|
Quantamental
Equity Research on CONFIDENCE PETROLEUM INDIA LTD | Release: 29 Nov 2018
15:20:25 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR |
Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:Not Listed and BSE CODE:526829 |
| Last Close: |
INR 34.6 |
| Fair Value: |
INR 61.25 |
| Est. Price by Mar 19: |
INR 58.1 |
| Market Capitalization (INR
Crs): |
947.47 |
| Industry: |
Oil Marketing & Distribution |
| Rating: |
STRONG BUY |
| Upside: |
77% |
| Company Profile |
|
|
| Confidence Petroleum India Limited is an India-based
manufacturer of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders for domestic, as well
as commercial use. |
| Growth Per Share |
|
|
| Particulars |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
|
| Revenue % |
22% |
28% |
15% |
|
| EBIT % |
163% |
-566% |
170% |
|
| Earnings % |
436% |
-217% |
1183% |
|
| Book Value
% |
42% |
14% |
2% |
|
| Stock Total
Return % |
386% |
1674% |
1437% |
|
|
| Share holding
pattern |
| Particulars |
%age |
|
| (A) Promoter
& Promoter Group |
51.18 |
|
| (B) FII/FPI |
4.96 |
|
| (C)
DII/Insurance Companies |
0.95 |
|
| (D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. |
22.19 |
|
| (E) Others |
20.72 |
|
| Grand Total |
100.00 |
|
|
| Fundamentals
(Historical and Estimated) |
| Particulars |
Mar-10 |
Mar-11 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-13 |
Mar-14 |
Mar-15 |
Mar-16 |
Mar-17 |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Price |
9 |
18 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
40 |
58 |
79 |
101 |
122 |
137 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
17% |
27% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
-11% |
0% |
3% |
11% |
18% |
20% |
20% |
20% |
18% |
|
| Price to
Earning |
7.9 |
7.2 |
18.5 |
32.2 |
21.5 |
-2.5 |
124.5 |
42.6 |
38.5 |
30.1 |
30.1 |
30.1 |
30.1 |
30.1 |
|
| EVTI |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
|
| EVTIFM |
7.9 |
7.2 |
18.5 |
32.2 |
21.5 |
-2.5 |
124.5 |
42.6 |
38.5 |
30.1 |
30.1 |
30.1 |
30.1 |
30.1 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
1.4 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
4.3 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
| Dividend Yield |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
|
| Cash Flow to
Firm |
-1% |
7% |
22% |
29% |
41% |
21% |
16% |
6% |
2% |
-3% |
0% |
3% |
5% |
9% |
|
|
| Detailed Estimates |
| Title |
Mar-18 |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| Sales |
606.75 |
963.94 |
1,401.59 |
1,849.19 |
2,190.69 |
2,300.22 |
|
| EBITDA |
74.18 |
130.28 |
189.43 |
249.92 |
296.08 |
310.88 |
|
| EBIT |
49.68 |
91.36 |
133.28 |
176.48 |
209.91 |
221.39 |
|
| PBT |
37.59 |
79.27 |
107.19 |
138.16 |
166.81 |
187.02 |
|
| NPAT |
26.82 |
52.84 |
71.45 |
92.09 |
111.19 |
124.66 |
|
| Price to
Earning |
38.54 |
30.10 |
30.10 |
30.10 |
30.10 |
30.10 |
|
| Price to Book
Value |
4.26 |
5.42 |
5.95 |
6.17 |
6.02 |
5.56 |
|
| Debt to
Equity |
0.33 |
0.60 |
0.71 |
0.64 |
0.41 |
0.04 |
|
| Return on
Equity |
0.11 |
0.18 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0.18 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI) |
1.81 |
1.81 |
1.70 |
1.64 |
1.62 |
1.63 |
|
| Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM) |
34.13 |
31.82 |
29.80 |
28.65 |
28.16 |
28.24 |
|
| Price or Est.
