|
Quantamental
Equity Research on JAYPEE INFRATECH LTD | Release: 30 Nov 2018 14:18:03
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:JPINFRATEC and BSE CODE:533207 |
| Last Close: |
INR 3.75 |
| Fair Value: |
INR -49.9 |
| Est. Price by Mar 18: |
INR -15.2 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
520.85 |
| Industry: |
Roads & Highways |
| Rating: |
STRONG SELL |
| Downside: |
-505% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Jaypee Infratech Ltd is engaged in the construction, operation,
and maintenance of the Yamuna Expressway and related real estate projects. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
-66% |
-8% |
12% |
|
| EBIT % |
-169% |
-131% |
-124% |
|
| Earnings % |
145% |
-393% |
-168% |
|
| Book Value
% |
-11% |
-12% |
-8% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
49% |
-48% |
-75% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
60.98 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
4.39 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
4.87 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
9.85 |
|
| (E) Others |
19.91 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-09 |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 E |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
|
| Price |
|
|
61 |
48 |
39 |
23 |
18 |
8 |
12 |
-15 |
-4 |
-17 |
-12 |
-13 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
21% |
24% |
30% |
22% |
11% |
5% |
6% |
-6% |
-16% |
-10% |
-2% |
-12% |
-10% |
-12% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
|
|
5.9 |
5.2 |
7.8 |
10.5 |
6.8 |
-3.1 |
-1.9 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
|
| EVTI |
|
|
5.3 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
10.1 |
0.7 |
9.7 |
-46.0 |
-129.8 |
-131.4 |
|
| EVTIFM |
|
|
5.9 |
5.2 |
7.8 |
10.5 |
6.8 |
-3.1 |
-1.9 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
|
|
1.8 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-0.4 |
-0.5 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.5 |
2.9 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
|
|
2% |
2% |
3% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-89% |
-70% |
-11% |
-1% |
3% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
13% |
-935% |
-87% |
96% |
3% |
6% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 E |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
|
| Sales |
962.14 |
-1,191.66 |
794.15 |
-74.87 |
-35.78 |
-37.57 |
|
| EBITDA |
-357.63 |
72.26 |
-48.15 |
4.54 |
2.17 |
2.28 |
|
| EBIT |
-398.90 |
123.37 |
3.22 |
56.17 |
54.06 |
54.43 |
|
| PBT |
-1,242.48 |
-720.21 |
-167.26 |
-799.25 |
-566.20 |
-621.36 |
|
| NPAT |
-876.39 |
-475.41 |
-110.41 |
-527.59 |
-373.75 |
-410.16 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
-1.89 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
4.45 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
0.31 |
-0.43 |
-0.10 |
-0.55 |
-0.43 |
-0.53 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
1.59 |
0.35 |
1.81 |
1.48 |
1.76 |
2.11 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
-0.16 |
-0.10 |
-0.02 |
-0.12 |
-0.10 |
-0.12 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
10.05 |
0.69 |
9.68 |
-45.98 |
-129.79 |
-131.41 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
-34.06 |
-10.01 |
3,566.24 |
92.18 |
130.12 |
137.31 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
11.90 |
-15.20 |
-3.50 |
-16.70 |
-11.80 |
-12.90 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-18 E |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
|
| PBT |
- 720.21 |
- 167.26 |
- 799.25 |
- 566.20 |
- 621.36 |
|
| Interest |
843.58 |
170.48 |
855.42 |
620.26 |
675.79 |
|
| Depreciation |
- 51.12 |
- 51.37 |
- 51.63 |
- 51.89 |
- 52.15 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
72.26 |
- 48.15 |
4.54 |
2.17 |
2.28 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
47.70 |
- 31.79 |
3.00 |
1.43 |
1.50 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
429.61 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
47.70 |
- 31.79 |
3.00 |
1.43 |
431.11 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
317.47 |
|
| Debt |
7,254.98 |
|
| Value of Equity |
-6,937.51 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
-49.90 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
521 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
8,487 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
844 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
249 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
595 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
8,487 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
7% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
19% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
94% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
6% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-22 E |
|
|
|
|
1.50 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
-69.1% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
429.61 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
IRB Infra.Devl. |
149.70 |
5,261 |
169.41 |
14.85 |
11.88 |
2.84 |
15.10 |
0.88 |
6.05 |
2.43 |
3.34 |
12.01 |
5.87 |
5,942 |
57.39 |
44 |
-6.87 |
19.47 |
-30.85 |
3.79 |
| 2 |
Ircon Intl. |
427.75 |
4,023 |
423.83 |
- |
11.01 |
0.35 |
20.37 |
1.01 |
13.16 |
0.85 |
2.48 |
- |
12.64 |
4,130 |
89.18 |
302 |
36.66 |
- |
-48.65 |
- |
| 3 |
MEP Infrast. |
41.25 |
757 |
12.90 |
-14.17 |
19.16 |
1.53 |
-9.55 |
3.20 |
8.10 |
50.68 |
0.64 |
-13.20 |
-23.89 |
2,248 |
30.19 |
75 |
-30.30 |
40.62 |
-110.30 |
82.24 |
| 4 |
IL&FS Engg. |
12.75 |
167 |
-10.61 |
- |
17.25 |
- |
- |
- |
10.76 |
-19.00 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
42.25 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| 5 |
AGI Infra |
90.05 |
92 |
47.79 |
4.24 |
19.62 |
3.42 |
14.54 |
1.88 |
6.90 |
1.88 |
1.11 |
3.87 |
14.49 |
42 |
72.54 |
400 |
-75.11 |
- |
-90.50 |
- |
| 6 |
Jaypee Infratec. |
3.75 |
521 |
13.30 |
-34.70 |
-2.75 |
10.09 |
80.57 |
0.28 |
- |
1.59 |
- |
-34.70 |
-22.94 |
846 |
9.98 |
-1 |
-40.47 |
130.20 |
17.96 |
62.24 |
Comments
Post a Comment