|
Quantamental
Equity Research on GRINDWELL NORTON LTD | Release: 30 Nov 2018 18:15:42
UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GRINDWELL and BSE CODE:506076 |
| Last Close: |
INR 493.1 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 213.7 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 363.8 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
5459.60 |
| Industry: |
Other Industrial Products |
| Rating: |
STRONG SELL |
| Downside: |
-26% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Grindwell Norton is a holding company, which manufactures
abrasives. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
13% |
43% |
71% |
|
| EBIT % |
26% |
46% |
65% |
|
| Earnings % |
25% |
45% |
54% |
|
| Book Value
% |
11% |
61% |
93% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
36% |
44% |
317% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
0.00 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
0.00 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.00 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
0.00 |
|
| (E) Others |
100.00 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
93 |
112 |
134 |
123 |
154 |
354 |
327 |
377 |
511 |
364 |
425 |
480 |
527 |
567 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
25% |
21% |
23% |
19% |
15% |
17% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
16% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
16% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
11.9 |
14.9 |
14.5 |
13.9 |
20.4 |
37.9 |
34.4 |
35.0 |
37.8 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
|
| EVTI |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.8 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
| EVTIFM |
11.9 |
14.9 |
14.5 |
13.9 |
20.4 |
37.9 |
34.4 |
35.0 |
37.8 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
22.9 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
2.9 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
6.4 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
5.7 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
10% |
14% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
5% |
7% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
6% |
7% |
7% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
1,430.97 |
1,674.09 |
1,908.35 |
2,118.17 |
2,287.57 |
2,401.95 |
|
| EBITDA |
273.83 |
322.54 |
367.67 |
408.09 |
440.73 |
462.77 |
|
| EBIT |
228.99 |
270.08 |
313.80 |
354.39 |
388.81 |
418.27 |
|
| PBT |
227.46 |
268.55 |
313.80 |
354.39 |
388.81 |
418.27 |
|
| NPAT |
149.75 |
175.95 |
205.60 |
232.20 |
254.75 |
274.05 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
37.79 |
22.89 |
22.89 |
22.89 |
22.89 |
22.89 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
5.73 |
3.67 |
3.83 |
3.86 |
3.79 |
3.67 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.00 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.15 |
0.16 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.16 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
3.76 |
2.25 |
2.29 |
2.30 |
2.28 |
2.28 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
44.33 |
26.39 |
26.40 |
26.08 |
25.47 |
24.83 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
511.10 |
363.80 |
425.15 |
480.15 |
526.80 |
566.75 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
268.55 |
313.80 |
354.39 |
388.81 |
418.27 |
|
| Interest |
1.53 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
| Depreciation |
52.46 |
53.87 |
53.70 |
51.92 |
44.49 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
322.54 |
367.67 |
408.09 |
440.73 |
462.77 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
212.91 |
242.70 |
269.38 |
290.93 |
305.47 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
3,356.67 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
212.91 |
242.70 |
269.38 |
290.93 |
3,662.14 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
2,365.55 |
|
| Debt |
- |
|
| Value of Equity |
2,365.55 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
213.70 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
5,460 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.03 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
17% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
0% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
100% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
17% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
305.47 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
7.2% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
3,356.67 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Carborundum Uni. |
359.40 |
6,795 |
87.90 |
20.04 |
20.44 |
2.45 |
32.90 |
4.09 |
27.46 |
0.08 |
0.63 |
16.09 |
15.84 |
2,698 |
42.33 |
142 |
3.98 |
12.35 |
-3.92 |
7.32 |
| 2 |
Grindwell Norton |
493.10 |
5,460 |
90.99 |
20.52 |
23.19 |
2.97 |
34.52 |
5.42 |
32.33 |
- |
1.01 |
12.93 |
12.97 |
1,687 |
58.36 |
153 |
9.36 |
21.03 |
-6.79 |
12.98 |
| 3 |
Wendt India |
3,041.10 |
608 |
647.20 |
19.03 |
16.16 |
3.38 |
37.11 |
4.70 |
33.47 |
- |
0.82 |
11.78 |
12.84 |
170 |
79.74 |
160 |
-1.82 |
12.67 |
-14.34 |
73.58 |
| 4 |
Orient Abrasives |
30.05 |
359 |
17.25 |
6.78 |
10.38 |
1.87 |
23.89 |
1.74 |
21.35 |
0.31 |
0.83 |
5.59 |
6.91 |
222 |
63.57 |
208 |
-38.39 |
-26.36 |
-28.27 |
23.39 |
| 5 |
Welcast Steels |
698.00 |
45 |
528.93 |
9.38 |
7.75 |
0.17 |
20.96 |
1.32 |
48.03 |
0.15 |
0.29 |
8.61 |
7.25 |
295 |
74.85 |
97 |
14.08 |
46.97 |
454.55 |
12.96 |
| 6 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
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