
25.6 |
46.8 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
|
| EVTI |
1.5 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
|
| EVTIFM |
6.6 |
8.6 |
7.0 |
12.9 |
329.7 |
51.8 |
25.6 |
46.8 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
22.0 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
3% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
0% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-39% |
-14% |
15% |
7% |
-4% |
8% |
11% |
4% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
6% |
12% |
11% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,023.40 |
1,184.15 |
1,338.46 |
1,477.05 |
1,590.44 |
1,669.96 |
|
| EBITDA |
197.70 |
174.52 |
197.27 |
217.69 |
234.40 |
246.12 |
|
| EBIT |
148.67 |
117.79 |
135.17 |
151.39 |
165.38 |
181.42 |
|
| PBT |
112.37 |
81.49 |
95.39 |
110.04 |
124.84 |
150.75 |
|
| NPAT |
81.27 |
53.79 |
62.96 |
72.64 |
82.40 |
99.51 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
22.00 |
22.00 |
22.00 |
22.00 |
22.00 |
22.00 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
3.84 |
2.34 |
2.50 |
2.62 |
2.70 |
2.93 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.03 |
1.04 |
0.98 |
0.88 |
0.60 |
0.36 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.17 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
0.13 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
2.11 |
1.38 |
1.38 |
1.39 |
1.34 |
1.41 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
32.32 |
35.42 |
34.95 |
34.52 |
32.87 |
33.21 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
138.61 |
91.80 |
107.50 |
124.05 |
140.75 |
170.00 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
81.49 |
95.39 |
110.04 |
124.84 |
150.75 |
|
| Interest |
36.30 |
39.79 |
41.35 |
40.55 |
30.67 |
|
| Depreciation |
56.73 |
62.09 |
66.30 |
69.02 |
64.70 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
174.52 |
197.27 |
217.69 |
234.40 |
246.12 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
115.20 |
130.22 |
143.70 |
154.73 |
162.47 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
2,036.15 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
115.20 |
130.22 |
143.70 |
154.73 |
2,198.62 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
1,405.25 |
|
| Debt |
265.78 |
|
| Value of Equity |
1,139.48 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
88.40 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
1,165 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
479 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
36 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
26 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
479 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
5% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
21% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
29% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
71% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
16% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
162.47 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
6.9% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
2,036.15 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Dalmia Bhar. |
2,398.15 |
21,380 |
672.70 |
14.82 |
11.29 |
2.75 |
32.52 |
3.56 |
34.92 |
1.62 |
0.09 |
13.98 |
15.12 |
9,643 |
57.92 |
204 |
-9.75 |
15.82 |
-29.00 |
-13.80 |
| 2 |
The Ramco Cement |
599.90 |
14,132 |
178.12 |
14.02 |
16.39 |
3.15 |
31.67 |
3.37 |
30.02 |
0.28 |
0.50 |
12.24 |
11.71 |
4,758 |
41.91 |
130 |
-2.98 |
10.98 |
-8.41 |
-32.07 |
| 3 |
India Cements |
90.95 |
2,816 |
167.90 |
0.14 |
5.63 |
0.96 |
14.33 |
0.54 |
38.60 |
0.60 |
0.88 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
5,563 |
18.09 |
-1,193 |
1.94 |
9.37 |
-93.20 |
-93.96 |
| 4 |
K C P |
90.35 |
1,165 |
37.46 |
22.32 |
17.81 |
1.34 |
31.06 |
2.41 |
19.89 |
1.03 |
1.11 |
18.78 |
17.18 |
1,188 |
41.80 |
188 |
1.23 |
12.88 |
89.41 |
-44.42 |
| 5 |
Deccan Cements |
382.40 |
536 |
272.59 |
13.95 |
16.70 |
0.75 |
13.17 |
1.40 |
13.67 |
0.10 |
0.78 |
12.43 |
9.90 |
658 |
56.19 |
64 |
0.49 |
19.32 |
-10.31 |
7.05 |
| 6 |
NCL Inds. |
126.40 |
572 |
103.53 |
8.27 |
15.90 |
0.91 |
12.48 |
1.22 |
15.45 |
0.60 |
1.98 |
6.37 |
5.79 |
920 |
20.82 |
89 |
-4.43 |
21.39 |
24.39 |
-20.78 |
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