Share Prices |
39.93 |
58.10 |
78.60 |
101.35 |
122.40 |
137.25 |
|
|
| DISCOUNTED CASH
FLOW |
| Title |
Mar-19 E |
Mar-20 E |
Mar-21 E |
Mar-22 E |
Mar-23 E |
|
| PBT |
79.27 |
107.19 |
138.16 |
166.81 |
187.02 |
|
| Interest |
12.09 |
26.09 |
38.32 |
43.10 |
34.37 |
|
| Depreciation |
38.92 |
56.15 |
73.44 |
86.17 |
89.49 |
|
| Cash Flow
Before Tax |
130.28 |
189.43 |
249.92 |
296.08 |
310.88 |
|
| Tax Rate |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
33.99 |
|
| Cash Flow
After Tax |
86.00 |
125.04 |
164.98 |
195.44 |
205.21 |
|
| Terminal Cash
Flow |
- |
2,780.34 |
|
| Total Cash
Flow |
86.00 |
125.04 |
164.98 |
195.44 |
2,985.55 |
|
| Present Value of
Cash Flow |
1,706.71 |
|
| Debt |
29.82 |
|
| Value of Equity |
1,676.89 |
|
| Fair Value Per
Share |
61.25 |
|
|
| Equity |
|
|
|
|
947 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
81 |
|
|
| Beta |
Take from Reuters |
|
|
1.16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Risk Free Rate |
Prevailing Yield in India |
|
|
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Market Risk Premium |
Assuming 8.82% premium
for Equity Investments |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Interest Paid |
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
| Tax Benefit |
|
|
|
|
4 |
|
| Interest Net of Tax |
|
|
|
|
9 |
|
| Debt |
|
|
|
|
81 |
|
| Cost of Debt |
|
|
|
|
11% |
|
| Cost of Equity |
|
|
|
|
18% |
|
| Debt Weight |
|
|
|
|
8% |
|
| Equity Weight |
|
|
|
|
92% |
|
| WACC |
|
|
|
|
17% |
|
|
| Cash Flow of Mar-23 E |
|
|
|
|
205.21 |
|
| Growth |
|
|
|
|
8.7% |
|
| Present Value of Terminal
Cashflow |
|
|
|
|
2,780.34 |
|
|
| Peer Comparision |
| # |
Name |
CMP
Rs. |
Mar
Cap Rs.Cr. |
B.V.
Rs. |
Annualized
ROE % |
ROCE
% |
Latest
EVTI |
Latest
EVTIFM |
CMP
/ BV |
P/E |
Debt
/ Eq |
Div
Yld % |
Growth
Rate R % |
SGR
% |
Ann
Total Income |
PQEIOI |
QoQ
Sales % |
Qtr
Sales Var % |
QoQ
Profits % |
Qtr
Profit Var % |
Graham's
Number Rs. |
| 1 |
Gujarat Gas |
635.95 |
8,756 |
140.39 |
10.69 |
16.55 |
1.38 |
47.16 |
4.53 |
30.36 |
1.26 |
0.63 |
8.67 |
7.53 |
7,933 |
60.89 |
393 |
11.29 |
41.18 |
-66.17 |
-32.76 |
| 2 |
Venky's (India) |
2,332.05 |
3,285 |
557.20 |
3.34 |
36.17 |
1.34 |
143.54 |
4.19 |
16.66 |
0.49 |
0.34 |
3.15 |
3.77 |
2,604 |
56.11 |
4,563 |
-14.55 |
9.92 |
-92.29 |
-79.81 |
| 3 |
NESCO |
438.40 |
3,089 |
152.54 |
24.65 |
25.97 |
6.14 |
13.58 |
2.87 |
17.93 |
- |
0.52 |
22.39 |
44.21 |
421 |
68.18 |
70 |
32.57 |
21.17 |
35.77 |
1.90 |
| 4 |
Security & Intel |
812.10 |
5,954 |
155.51 |
21.16 |
19.51 |
0.87 |
25.70 |
5.22 |
35.87 |
0.54 |
0.43 |
17.81 |
14.69 |
6,781 |
75.36 |
154 |
4.89 |
15.77 |
10.89 |
-25.68 |
| 5 |
Century Ply. |
173.35 |
3,851 |
40.25 |
22.27 |
17.08 |
1.89 |
21.85 |
4.31 |
23.26 |
0.65 |
0.58 |
19.10 |
19.41 |
2,262 |
72.27 |
105 |
5.06 |
18.94 |
-16.64 |
-5.78 |
| 6 |
Confidence Petro |
34.60 |
947 |
13.16 |
35.11 |
16.11 |
1.01 |
14.58 |
2.63 |
22.41 |
0.33 |
0.14 |
33.42 |
20.90 |
985 |
26.31 |
63 |
29.09 |
87.34 |
25.78 |
169.30 |
Comments
Post a Comment