|
Quantamental
Equity Research on JAY USHIN LTD | Release: 28 Nov 2018 18:05:42 UTC+05:30 |
Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE
CODE:Not Listed and BSE CODE:513252 |
| Last Close: |
INR 518.7 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 742.95 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 370.75 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
200.22 |
| Industry: |
Auto Parts & Equipment |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
43% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Jay Ushin Limited is engaged in the business of manufacturing
and sale of components, such as lock and key sets, combination switches,
heater control panels, and door latches for automobiles. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
9% |
38% |
54% |
|
| EBIT % |
20% |
62% |
56% |
|
| Earnings % |
163% |
192% |
129% |
|
| Book Value
% |
18% |
44% |
76% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
57% |
312% |
778% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
56.30 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.02 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
9.94 |
|
| (E) Others |
33.74 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
98 |
137 |
67 |
68 |
105 |
145 |
195 |
381 |
597 |
371 |
472 |
579 |
741 |
886 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
28% |
33% |
7% |
13% |
16% |
8% |
12% |
7% |
16% |
15% |
16% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
6.3 |
5.2 |
11.1 |
5.6 |
6.1 |
15.3 |
12.2 |
36.3 |
21.6 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
|
| EVTI |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
| EVTIFM |
6.3 |
5.2 |
11.1 |
5.6 |
6.1 |
15.3 |
12.2 |
36.3 |
21.6 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.7 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
|
| Dividend
Yield |
3% |
2% |
0% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
15% |
-1% |
-22% |
17% |
21% |
21% |
-3% |
-6% |
-9% |
9% |
11% |
15% |
15% |
14% |
|
|
| Detailed
Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
860.26 |
961.15 |
1,057.70 |
1,146.17 |
1,222.76 |
1,283.89 |
|
| EBITDA |
34.60 |
45.18 |
49.72 |
53.88 |
57.48 |
60.35 |
|
| EBIT |
19.10 |
27.86 |
32.33 |
36.72 |
42.26 |
46.86 |
|
| PBT |
8.12 |
16.88 |
21.48 |
26.38 |
33.73 |
40.36 |
|
| NPAT |
10.68 |
11.16 |
14.19 |
17.43 |
22.28 |
26.67 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
21.61 |
12.83 |
12.83 |
12.83 |
12.83 |
12.83 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
3.55 |
1.91 |
2.09 |
2.18 |
2.34 |
2.35 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
2.39 |
2.05 |
1.67 |
1.18 |
0.75 |
0.41 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.16 |
0.15 |
0.16 |
0.17 |
0.18 |
0.18 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
0.44 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
0.29 |
0.30 |
0.30 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
35.80 |
-116.53 |
-111.12 |
-102.68 |
-97.91 |
-94.00 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
597.09 |
370.75 |
471.60 |
579.35 |
740.65 |
886.35 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
16.88 |
21.48 |
26.38 |
33.73 |
40.36 |
|
| Interest |
10.98 |
10.86 |
10.33 |
8.53 |
6.50 |
|
| Depreciation |
17.32 |
17.39 |
17.16 |
15.22 |
13.50 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
45.18 |
49.72 |
53.88 |
57.48 |
60.35 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
29.83 |
32.82 |
35.57 |
37.94 |
39.84 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
476.44 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
29.83 |
32.82 |
35.57 |
37.94 |
516.28 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
346.72 |
|
| Debt |
59.96 |
|
| Value of Equity |
286.76 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
742.95 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
200 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
155 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
11 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
-3 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
14 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
155 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
9% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
20% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
44% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
56% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
15% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
39.84 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
5.8% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
476.44 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Motherson Sumi |
161.60 |
51,032 |
33.70 |
24.28 |
19.86 |
0.95 |
28.24 |
4.80 |
20.79 |
1.05 |
0.93 |
17.08 |
14.74 |
60,710 |
59.06 |
121 |
2.23 |
12.55 |
-19.87 |
-16.99 |
| 2 |
Bosch |
18,347.65 |
55,998 |
3,424.93 |
21.16 |
22.73 |
3.66 |
41.74 |
5.36 |
34.44 |
- |
0.54 |
16.45 |
34.69 |
13,362 |
70.49 |
200 |
-0.34 |
13.84 |
-2.55 |
18.86 |
| 3 |
Exide Inds. |
259.05 |
22,019 |
68.05 |
25.70 |
20.08 |
1.76 |
31.98 |
3.81 |
29.57 |
- |
0.93 |
17.86 |
27.15 |
11,361 |
45.99 |
148 |
-1.88 |
15.35 |
27.86 |
17.03 |
| 4 |
Amara Raja Batt. |
736.15 |
12,574 |
183.09 |
20.39 |
24.92 |
1.77 |
28.90 |
4.02 |
26.33 |
0.02 |
0.56 |
17.32 |
15.27 |
7,069 |
52.06 |
119 |
-1.44 |
22.81 |
6.37 |
-5.49 |
| 5 |
Varroc Engineer |
702.50 |
9,471 |
217.67 |
17.65 |
15.52 |
0.82 |
27.55 |
3.23 |
20.54 |
0.42 |
0.06 |
17.41 |
17.37 |
12,107 |
85.00 |
126 |
2.53 |
24.05 |
0.43 |
8.95 |
| 6 |
Jay Ushin |
518.70 |
200 |
187.12 |
41.90 |
9.11 |
0.35 |
11.72 |
2.77 |
15.90 |
2.39 |
0.58 |
37.35 |
35.61 |
1,007 |
56.30 |
74 |
11.43 |
15.98 |
151.98 |
74.32 |
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